72 International Relations Theory of War
- The theory has been examined using two main approaches of
observation—quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis—because nei-
ther method is preferable over the other.^7- The quantitative analysis approach has been selected because at the
time of empiric examination of historical events it is important to
increase the number of test cases examined to avoid the main prob-
lem of causal deduction based on too few cases.^8 - Qualitative analysis and the test cases approach: according to this
approach, test cases are assessed using reliance on historical records
as a database not only for studying a single test case but also for
equal research between a large number of test cases.^9
- The quantitative analysis approach has been selected because at the
- The study does not present a detailed historical description of the test
cases being assessed but rather focuses on the development of the
causal explanations for the events being studied.^10 - The study is attempting to present an a priori forecast of these two out-
comes in the current unipolar system of 1992–2016 and in other interna-
tional systems that will be formed in the future,^11 and not just to explain
a posteriori the two international outcomes that it assesses in interna-
tional systems that have occurred in the past. - The study is based on the method of structured, focused comparison
and uses historical knowledge for supporting the theory and explain-
ing the complexity of the two phenomena that the theory is attempting
to explain.^12 - The selection of test cases in the qualitative study was based on the
similarity and difference methods:^13- The similarity method was used for assessing test cases under the same
international system models because the similar results of the two
variables explained under those international system models prove
that the pleas presented by the theory were correct. The three most sig-
nificant wars in the different multipolar systems have been examined:
the Crimean War in the multipolar system of the 19th century and the
First and the Second World Wars in the multipolar system of the 20th
century. In these three cases, the explanatory variable—the polarity
of the system—is kept constant. The identical value of this variable
provides the conditions for proving the argument of the study that
multipolar systems encourage the great powers constituting them to
fight more and larger wars than the two other polarity models. - The difference model was used for assessing five test cases in which
polar powers fought Afghanistan: the First (1838–1842), Second
(1878–1880), and Third (1919) Anglo-Afghan Wars; the Soviet-Afghan
War (1979–1988); and the U.S.-Afghan War (2001). In these five cases,
most key variables are held constant except for the explanatory vari-
able, the polarity of the international systems, which varies between
the five test cases. The difference in the explanatory variable helps
prove the differences in the territorial outcomes of these five wars.
- The similarity method was used for assessing test cases under the same