BOTH BLACK
AND WHITE BOYS
HAVE BETTER
OUTCOMES
IN GOOD
NEIGHBORHOODS:
PLACES WITH
LOW POVERTY
RATES AND
HIGH-QUALITY
SCHOOLS
VIEWPOINT
Raj Chetty + David Williams
THE AMERICAN DREAM BY THE NUMBERS
Economic disparitiEs bEtwEEn racial groups havE
persisted for centuries in America. To understand the drivers of
these disparities, we analyzed new data on 20 million children
to examine how economic outcomes change across generations:
not just where people are today, but where their children will
likely end up. We find that race matters—even among families in
the same socioeconomic class. For example, black children born
to low-income parents have just a 2.5% chance of rising to the
top fifth of the household- income distribution as adults. White
children born into families with the same income are four times
more likely to reach that threshold.
Perhaps most surprising, the data reveal that growing up in a
high-income family provides no insulation from these dispari-
ties. Black children have very high rates of downward mobility,
such that even when they grow up in affluent families, they still
have a very strong likelihood of ending up at the bottom of the
income distribution.
For white Americans, pursuing the American Dream is like
climbing an income ladder. For black Americans, it’s more like
being on a treadmill: even after you climb out of poverty in one
generation, there is a very high probability of the next generation
being pulled back down.
Further investigation reveals that these gaps are entirely
driven by men’s outcomes. Black and white women growing up
in families with comparable incomes have similar incomes as
adults. But black and white men growing up in families with the
same income see substantial gaps throughout their lives. Incar-
ceration rates are especially stark: over 20% of black men born to
the lowest-income families are incarcerated on a given day.
These findings are deeply personal for both of us: one,
an immigrant from India whose family was drawn to the U.S. by
the promise of the American Dream; the other, raised in Detroit,
the child of an African father and white mother, the same demo-
graphic for whom that dream has become almost nonexistent.
Our findings show that family characteristics and innate
abilities are not the root of the problem. Both black and white
boys have better outcomes in good neighborhoods: places
with low poverty rates and high-quality schools. Black men
are especially likely to thrive in areas with low levels of racial
bias and a larger fraction of two-parent households in the black
community. These findings show that the black-white gap is not
immutable: more efficient programs and targeted policies have
the potential to make a lasting difference.
Our organization has been working with housing authorities
in the Seattle area to pilot one program called Creating Moves
to Opportunity (CMTO). The
program focuses on reducing
the challenges that families face
when using rental assistance
from the federal government
to find housing in upwardly
mobile neighborhoods.
Families that receive housing
counselors and other support
through CMTO are almost
four times more likely to move
to these high- opportunity
neighborhoods. Children living
in these places are more likely to
attend college and earn more in
adulthood. This program shows
that the segregation endemic
to many cities can be addressed
through modest changes.
Ultimately we must
ensure that all neighborhoods
provide access to opportunity.
Promising demonstrations,
like the Harlem Children’s
Zone in New York City, have
transformed communities and
the lives of many black youth.
But more work is needed to
better understand how to
create such neighborhood
transformation at scale.
Further, we need more
research to understand why
even young men in affluent
families are not immune to the
pull of downward mobility.
Helping middle- and higher-
income black families keep
their position is as important
as understanding how to create
more upward mobility for all.
We all want the same thing
for our children: the idea that
no matter where you start in
life you have the opportunity
to achieve success. The new
science of opportunity can
point to real solutions that can
change lives and help build a
future where opportunity isn’t
just the American Dream, but
the American way.Chetty, a professor at Harvard
University, is the founder of
Opportunity Insights. Williams
serves as its director of policy
outreach