The Economist USA - 22.02.2020

(coco) #1

84 The EconomistFebruary 22nd 2020


Economic data

Gross domestic product Consumer prices Unemployment Current-account Budget Interest rates Currency units
% change on year ago % change on year ago rate balance balance 10-yr gov't bonds change on per $ % change
latest quarter* 2019† latest 2019† % % of GDP, 2019† % of GDP, 2019† latest,% year ago, bp Feb 19th on year ago
United States 2.3 Q4 2.1 2.3 2.5 Jan 1.8 3.6 Jan -2.5 -4.6 1.6 -109 -
China 6.0 Q4 6.1 6.1 5.4 Jan 2.9 3.6 Q4§ 1.5 -4.3 2.6 §§ -28.0 6.99 -3.1
Japan -0.4 Q4 -6.3 0.8 0.8 Dec 0.4 2.2 Dec 3.2 -3.0 nil -8.0 111 -0.3
Britain 1.1 Q4 0.1 1.3 1.8 Jan 1.7 3.8 Nov†† -4.3 -1.8 0.7 -50.0 0.77 nil
Canada 1.7 Q3 1.3 1.7 2.4 Jan 2.0 5.5 Jan -2.1 -1.0 1.4 -53.0 1.32 0.8
Euro area 0.9 Q4 0.2 1.2 1.4 Jan 1.2 7.4 Dec 3.2 -0.9 -0.4 -53.0 0.93 -5.4
Austria 1.5 Q3 -0.7 1.6 1.7 Dec 1.4 4.2 Dec 1.6 0.2 -0.3 -73.0 0.93 -5.4
Belgium 1.2 Q4 1.6 1.3 1.4 Jan 1.2 5.3 Dec -0.6 -1.3 -0.1 -75.0 0.93 -5.4
France 0.8 Q4 -0.3 1.2 1.5 Jan 1.3 8.4 Dec -0.9 -3.2 -0.2 -70.0 0.93 -5.4
Germany 0.5 Q4 0.1 0.6 1.7 Jan 1.4 3.2 Dec 7.3 1.5 -0.4 -53.0 0.93 -5.4
Greece 2.7 Q3 2.3 2.2 0.9 Jan 0.5 16.6 Oct -2.1 0.6 1.0 -280 0.93 -5.4
Italy nil Q4 -1.3 0.2 0.6 Jan 0.6 9.8 Dec 2.9 -2.2 1.0 -185 0.93 -5.4
Netherlands 1.5 Q4 1.5 1.8 1.8 Jan 2.7 4.1 Dec 9.2 0.6 -0.3 -54.0 0.93 -5.4
Spain 1.8 Q4 2.1 2.1 1.1 Jan 0.8 13.7 Dec 1.0 -2.3 0.3 -102 0.93 -5.4
Czech Republic 3.4 Q3 0.8 2.6 3.6 Jan 2.9 2.0 Dec‡ 0.7 0.2 1.6 -31.0 23.1 -2.0
Denmark 2.3 Q3 1.2 2.1 0.7 Jan 0.8 3.7 Dec 8.3 1.5 -0.4 -61.0 6.92 -4.9
Norway 1.8 Q4 6.5 1.0 1.8 Jan 2.2 4.0 Nov‡‡ 5.4 6.5 1.4 -26.0 9.28 -7.4
Poland 3.1 Q4 0.8 4.2 4.4 Jan 2.3 5.5 Jan§ 0.5 -1.2 2.1 -51.0 3.96 -3.5
Russia 1.7 Q3 na 1.2 2.4 Jan 4.5 4.6 Dec§ 4.8 1.8 6.1 -240 63.6 3.7
Sweden 1.7 Q3 1.1 1.3 1.3 Jan 1.8 7.5 Jan§ 4.3 0.4 nil -38.0 9.79 -4.6
Switzerland 1.1 Q3 1.6 0.8 0.2 Jan 0.4 2.3 Jan 10.2 0.5 -0.7 -44.0 0.98 2.0
