The EconomistFebruary 22nd 2020 BriefingThe Philippines 252
1capitalise on this with a second election
campaign when his six years are up in- Instead he has a “legacy campaign”
launched with a huge shindig in Manila on
January 17th. Beyond the chilling discovery
that the public has supported his brutality
in deed as well as word, what sort of legacy
will it be?
Economic performance, in which he
has little interest, has been adequate (see
chart 2). His enthusiasm for infrastructure
spending will leave his successor with
plenty of big juicy projects in the pipeline.
His move towards China in foreign policy
may prove contentious—or may look like
getting ahead of the curve.
Welterweights and oligarchs
Other aspects of his legacy-to-be look more
troubling: those which, like the tolerated
bloodshed, lower the bar for future presi-
dents. Beyond the matter of his own rheto-
ric, he has benefited from virulent social-
media trolling campaigns—Manila is
home to hundreds of troll farms whose
computer whizzes can be hired to splatter a
client’s opponents or boost his favourites.
He has bullied and intimidated the press.
The latest outrage, for his critics, came on
February 10th when the government filed a
petition in the supreme court to void the
franchise of media giant abs-cbn, which it
claims to have been engaged in “highly
abusive practices”. He has taken various ac-
tions to limit the risk of his eventually fac-
ing justice over extrajudicial killings.
And he has not delivered the deep elite-
uprooting change he promised. At the
launch of his legacy campaign, when a
communications minister declared him “a
father to our nation”, it might have been
more salient to note that he is father to Sara
Duterte-Carpio, his successor as mayor of
Davao and potentially as president. All in
all, he seems unlikely to leave the Philip-
pines with a political system more respon-
sive to the needs of the people, or better
placed to fulfil the promise of democracy.
This is because, though extreme, Mr Du-
terte is not a departure from the Philip-pines’ dysfunctional political system. He is
its grim product.
The Philippines is a country of strong
political characters and weak political par-
ties. Politicians tend to join the party of a
winning president upon his or her entry
into office to ensure continued funds for
their districts; one of the reasons to think
that Mr Duterte looks set for continued
success is that he gained further such sup-
port in last year’s mid-term elections. The
opposition now holds just four of the sen-
ate’s 24 seats. And only three of them actu-
ally sit. The fourth, Senator Leila de Lima,
has been locked up for three years for her
alleged links to drug lords.
Senate elections are hard slogs, with all
the candidates competing nationally. A
pre-existing fan base as a movie or sports
star makes things easier; Senator Manny
Pacquiao, once one of the world’s greatest
boxers, combines his legislative duties
with continuing to defend his wba(super)
welterweight title. If you can’t boast 39
knockouts in 71 matches, a well-known
surname makes an excellent alternative.
Devolution of power to local authorities
after the overthrow of Marcos further en-
trenched the power of the fairly small
number of families, often large landown-
ers, that control fiefs around the Philip-
pines. It is they who play Ms Coronel’s bas-
ketball game.
For all that Mr Duterte presents himself
as an outsider unfamiliar with Manila’s
swamp, it is from this world of established
power that he comes. He mastered local
politics as a scion of a well-nested family in
Mindanao, the poorest part of the country;
his father was, for a time, a provincial go-
vernor there. Originally a prosecutor, Mr
Duterte was appointed to his first political
job in 1986, when he was 40. He ran for
mayor of the island’s largest city, Davao,
two years later and dominated its politics
for more than two decades, avoiding pesky
term limits by switching jobs with his
daughter. For a while he became a member
of congress, just for a change.
The city provided a base in which to es-tablish his reputation. He introduced a
public smoking ban and a curfew after
10pm for loiterers and youngsters. His first
campaign against drugs took place there:
tales of its brutal tactics helped secure his
presidential victory.
Along with a propensity for violence, he
also brought a mayoral enthusiasm for in-
frastructure to the presidency. Under Mr
Aquino the average infrastructure spend
was 3% of gdp. Mr Duterte wants to get that
up to 7%. (In nearby Indonesia, where the
economy is much larger and an infrastruc-
ture push is also under way, the equivalent
number sits just under 6% of gdp.) This
translates into $158bn-$178bn allocated for
roads, bridges, airports and other projects
through a scheme known, with character-
istic subtlety, as “Build, Build, Build”.
That enthusiasm has been matched
with friendliness towards the world’s
builders supreme. Mr Duterte has secured
Chinese promises of $9bn in infrastructure
investment (though only $900m-worth
has been signed over in formal agree-
ments). China says it sees common aims
between its Belt and Road Initiative and Mr
Duterte’s zeal for construction. Whereas
Mr Aquino challenged China’s claims in
the South China Sea—or the West Philip-
pine Sea, as Filipinos know it—Mr Duterte
has joked about making the Philippines a
“province” of China. It is one of the few ar-
eas where he is at odds with the public.
In his campaign Mr Duterte said that he
would hire “the economic minds of the
country” to ensure growth. In practice this
has meant leaving things largely in the
hands of Carlos Dominguez, the finance
secretary, and his team. The economy ex-
panded 5.9% in 2019 and looks set to do bet-
ter this year; the country remains one of
the zappier growth prospects in South-East
Asia. Debt levels are manageable and re-
mittances from Filipinos working abroad
as maids, sailors and nurses, equivalent to
about a tenth of the economy, prop up
household spending.
In 2018 the first batch in a series of tax
reforms lifted the income-tax thresholdStill high
Philippines, net satisfaction* with presidents, %Source: Social Weather Stations *% “satisfied” minus % “dissatisfied”. Ignores “don’t know ” and “refused to answer”19060300-30-60
1986 90 95 2000 05 10 15 20C. Aquino Ramos Estrada Arroyo B. Aquino DuterteJogging on
Philippines, GDP, % increase on a year earlierSource: IMF *Estimate †Forecast2 8 6 4 2 02000 05 10 15 20†
*Rodrigo Duterte
becomes president