NOURIEL ROUBINI
An NYU economist who predicted
the 2008 crash, Roubini said that
short-term growth from fiscal
stimulus is “unsustainable” and
that a correction will bring the
current bull market to a decisive
end. Citing several factors like
trade disputes, high debt levels,
rising inflation, and an overvalued
stock market, Roubini argued
that conditions will be “ripe for
a financial crisis” and a global
recession by 2020.
BLACKROCK
BlackRock’s global chief invest-
ment strategist Richard Turnill
warned of the rising probability
of a downturn late last year in an
interview withFortune. He attrib-
uted much of that risk to the ongo-
ing trade conflict with China, rising
interest rates, and massive debt
levels. Slowing corporate earnings
growth and a weakening global
economy may further stoke the
flames. In addition, BlackRock’s
2019 Global Investment Outlook puts
the odds of a recession by the start
of 2021 at more than 50%.AMERICA’S CFOs
Indeed, more than 80% of U.S.
chief financial officers believe a
recession will hit the economy by
the end of 2020, according to a
Duke University/CFO Global
Business Outlook survey released
late last year.COUNTERPOINT:
LARRY KUDLOW
Of course, not everyone is
bearish. One source of continued
economic confidence is the
Trump administration, whose tax
cuts and deregulatory moves
many credit with spurring recent
growth. Appearing recently on
CNBC, National Economic
Council director Larry Kudlow
responded to recession worries
by citing low unemployment and
accelerating blue-collar wage
growth. “The economy is very
strong,” he said. “The private
sector is very strong. And I
know there’s a lot of pessimism
out there. I do not share that
pessimism.”FORECASTING Invest
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