Introduction: International
Relations Theory of War
This book deals with the International Relations Theory of War. The realist
theory, which is also known as political realism, emphasizes the competi-
tive aspects and conflicts of international politics, and it is usually at odds
with political idealism or liberalism, which tends to emphasize coopera-
tion. This book is based on research that deals primarily with the develop-
ment of a theory and an analytic model for predicting the results of wars.
The theory that has been developed is a systemic theory of international
policy systems,^1 known as the international relations theory of war. It deals
with factors that determine international outcomes—in other words, the
consequences of political policy in an international forces system. Out-
comes are a result of the conduct of a certain political force and are distinct
from its conduct in and of itself.
In international relations theory of war terms, the political forces sys-
tem that prevailed in 1992–2016 was a system consisting of a sole polar
power, a hyperpower with a democratic regime—the United States. A
unipolar system headed by a democratic hyperpower will tend to war
more than a bipolar system in which one of the two superpowers is
a dictatorship, such as the bipolar system of 1946–1991, in which the
Soviet Union was a regime of that kind. Similarly, the behavior of a
country acting toward achieving territorial expansion by war, such as
Germany in both world wars, may be in complete contrast to its behav-
ioral outcomes. In other words, offensive behavior, whose purpose was
expansion, paradoxically led to Germany’s territorial contraction at the
end of these two wars.
This book tries to answer two key questions. The first is why certain
periods are more prone to war than others. The second is why certain wars
that involve polar powers end with their territorial expansion, whereas