36 The Americas The EconomistFebruary 22nd 2020
2 theless the axe will hurt. Adolfo Garcé, a po-
litical analyst, predicts that hitting the tar-
get will require slashing public-sector jobs
by a third.
Foreign investment and talent could
provide a boost. “We are one of the best
countries in the world to live in,” said Mr
Lacalle Pou. To tempt foreigners, he plans
to make it easier for them to seek residency
in Uruguay, where they already enjoy low
taxes and exemptions on some types of for-
eign income, such as pensions. The target
audience is Argentina. Immigration law-
yers report that many Argentines seek to
live across the River Plate as a result of their
country’s economic crisis.
Next month’s inauguration offers an
opportunity to reintroduce Uruguay to the
world. In some ways the ceremony will re-
flect the country’s perennial position, pre-
determined by geography, as a sober inter-
mediary between its bigger, more powerful
and less temperate neighbours. Jair Bolso-
naro, Brazil’s populist president, and Al-
berto Fernández, his centre-left counter-
part in Argentina, were expected to meet at
the ceremony after a public spat. Now it
seems that Mr Fernández has cancelled. Mr
Lacalle Pou promises to work with both
men to reinvigorate the Mercosur trade
bloc, comprised of their three countries
plus Paraguay. But the guest-list also marks
a noticeable shift: the authoritarian leftist
leaders of Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua
are personae non gratae.
The next president faces high expecta-
tions and only a short period, maybe a year
or 18 months, in which to meet them, pre-
dicts Mr Garcé. Voters were split in the last
election. And the opposition, especially
the trade-union movement, remains
strong. Reforms must strike a balance be-
tween reassurance and disruption. Mr La-
calle Pou seeks a middle way, in line with
the people who elected him. “I voted for
change, and I’m optimistic our president
will be a vehicle for change,” says Ernesto
Cis, a driver and tour guide. “We Uru-
guayans don’t do revolutions. We like
change with continuidad.” 7The Front lines
Uruguay, crimes per 100,000 peopleSource: National statistics12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1815102005Homicides
1,0008006004002000
1815102005Armed robberiesCorrection:In “Justin Trudeau’s drug problem”
(February 15th), we misidentified the New
Democratic Party as the National Democratic Party.“S
top the invasion! No pipelines on
stolen native land!” So chanted doz-
ens of protesters on a chilly afternoon this
week in Vancouver. With placards in hand,
they blocked traffic on a busy thorough-
fare, doing their part to “shut down Cana-
da”. That has become the rallying cry
against the Coastal GasLink pipeline, a
C$6.6bn ($5bn) project which will tran-
sport natural gas 670km (420 miles) across
British Columbia to the Pacific coast,
where a liquefied natural gas (lng) plant is
under construction.
The pipeline is an “invasion”, detractors
say, because about a quarter of its route
passes through land traditionally belong-
ing to the Wet’suwet’en, a First Nations
people. Since early February, when police
broke up a blockade (with an injunction to
do so) local disputes have escalated to na-
tional unrest. Allies of the Wet’suwet’en
have organised copycat demonstrations far
away from the pipeline itself.
None of this has scuppered the plans,
but it has disrupted the economy and em-
barrassed the Liberal government. Canadi-
an National Railway (cn) shut down lines
in the east of the country and temporarily
laid off about 450 workers; Via Rail, a pas-
senger service, is doing the same to nearly
1,000. Food, heating fuel, farm exports and
commodities are gridlocked. Cars and
ships have been unable to get through
bridges, ports and the border with the Un-
ited States. Public sentiment is against the
protesters, reckons Janice, a regular rail
rider who missed work because of cancel-
lations. A court granted CN an injunctionagainst demonstrators on its rail line in Al-
berta; fed-up counter-protesters have tried
to dismantle blockades themselves.
Justin Trudeau, the prime minister, has
asked for patience. He missed the first
week or so of chaos because he was abroad,
lobbying for a seat on the un Security
Council. Mounting pressure forced him to
cancel his next stop, to Barbados, and hold
crisis talks in Ottawa. This is a thorny issue
for Mr Trudeau, because he must juggle a
trio of promises. He has promised to pro-
mote reconciliation with indigenous peo-
ple—he calls their relationship with the
government Canada’s most important. But
he has yet to unveil a new set of rules for
that relationship that was expected before
last year’s election. He has promised to pro-
tect the environment, but the pipeline will
carry a fossil fuel, which many greens
would rather leave in the ground. And he
has promised to boost economic growth,
which exporting gas would obviously help.
Mr Trudeau’s timing is unlucky. He has
inherited this problem from successive
governments which have failed to resolve
tensions between national and indigenous
laws. Worse, past attempts have contribut-
ed to present confusion. An act in 1876 arti-
ficially divided the First Nations into elect-
ed “band” councils. Hereditary leaders still
dispute elected representatives’ authority.
In the pipeline debate, even as some
hereditary chiefs have refused to consent,
all 20 elected bands along the route of the
Coastal GasLink signed C$338m in benefit
agreements withtcEnergy, the company
sponsoring the pipeline, plus C$620m in
contract work for indigenous businesses.
Protesters (many of them non-indigenous)
may jeopardise such investment.
Mr Trudeau has ruled out force, despite
pressure from Conservatives, who accuse
him of weakness, to send in police. Hansen
Lee, a retired engineer in Vancouver, wor-
ries that such passivity has turned Canada
into a “laughing stock”. Lawmakers are
wary of repeating past showdowns with in-
digenous leaders that turned bloody. In a
dispute over a plan to build a golf course
near Oka in 1990 a policeman was killed; in
the Ipperwash Provincial Park in 1995 a
protester was shot.
A deal to resolve the conflict would
probably mean the Canadian government
trading land, power and money for an end
to protests, claims and court action. Future
projects, such as a planned expansion of
the Trans Mountain oil pipeline, are sure to
reignite debate even if the particulars of
the Coastal GasLink are resolved. Mr Tru-
deau now has a choice: he can exercise
power or cede more of it. So far he seems
unwilling to do either. 7VANCOUVER
Justin Trudeau has no good optionsPipeline protestsShut down Canada