152 International Relations Theory of War
INTERNATIONAL OUTCOMES: ANALYSIS
AND EVALUATION
INDEX OF STABILITY OF INTERNATIONAL SYSTEMS
The conclusions concerning the stability of the possible international
system models correspond with the study assumptions. The two instances
of multipolarity in 1849–1870 and 1910–1945 proved to be the least stable
of the systems. The three instances of bipolarity, 1816–1848, 1871–1909,
and 1946–1991, were discovered to be the most stable. The single instance
of unipolarity, 1992–2016, has proved to be somewhere in the middle—
more stable than multipolarity but less stable than bipolarity. Table 5.1
summarizes the data.
In the two multipolar systems that were studied, which lasted for 58
years in total, 1849–1870 and 1910–1945, a total of 18 wars involving polar
powers were fought—two central wars, seven major wars, and nine minor
wars. The number of war years at that time was 26.1, 45 percent of the
entire period; the average length in days of the wars was 530 days each;
and the total number of deaths in these wars was 27,178,565.
In the three bipolar systems that were studied, which lasted for 118
years in total, 1816–1848, 1871–1909, and 1945–1991, five wars involving
polar powers were fought. There were no central wars or major wars, and
there were a total of five minor wars. The total number of war years in that
period was 12.8, 10.8 percent of the entire period; the average length in
days of the wars was 928 days per war; and the total number of deaths in
these wars was 2,1051,418.
In the only unipolar system that has been studied, which existed for 24
years in total, 1992–2016, two wars involving the polar power were fought.
These wars cannot be cataloged as central, major, or minor wars because
these systems are composed of a single polar power. The total number of
war years in this period was 3.1, 13 percent of the entire period; the aver-
age length of the wars in days is 562.5 days per war; and the total number
of deaths in the wars was 39,092.
As the preceding table shows, the most important index for examining
the stability of international systems—the total number of years in which
there was a war in each of the three systems—proves the starting point of
the theory that multipolar systems will be the least stable. The two sen-
tences of the multipolar systems had 45 percent of the war years out of
the total number of years in the systems. Bipolar systems will be the most
stable—the three instances of bipolar systems contained 10.8 percent of the
war years out of the total number of years in which the systems existed.
Unipolar systems will be in the middle—they will be more stable than
multipolar systems and less stable than bipolar systems. The only instance
of unipolar systems had 13 percent of the war years out of the total num-
ber of years existing in the systems.