Turkey 0.9 Q3 na 0.1 12.2 Jan 15.2 13.3 Nov§ 0.2 -3.0 11.3 -384 6.08 -12.8
Australia 1.7 Q3 1.8 1.7 1.8 Q4 1.6 5.3 Jan 0.3 0.1 1.0 -111 1.50 -6.7
Hong Kong -2.9 Q4 -1.6 -0.6 2.9 Dec 3.0 3.4 Jan‡‡ 4.8 -0.1 1.4 -38.0 7.77 1.0
India 4.5 Q3 4.5 4.9 7.6 Jan 3.7 7.2 Jan -1.2 -3.9 6.4 -120 71.6 -0.3
Indonesia 5.0 Q4 na 5.1 2.7 Jan 3.0 5.3 Q3§ -2.3 -2.0 6.5 -145 13,690 3.0
Malaysia 3.6 Q4 na 4.5 1.0 Dec 0.7 3.3 Dec§ 3.4 -3.5 2.9 -97.0 4.16 -1.9
Pakistan 3.3 2019** na 3.3 14.6 Jan 9.4 5.8 2018 -2.6 -8.9 11.2 ††† -184 154 -9.9
Philippines 6.4 Q4 9.1 5.9 2.9 Jan 2.5 4.5 Q4§ -0.3 -2.8 4.4 -204 50.5 3.3
Singapore 1.0 Q4 0.6 0.7 0.8 Dec 0.5 2.3 Q4 17.4 -0.5 1.7 -48.0 1.39 -2.9
South Korea 2.2 Q4 4.7 2.0 1.5 Jan 0.4 4.1 Jan§ 3.6 -0.3 1.6 -44.0 1,189 -5.1
Taiwan 3.3 Q4 7.8 2.7 1.9 Jan 0.6 3.7 Dec 11.8 -0.9 0.6 -26.0 30.1 2.4
Thailand 1.6 Q4 1.0 2.4 1.1 Jan 0.7 1.0 Dec§ 7.5 -2.8 1.0 -125 31.2 0.2
Argentina -1.7 Q3 3.8 -2.7 52.9 Jan‡ 53.5 9.7 Q3§ -1.6 -3.8 na -464 61.7 -36.9
Brazil 1.2 Q3 2.5 1.2 4.2 Jan 3.7 11.0 Dec§‡‡ -2.3 -5.7 4.2 -278 4.37 -15.1
Chile 3.3 Q3 3.0 1.3 3.5 Jan 2.3 7.0 Dec§‡‡ -3.0 -1.8 3.5 -57.0 799 -17.9
Colombia 3.4 Q4 1.9 3.1 3.6 Jan 3.5 9.5 Dec§ -4.5 -2.5 5.6 -103 3,408 -8.5
Mexico -0.3 Q4 nil -0.1 3.2 Jan 3.6 3.1 Dec nil -1.6 6.5 -185 18.6 3.1
Peru 3.0 Q3 2.9 2.2 1.9 Jan 2.1 5.4 Dec§ -1.9 -1.6 3.8 -170 3.38 -1.8
Egypt 5.7 Q3 na 5.6 7.1 Jan 9.2 8.0 Q4§ -1.8 -8.0 na nil 15.6 12.4
Israel 3.9 Q4 4.8 3.3 0.3 Jan 0.8 3.4 Dec 2.5 -3.8 0.8 -125 3.43 5.5
Saudi Arabia 2.4 2018 na 0.4 0.4 Jan -1.2 5.5 Q3 4.8 -6.0 na nil 3.75 nil
South Africa 0.1 Q3 -0.6 0.4 4.4 Jan 4.2 29.1 Q4§ -3.8 -5.9 8.9 2.0 15.0 -5.7
Source: Haver Analytics. *% change on previous quarter, annual rate. †The Economist Intelligence Unit estimate/forecast. §Not seasonally adjusted. ‡New series. **Year ending June. ††Latest 3 months. ‡‡3-month moving
average. §§5-year yield. †††Dollar-denominated bonds.

