26 BriefingThe Philippines The EconomistFebruary 22nd 2020
2 and raised the top rate from 30% to 35%, as
well as increasing consumption taxes on a
range of goods, including petrol and sugar.
The inflationary pain which followed was
eased by getting rid of the country’s limit
on the volume of rice imports. Over the rest
of his term Mr Duterte’s advisers intend to
ease the corporate tax rate from 30% (the
highest in the region) down to 20%. The
hope is that these reforms will make the
country more enticing for investors.Let them eat rice
Growth was higher in the early 2010s. But
then its proceeds went largely to the well
off; in 2015 26% of the population was liv-
ing on less than $3.20 per day. According to
a recent report from the World Bank, that
share should drop to below 20% this year.
Lower rice prices since the tariff reform
and the consistent support provided by a
12-year-old conditional-cash-transfer sys-
tem have been a particular help. “[Mr Du-
terte’s] heart is with the poor,” reckons one
Manila business executive.
Many of the country’s poorest people
live on Mindanao, where unrest and terror-
ism have contributed to their misery. Here,
on his home turf, Mr Duterte has been ac-
tive. In 2017 government forces fought a
five-month-long battle against terrorists
with links to the so-called Islamic State
who were holed up in the city of Marawi.
The terrorists were eventually beaten, and
the two and a half years of martial law
which accompanied the fighting have now
come to an end, though thousands of peo-
ple remain displaced. Elsewhere on Minda-
nao Mr Duterte pushed through a peace
deal that brought to an end decades of
fighting in what is now the Bangsomoro
Autonomous Region.
The president’s plans for decentralisa-
tion on a national scale have not fared as
well. A large-scale federalist revision to the
constitution, never one of Mr Duterte’s
more popular proposals, has been aban-
doned. But a task force he established to
work on smaller constitutional adjust-
ments has produced several interesting
ideas. One proposed amendment would
devolve some more power and resources
from Manila, in line with a supreme-court
ruling last April which found that local
governments should get to keep more of
the revenues they collect. A constitutional
change easing controls on foreign owner-
ship might also be a boon to prosperity.
Tightening the rules on campaign fi-
nancing and on swapping political parties
is also under debate, as is an amendment to
discourage dynasticism, perhaps by ban-
ning close relations from succeeding each
other. These initiatives will struggle to pass
given that congress is stuffed with dynas-
ties. High-ranking politicians bluster
when asked about them. But there is appe-
tite for the reforms away from Congress.The task force behind the ideas says hun-
dreds of mayors and governors across 60
provinces have signed up in support of
them. That matters: a national plebiscite
might be part of the process which intro-
duces the amendments.
The president’s popularity, along with
his willingness to challenge convention,
might allow him to side with the people on
reforms more risk-averse politicians
would avoid—such as those which lessen
the clout of political families. His time in
office, though, does little to suggest he will
afford himself the opportunity.
In 2018 his daughter, Ms Duterte-Car-
pio, founded a loose coalition called Hug-
pong ng Pagbabago(Faction for Change).
The president’s standing helped propel al-
most all its candidates in the mid-terms to
victory. One of its successful senatorial
candidates was Imee Marcos, the daughter
of the dictator. Mr Duterte has boasted that
his father stood by hers in Marcos’s “dar-
kest hours”, and relations between the two
families remain warm. Imee’s brother
Bongbong ran for vice-president in 2016.
Since Mr Marcos lost to Ms Robredo he has
waged a constant battle to overturn her vic-
tory in the courts.
The intensity of his efforts may stem
from persistent anxiety over the pres-
ident’s health. In the past Mr Duterte has
used fentanyl to help him cope with back
pain. In 2018 he did little to curb specula-
tion that he might have cancer after receiv-
ing a colonoscopy. In October he spoke
about suffering from a chronic autoim-
mune disease, and was forced to cut short a
trip to Japan owing to “unbearable pain”
caused by a motorcycle fall.
If he survives to retirement, Mr Duterte
will be keen on a less litigious, and indeed
carceral, one than those endured by his
three most recent predecessors. Mr Aquino
has faced various charges related to gov-ernment spending on infrastructure pro-
jects and, separately, to a botched counter-
terrorism operation in 2015. His predeces-
sor, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, spent nearly
five years in detention until the supreme
court acquitted her of misusing state lot-
tery funds in 2016. While in office Ms Ar-
royo pardoned her predecessor, Joseph Es-
trada, who was sentenced to life in prison
for plunder in 2007.Success and succession
In March the Philippines withdrew from
the International Criminal Court, which
had been conducting a preliminary inquiry
into whether Mr Duterte and other officials
had committed crimes against humanity
during the drug campaign. The chief jus-
tice of the supreme court—“the kingpin of
the judiciary”, in Dutertese—was ousted in
2018 after she pushed back against the drug
war. Subsequent vacancies on the bench
have been filled with relatively youthful
judges who will serve long after Mr Du-
terte’s departure from office loses him his
immunity from prosecution.
All the while Mr Duterte keeps up his at-
tacks on the media. Parallels with America,
the archipelago’s former colonial ruler,
readily suggest themselves. Filipinos are
more likely to express a favourable opinion
of President Donald Trump than almost
anyone else in the world, according to the
Pew Research Centre, an American think-
tank. Mr Trump returns the favour. In Janu-
ary America cancelled the visa of Senator
Ronald Dela Rosa, an ally of Mr Duterte’s in
the drug war. Mr Duterte declared his in-
tention to respond by cancelling a long-
standing agreement which allows Ameri-
can troops to participate in joint exercises
in the Philippines. America’s embassy in
Manila labelled this “a serious step with
significant implications”. Mr Trump,
though, said he didn’t mind.
The president’s peaceful retirement
may end up depending on the identity of
his successor. Speculation is rife that Ms
Duterte-Carpio will try to fill her father’s
shoes. They have not always agreed on
policies. But she is not unlike him. She rose
to national attention when, as mayor of Da-
vao herself, she punched a sheriff in a dis-
pute over the demolition of slum housing.
She has not declared a run for the presi-
dency; but today would be too soon to do
so. In principle, were he to throw his
weight behind the anti-dynasticism mea-
sure, her father could stop her rise. “If the
reforms get through then you can argue
that Duterte was the chemotherapy the
country needed,” argues Julio Teehankee of
De La Salle University in Manila, a critic of
the oligarchic elite. That might be a fitting
legacy for the man elected president on the
basis of promises to be savage and deadly.
For the scion of a powerful political family,
Like father like daughter? though, it looks unlikely. 7