The Washington Post - 20.02.2020

thursday, february 20 , 2020. the washington post EZ M2 A

election 2020

Sanders has seen a big jump in

support among voters under 50

and is now backed by 50 percent o f

that group, up from 34 percent in

January. H e holds a 3-to-1 lead over

his rivals among these voters.

Sanders also has more than dou-

bled his support among black vot-

ers and has gained among whites

without c ollege degrees.

Bloomberg’s growth was fueled

by more support among older vot-

ers and among white voters with

college degrees. Buttigieg, Warren

and Klobuchar saw no significant

shifts in their coalitions.

Many e stablishment Democrats

fear that Sanders, a democratic

socialist, would be considered too

far left to win a general election

and that he could cost Democratic

candidates for House or Senate

their elections if he were at the top

of the ticket.

Democrats nationally appear to

be much less concerned about

Sanders’s ideological stances than

voters in New Hampshire’s Demo-

cratic primary last week. In a New

Hampshire exit poll, 50 percent of

Democratic primary voters said

Sanders’s positions on the issues

were “too liberal,” an opinion

shared by only 17 p ercent of Demo-

cratic-leaning adults in the nation-

al Post-ABC poll.

In the Post-ABC poll, 62 percent

of Democratic-leaning adults say

Sanders is “about right” i deologi-

cally, almost 20 points higher than

the share who said the same in the

New Hampshire exit poll. Comfort

with Sanders’s p ositions is roughly

on par with Biden’s (63 percent),

Warren’s (63 percent) and Butt-

igieg’s ( 60 percent).

In a measure of how Democrats

see Sanders as a candidate against

Trump, 72 percent say they believe

he would defeat the president.

Among Democrats, 69 percent

think Bloomberg would win

against Trump, and 68 percent say

that of Biden. Perceptions of War-

ren and Buttigieg as general-elec-

tion candidates are also positive

but not as strong as the others.

Democrats are roughly split on

whether Klobuchar or Trump

would prevail in a hypothetical

matchup.

If Sanders were to become the

nominee, about half of all Ameri-

cans say it makes no difference in

their vote that he is a socialist,

including about 7 in 10 Democrats.

But nearly 4 in 10 adults say that

fact makes them more likely to

oppose him, including 37 percent

of independents and 79 percent of

Republicans. Just under 1 in 10

adults say it makes them more

likely to support him. Views of

Sanders’s i dentification as a demo-

cratic socialist are slightly less neg-

ative.

The president’s approval rating

stands at 43 percent, with 53 per-

cent disapproving, showing no

real change in the past month. His

approval on handling the economy

remains net positive, with 52 per-

cent saying they approve of the job

16 percent in the new survey. He

faces significant hurdles as he at-

tempts to mount a comeback, with

his hopes pinned on success in

Nevada and especially S outh Caro-

lina, where he had long been the

favorite of African American vot-

ers who make up a hefty majority

of the Democratic electorate there.

Bloomberg, who is skipping the

first four states but has poured

hundreds of millions of dollars

into television ads in states with

primaries in March, stands at

14 percent, up from 8 percent in

January. He has only recently be-

gun to receive significant c riticism

from the other candidates, how -

ever.

Warren saw no change in her

national support, remaining at

12 percent. Buttigieg, despite his

strong performances in Iowa and

New Hampshire, runs fifth nation-

ally at 8 percent, ticking up from

5 percent a month ago. Klobuchar

stands at 7 percent in the new

national poll, up from 3 percent.

Buttigieg and Klobuchar face a

similar challenge, which is to ap-

peal to a broader coalition of voters

in the coming two early-state con-

tests.

Biden’s poor finishes in Iowa

and New Hampshire appear to

have robbed him of his image as

the most electable against Presi-

dent Trump in November — the

chief attribute he has used to de-

fine his campaign.

By a wide margin, 58 percent to

38 percent, Democrats say they

would rather nominate a candi-

date who can defeat Trump than

one who agrees with them on ma-

jor issues.

Electability is a subjective judg-

ment, however, and the former

vice president is paying the price

for his failure t o draw m ore signifi-

cant backing from voters in the

first two states. A month ago,

38 percent of Democratic-leaning

adults cited Biden when asked

which candidate has the best

chance to defeat Tr ump, making

him their top choice in that regard.

To day that has dropped by half, to

19 percent.

In the new poll, Sanders is seen

as the most electable, cited by

30 percent of Democratic leaners

as best situated to beat Trump.

Bloomberg is cited by 18 percent

on this question, with no other

Democrat c lose to double digits.

In the past month, Biden has

lost support among three key con-

stituency groups: African Ameri-

cans, older voters and whites with-

out college degrees, previously the

bulwarks of his campaign. In a

Post-Ipsos poll t his year, Biden was

backed by 48 percent of African

American voters. To day that has

fallen to 31 percent. Compared

with January’s Post-ABC poll, his

support has been cut nearly in half

among voters over age 50 and

stands at 20 percent; among non-

college whites, support for Biden

plummeted from 33 percent to

11 percent.

