2020-03-12_Beijing_Review

18 BEIJING REVIEW MARCH 12, 2020 http://www.bjreview.com

WORLD

A

s the novel coronavirus disease
(COVID-19) has spread beyond China to
all continents except Antarctica, it will
inevitably impact the Asia-Pacific economy in
the short term. But from the medium and long-
term perspective, there is no need to be overly
pessimistic.
Some reports have compared the situation
to 2003, when the severe acute respiratory syn-
drome (SARS) that broke out in China spread
to more than two dozen countries. However,
as both China’s conditions and the global land-
scape have evolved dramatically since then, the
LQßXHQFHRI&29,'RQWKHHFRQRP\ZLOOEH
different.

A different scenario

The SARS outbreak did not seriously affect the
HFRQRPLFJURZWKRIWKH$VLD3DFLĶFRUWKHUHVW
of the world. In 2003, with rapid expansion of
economic globalization, new technologies and
rapid growth in global trade, investment and
financial sectors, the global GDP growth was
2.96 percent, higher than in 2002, according to
the World Bank. From 2004 to 2007, the annual
GDP growth rate in the Asia-Pacific remained
above 5 percent. The upsurge continued until
WKHĶQDQFLDOFULVLVHUXSWHGLQWKH86LQ
However, things are different now. The
world economy, still mired in the aftermath of
the financial crisis in 2008, is further weighed
down by an anti-globalization tide and lack of
growth drivers. China’s role as a world economic
growth engine is hampered by U.S. trade pro-
tectionism and its negative impacts such as a
weak external demand.
On the other hand, China’s economy is
stronger than before. In 2003, China’s GDP
accounted for 4.27 percent of the world total,
and 19.3 percent of that of East Asia and the
3DFLĶF,QWKHVHĶJXUHVURVHWRSHU
cent and 52.46 percent respectively. In 2003,
two years after acceding to the World Trade
Organization, China experienced rapid industri-
alization and urbanization, with its GDP growing

at double-digit rates.

The economic shock of SARS was lim-

ited, both for China and the Asia-Pacific. But

COVID-19 might bring about bigger concus-

sions considering that China is now at a critical

transition period, endeavoring to transform its

economic growth model, upgrade the eco-

nomic structure and change the growth drivers.

It is also facing downward pressures.

Moreover, the depth and breadth of China’s

SDUWLFLSDWLRQLQWKH$VLD3DFLĶFYDOXHFKDLQDQG

economic cooperation far exceed those dur-

ing the SARS period. After years of efforts, it is

more engaged in international division of labor

and become more important on the regional

and global production chain. Many regional free

trade agreements under negotiation in 2003

have now been concluded and implemented.

The economic interdependency between China

and regional blocs such as the Association of

Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has reached

the highest level in history.

Besides, the China-proposed Belt and

Road Initiative and China’s participation in the

negotiations for the Regional Comprehensive

Economic Partnership (RCEP) mean economies

are more entwined now and any impact on one

would impact others, amplifying the epidemic’s

fallouts.

Trade fallouts

The virus containment measures taken in

China, such as extension of the Lunar New Year

holiday and restriction of unnecessary traveling

and gathering, have already taken a toll on the

economy, in particular service industries such as

ó/RQJ7HUPó+RSHVó

Remain Strong

'HVSLWHóVKRUWWHUPóLPSDFWVóLIó&29,'óLVóKDOWHGóVRRQóHFRQRPLHVóZLOOó

bounce back By Jiang Yuechun & Zhang Yuhuan

A shop owner sells clothes through livestreaming at a wholesale market in Haicheng, Liaoning Province in northeast

China, on March 4. To minimize the risk of cross-infection, some shop owners are using livestreaming to promote

products

XINHUA