Commodities
The Economist commodity-price index % change on
2015=100 Feb 11th Feb 18th* month year
Dollar Index
All Items 110.0 111.4 -4.7 0.6
Food 97.9 98.7 -3.2 6.6
Industrials
All 121.3 123.4 -5.9 -3.4
Non-food agriculturals 101.2 101.0 -3.2 -8.6
Metals 127.3 130.0 -6.5 -2.2
Sterling Index
All items 129.7 130.5 -4.6 0.6
Euro Index
All items 111.8 114.2 -2.3 5.4
Gold
$ per oz 1,564.5 1,602.4 2.9 19.8
Brent
$ per barrel 54.2 57.1 -11.7 -13.6
Sources: Bloomberg; CME Group; Cotlook; Datastream from Refinitiv;
Fastmarkets; FT; ICCO; ICO; ISO; Live Rice Index; LME; NZ Wool
Services; Thompson Lloyd & Ewart; Urner Barry; WSJ. *Provisional.

Markets
% change on: % change on:
Index one Dec 31st index one Dec 31st
In local currency Feb 19th week 2019 Feb 19th week 2019
United States S&P 500 3,386.2 0.2 4.8
United States NAScomp 9,817.2 0.9 9.4
China Shanghai Comp 2,975.4 1.7 -2.4
China Shenzhen Comp 1,846.4 3.4 7.2
Japan Nikkei 225 23,400.7 -1.9 -1.1
Japan Topix 1,671.9 -2.7 -2.9
Britain FTSE 100 7,457.0 -1.0 -1.1
Canada S&P TSX 17,925.4 0.5 5.1
Euro area EURO STOXX 50 3,865.2 0.3 3.2
France CAC 40 6,111.2 0.1 2.2
Germany DAX* 13,789.0 0.3 4.1
Italy FTSE/MIB 25,477.6 2.5 8.4
Netherlands AEX 629.2 nil 4.1
Spain IBEX 35 10,083.6 1.4 5.6
Poland WIG 57,957.8 -0.3 0.2
Russia RTS, $ terms 1,542.1 -1.0 -0.4
Switzerland SMI 11,263.0 1.6 6.1
Tu r ke y BIST 119,196.1 -0.7 4.2
Australia All Ord. 7,237.4 0.7 6.4
Hong Kong Hang Seng 27,655.8 -0.6 -1.9
India BSE 41,323.0 -0.6 0.2
Indonesia IDX 5,928.8 0.3 -5.9
Malaysia KLSE 1,534.2 -0.6 -3.4

Pakistan KSE 40,574.5 0.1 -0.4
Singapore STI 3,213.7 -0.3 -0.3
South Korea KOSPI 2,210.3 -1.3 0.6
Taiwan TWI 11,758.8 -0.1 -2.0
Thailand SET 1,505.5 -2.2 -4.7
Argentina MERV 38,390.8 -3.9 -7.9
Brazil BVSP 116,517.6 -0.1 0.8
Mexico IPC 44,901.5 -1.0 3.1
Egypt EGX 30 13,695.0 -1.1 -1.9
Israel TA-125 1,676.7 -0.4 3.7
Saudi Arabia Tadawul 7,967.6 0.7 -5.0
South Africa JSE AS 57,941.0 0.3 1.5
World, dev'd MSCI 2,431.2 -0.2 3.1
Emerging markets MSCI 1,103.7 -0.5 -1.0

US corporate bonds, spread over Treasuries
Dec 31st
Basis points latest 2019
Investment grade 142 141
High-yield 463 449
Sources: Datastream from Refinitiv; Standard & Poor's Global Fixed
Income Research. *Total return index.

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