BY DAN BALZ

AND SCOTT CLEMENT

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), on
the strength of his performances
in Iowa and New Hampshire, has
surged nationally and now h olds a
sizable lead over all his rivals for
the Democratic presidential nom-
ination, according to a Washing-
ton Post-ABC News poll.
Former vice president Joe
Biden, who led Sanders in a Post-
ABC national poll in January, has
seen a sharp drop in his support
after finishing fourth in the Iowa
caucuses and fifth in the New
Hampshire primary. Biden is now
in a battle for second place with
former New York mayor Mike
Bloomberg and Sen. Elizabeth
Warren (D-Mass.).
Former South Bend, Ind., mayor
Pete Buttigieg, who won the state-
delegate-count battle in the Iowa
caucuses and came a close second
to Sanders in New Hampshire, i s in
single digits nationally, roughly
even with Sen. A my K lobuchar (D-
Minn.), whose s urprise third-place
finish in New Hampshire further
scrambled the Democratic contest.
The poll underscores how
quickly s upport for candidates can
change in national polls on the
strength of results from individual
primaries and caucuses. The find-
ings came on the day of a Demo-
cratic debate in Las Vegas that was
to include Bloomberg on the stage
for the first time and represented a
high-stakes gamble for all the can-
didates.
The poll also comes just days
ahead of the third contest on the
calendar, Saturday’s Nevada cau-
cuses, with the South Carolina pri-
mary to follow on Feb. 29. After
South Carolina, the campaign goes
national, with 14 states holding
contests on March 3, Super Tues-
day, and crucial primaries in a
variety of big states later in the
month.
On the basis of the new national
poll, Sanders appears well-posi-
tioned to accumulate delegates in
those states and, possibly, emerge
by the end of March with a dele-
gate advantage over his rivals. He
is aided in his bid to accumulate
more delegates by the fractured
support among the more moder-
ate candidates in the field. All are
jockeying to become the principal
rival to the senator representing
Vermont, who has a firm hold on
the party’s l iberal wing.
The Post-ABC poll shows Sand-
ers, who got more votes in Iowa
than any other candidate ahead of
his narrow win in New Hampshire,
with the support of 32 percent of
Democrats and Democratic-lean-
ing registered voters. That is an
increase of nine percentage points
since January. He holds double-
digit leads among both women
and men, as well as among those
who say they are certain to vote in
their state’s primary or caucuses.
Biden, who was at 32 percent
support in January, has fallen to

pling error of plus or minus 3.5 per-

centage points; the error margin is

four points among the sample of

913 registered v oters and six points

among the sample of 408 Demo-

crats and Democratic-leaning reg-

istered voters.

[email protected]

[email protected]

Emily Guskin contributed to this

report.

the margin of error of Trump in

these measures. Across all match-

ups, Tr ump is in a similar position

as January, but better off than last

October.

The Post-ABC poll was conduct-

ed by telephone from Feb. 14-

among a random national sample

of 1,0 66 adults, 65 percent of

whom were reached on cellphones

and 35 percent on landlines. Over-

all results have a margin of sam-

he is doing and 40 percent disap-

proving. Last month, 56 percent

gave him a positive rating.

Looking ahead to November,

the poll tested six Democrats in

hypothetical general-election

matchups. Biden, Sanders and

Bloomberg fare best, edging

Trump by five to seven points, with

Trump receiving 45 percent sup-

port against each. Buttigieg,

Klobuchar and Warren are within

POLL Washington Post-ABC News Poll

Q: Please tell me whom you’d vote for in the primary or caucus in your state. Which candidate would you lean

toward? (Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independent registered voters)

Young voters are Sanders’s base, but he is competitive across racial,

ideological and educational groups

ALL DEMOCRATIC-LEANING VOTERS

Mike Bloomberg

14

Elizabeth Warren

12

Bernie Sanders

32 % 16

Joe Biden

White

Sanders 30

Warren 13

Biden 10

Bloomberg 17

Sanders 50%

Warren 15

Biden 12

Bloomberg 6

Under 50 years old

Black

28

10

31

15

14%

8

20

23

Over 50 years old

White non-college

35

10

11

15

Liberal

39

19

9

10

White college graduate

22

16

9

19

Moderate/Conservative

28

6

21

17

Q: Please tell me whom you’d vote for in the primary or

caucus in your state. Which candidate would you lean

toward? (Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning

independent registered voters)

Sanders takes large lead in national

Democratic support following Iowa and

New Hampshire

January February

32 %

16

14

12

8

7

Sanders

Biden

Bloomberg

Warren

Buttigieg

Klobuchar

23

32 %

8

12

5

3

Sanders

Biden

Bloomberg

Warren

Pete Buttigieg

Amy Klobuchar

Q: Regardless of whom you may support, which

candidate do you think has the best chance to

defeat Donald Trump in the general election?

(Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning adults)

Biden’s reputation as most

electable Democrat has evaporated

0

40 percent

30

20

10

July ‘19 Sept. Jan. ‘20Feb.

