War—Theory and Analysis of Results 15
because, in systems of this type, there is only one polar power—a single
hyperpower.
Minor wars are the smallest type of wars out of the three possible fami-
lies involving a single polar power fighting against a country or countries
that are not polar powers. Minor wars may occur in any of the possible
three polarity models—multipolar, bipolar, or unipolar.
SYSTEMIC INTERNATIONAL OUTCOMES
In theoretical research of international relations, it is common to consider
the term stability as describing the stability of international systems and
the durability of international systems alike. Wohlforth defines stability as
peacefulness and durability.^3 Waltz merged these two meanings^4 but later
defined stability through durability only.^5 The international relations theory
of war avoids the ambiguity by making a distinction between two com-
ponents: (1) international systems durability, which is defined as the time
that a single polarity model has remained in place until being replaced
by another polarity model, and (2) international systems stability, which is
defined through the combination of four components of war: the number,
frequency, duration, and lethality of wars in which the polar powers are
involved in the three polarity models.
I shall briefly discuss the durability of international systems in order to
assert the difference between it and the stability of international systems
while avoiding drawing any erroneous conclusions.
SYSTEMIC FACTORS AND INTERNATIONAL
SYSTEMS DURABILITY
The durability of international systems is defined as the time for which
a given polarity model stays in place until being replaced by another
polarity model. A change in the durability of international systems may
occur in two main ways. One is a change of the system through a transi-
tion from its current anarchic structure to a hierarchical structure. This
phenomenon did not occur in the past and will probably not occur in the
visible future.^6 The other is a change within the system manifesting in a
change in the existing polarity model in the system. This phenomenon
has occurred in the past and will almost certainly continue to occur in the
future too as long as the anarchic structure of the international system
remains in place.
To paraphrase Alexander Wendt,^7 “The polarity of the system is not
determined by policy,” and international systems do not rise and fall
because of the will or lack of will of countries or individuals.^8 Rather,
the polarity of the system changes following the transhistoric systemic