17: International Investment Decisions
sell their home currencies and buy dollars. Buying pressure from investors causes the dollar to appreciate
against foreign currencies. In general, the pressures exerted on currencies by investors are much
larger than those exerted by exporters and importers, because investors account for a larger fraction
of currency trading volume. For example, the total value of goods and services traded internationally
each year is about $16 trillion, which is equivalent to about four days’ worth of global currency trading.
Figure 17.3 shows daily averages for foreign exchange market turnover, by counterparty. It suggests
that the market share of turnover attributable to non-financial institutions is less than 10%.
In January 2011, the central bank of Peru announced
that it would raise a benchmark interest rate by
0.25%. Other things being equal, higher interest
rates tend to put upward pressure on a country’s
exchange rates because of capital inflows from
foreign investors. On the same day that Peru
announced the rate hike, Peru’s currency, the sol,
reached a 33-month high.
example
FIGURE 17.3 GLOBAL FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET TURNOVER BY COUNTERPARTY^1
Net—net basis, daily averages in April
2001–2013
USD bn
2013 Breakdown of other financial
institutions
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
01
Reporting dealers
Non-financial customers
Other financial institutions
39% 53%
9%
Reporting dealers
Non-financial customers
Other financial institutions
24%
11%
11%
6%
1%
Non-reporting banks
Institutional investors
Hedge funds and PTFs^2
Official
sector
Other
04 07 10 13
1 Adjusted for local and cross-border inter-dealer double-counting; i.e. ‘net bank’ basis.
2 Proprietary trading firms
Source: Bank for International Settlements 2013. All rights reserved. April 2013: Preliminary Global Results, Monetary and Economic Department, Bank for International Settlements, September 2013, Graph 2, page 6.
Sometimes traders in the foreign exchange market buy and sell currency to offset other risks to which they
are exposed during the normal course of business. Hedging refers to the practice of trading an asset for the sole
purpose of reducing or eliminating the risk associated with some other asset. For example, suppose that an
Australian company expects to receive a £1,000,000 payment from a customer in the United Kingdom. The
payment is due in 90 days. This receivable is risky from the Australian company’s perspective, because the
exchange rate between dollars and pounds may fluctuate over the next 90 days. To hedge the risk of its pound-
denominated receivable, the Australian company might enter a forward contract to sell pounds for dollars in
90 days. By doing so, the company essentially locks in a dollar value for the £1,000,000 payment.
Hedgers influence currency values when they take positions to offset the risks of their existing exposures
to certain currencies. In contrast, speculators take positions to make a profit. Speculators sell a currency if
hedging
Trading an asset for the
sole purpose of reducing or
eliminating the risk associated
with some other asset