45%

42

38

18

14

18

1 8

7

19 Biden

5 Buttigieg

4 Klobuchar

3 Warren

18 Bloomberg

30 % Sanders

BRITTANY RENEE MAYES/THE WASHINGTON POST

Source: Feb. 14-17 , 20 20 , Washington Post-ABC News poll of 466 Democratic and Democratic-leaning adults with an error margin of +/- 5.

percentage points and 408 Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters with an error margin of +/- 6 points.

Note: Candidates with 2% or less overall support and

“no opinion” not shown.

Note: Opinions of 2% and lower and those with no

opinion not shown.

Note: Candidates with 10% or less overall support and

“no opinion” not shown.

Sanders rockets into the national lead as Biden plummets

BY AARON BLAKE

The Democratic presidential
candidates t ook part in a d ebate
in Nevada o n Wednesday, j ust
days b efore t he Democratic
caucuses there.
Below, some winners a nd
losers.

Winners

Bernie Sanders: You w ouldn’t
have thought from watching the
debate that Sanders was the o ne
threatening to open u p a
potentially i nsurmountable
delegate l ead in t he weeks ahead.
Instead, the candidates mostly
focused on Mike B loomberg and
arguably l anded t ougher attacks
on one another than o n Sanders.
Sanders did h ave to defend
himself o n some s ticky s ubjects,
from his r efusal t o disclose more
about his health to a powerful
Nevada union’s c riticism of his
Medicare-for-all p lan. But there
wasn’t much t o suggest his
momentum would c hange.
Elizabeth Warren’s
takedowns of Bloomberg: A fter
clashing with Sanders in t he last
debate, Warren d id him a massive
favor by t aking a chain saw to
Bloomberg. S he j umped i n early,
throwing out s ome d erogatory
quotes about women — “fat
broads” a nd “horse-faced
lesbians” — and then pointing o ut
they weren’t said by President
Trump but instead r eportedly by
Bloomberg. L ater, she attacked
Bloomberg’s apology for h is stop-
and-frisk policy, which
disproportionately targeted
minorities. “ This isn’t a bout how
it turned o ut; this i s about w hat it
was d esigned to do to begin with,”

Warren said. And then s he w ent

after h im for n ot sufficiently

addressing the treatment o f

women at h is companies, before

pressing him t o release women

from nondisclosure agreements.

Others piled o n, a nd B loomberg

didn’t have m uch o f an answer for

any of it.

The moderators: At t he s tart,

“NBC Nightly News” host Lester

Holt encouraged the candidates

“to directly e ngage with each

other on the i ssues.” The

candidates h eeded that. The

result was the m ost substantive

debate w ith b y far t he most

contrasts to date. And that’s what

debates should be about:

competing v isions and

arguments.

Losers

Bloomberg: The mayor was

the b ig target f rom the get-go. He

came off as very technocratic, and

he often didn’t j ump in to defend

himself, apparently h oping the

bad m oments would pass. But

they persisted.

Maybe the m ost brutal a ttacks

were on stop-and-frisk.

Bloomberg said he had s imply

been wrong about the policy b ut

that he e ventually came around.

That s kirted the fact that he

defended i t well i nto this decade,

and t hat it stopped n ot b ecause o f

his personal evolution, but

because of a court o rder.

A rare punch t hat seemed to

land for Bloomberg was w hen h e

took on Sanders for s aying there

shouldn’t b e billionaires. “I c an’t

think of a way that would make it

easier for D onald Trump to get

reelected than listening to this

conversation,” Bloomberg s aid,

before comparing Sanders’s

position to “communism.” T hat

may have g one t oo far, b ut it’s t he

contrast he wants to draw.

Bloomberg has r un millions of

dollars’ worth of ads largely

uncontested in s tates w here the

other candidates a ren’t yet

focused. So Wednesday was a

baptism by fire. I t’s tough to argue

he didn’t g et b urned.

Joe Biden: I f there was a

bystander on t he debate stage

Tuesday night, it was Biden.

There w as nothing there to

suggest h e might r escue his

struggling c ampaign. That s aid,

he still s eems well-positioned in

the S outh Carolina primary. He

had b etter h ope so.

Amy Klobuchar: She’s

regularly been named a winner in

these debates, but she seemed

desperate and l ess prepared a t

times Wednesday. S he h ad a

particularly rough exchange o n

how she hadn’t b een a ble t o tell a

reporter the n ame o f Mexico’s

president. T hen s he tried t o recite

other trivia about foreign leaders

but s tumbled. She needed more

given where she is i n this r ace.

Sanders’s claim about his

supporters: A n early line o f

attack o n Sanders was the

nastiness of h is supporters,

particularly online. “ Why is it

especially the c ase a mong your

supporters?” Pete Buttigieg asked

Sanders, who said h e didn’t t hink

it was t he case. S anders backers

may not have a monopoly on s uch

tactics, but i t’s certainly more of

an issue with them, as anyone

who writes about h is c ampaign

can tell you. D enying t hat it’s

unusual skirts the issue.

[email protected]

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