The Wall Street Journal - 24.02.2020

A2| Monday, February 24, 2020 ** THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.**

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

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U.S. WATCH

NEW ORLEANS

Another Person

Killed by Parade Float

A person was struck and

killed by a float during Mardi

Gras celebrations in New Or-

leans, the second death along

the parade route within a week,

prompting changes for the rest

of the city’s Carnival season.

New Orleans emergency offi-

cials said a man was killed Satur-

day night when struck by a float

in the Krewe of Endymion parade.

This death comes after a

woman was struck and killed by

a parade float at the Krewe of

Nyx parade on Wednesday night.

Emergency officials continued to

warn observers to remain behind

barricades along parade routes.

“To be confronted with such

tragedy a second time at the

height of our Carnival celebra-

tions seems an unimaginable

burden to bear,” New Orleans

Mayor LaToya Cantrell said.

Emergency officials said tan-

dem floats, which include multi-

ple connected floats pulled by a

tractor, wouldn’t be allowed for

the rest of the celebratory sea-

son.

—Jennifer Calfas

CALIFORNIA

NTSB to Investigate

Deadly Bus Rollover

Federal investigators are send-

ing a team to the scene of a

charter-bus crash that killed three

people and injured 18 others on a

rain-slicked highway near San Di-

ego, officials said Sunday.

The bus was on Interstate 15

in Pala Mesa on Saturday when

it swerved, rolled down an em-

bankment and landed on its roof,

North County Fire Protection Dis-

trict spokesman John Choi said.

Several passengers were

thrown from the bus, and one of

the dead was trapped under the

vehicle, Mr. Choi said. Another

person who died was trapped in-

side, he said.

The National Transportation

Safety Board said Sunday it had

dispatched a team to investigate

the crash in Pala Mesa, about 45

miles north of San Diego.

“Therewasaprettygood

rainstorm around the time of

the crash,” Mr. Choi said on Sun-

day. It was too early to deter-

mine if the weather was a fac-

tor, officials said.

The bus driver, who suffered

minor injuries, remained at the

scene.

—Associated Press

MINNESOTA

Murder-Suicide

Leaves Three Dead

Three people were found

dead in a suburban Twin Cities

home in what authorities are

calling a murder-suicide.

Apple Valley police said offi-

cers responded to the home just

after noon Saturday after a

caller reported several people

had been shot. Two men and

one woman were found dead

from apparent gunshot wounds.

The state Bureau of Criminal

Apprehension had finished its

preliminary investigation by Sun-

day afternoon, Apple Valley po-

lice said in a statement.

“Based on their findings, the

deaths appear to be acts of

family violence concluded with

the perpetrator ending their own

life,” the statement said.

—Associated Press

DESTRUCTION: The view Sunday of a four-story building in East Orange, N.J., that partially collapsed the day before.

SETH WENIG/ASSOCIATED PRESS

U.S. NEWS

ECONOMIC

CALENDAR

rently done by professional

workers, many with college

degrees.

Think of how a financial

adviser analyzes a client’s

economic circumstances, in-

come prospects and personal

goals to provide guidance on

retirement planning. With AI,

an algorithm could use the

same information to make

recommendations. Another

example would be the mar-

ket-research analyst who ana-

lyzes consumer spending

trends and patterns to recom-

mend an advertising strategy

for a new movie or automo-

bile. With AI, a computer

could do the same thing.

Similarly, medical facilities

have started using computers

to read X-rays and determine

whether images are consis-

tent with a disease such as

pneumonia, a task previously

performed by radiologists.

The technology could free

up medical personnel to

spend more time with pa-

tients or examine less clear-

cut cases—and it could re-

duce the overall need for

radiologists.

“AI will substitute for a set

of tasks, but there’s no reason

it would have to be a total

displacement,” said Stanford

University economist Michael

Webb. “The only thing you

can say for sure is that the

job will change.”

In contrast, automation has

replaced people securing a

bolt on an assembly line, add-

ing figures on a ledger, or,

more recently, flipping a

burger.

To study the possible ef-

fects of AI, Mr. Webb em-

ployed it to review more than

16,000 patents related to AI to

determine capabilities, such

as “diagnose disease” or “rec-

ognize aircraft.” Meanwhile,

he examined a Labor Depart-

ment database of hundreds of

occupations to catalog spe-

cific tasks required for jobs.

He then matched how fre-

quently the potential AI abili-

ties overlapped with what is

required at existing jobs to

develop a measure of expo-

sure. Mr. Webb’s analysis pro-

vided the basis for the Brook-

ings study.

The study found holders of

bachelor’s degrees are five

times as likely to be exposed

to some effect of artificial in-

telligence as those with just

high-school diplomas. Those

with the highest exposure are

in the 70th to 90th percentile

of wage earners.

It is possible artificial in-

telligence will allow some

THE OUTLOOK|By Eric Morath

AIThreatTargetsHigher-PayingJobs

The next

wave of labor-

saving tech-

nology will

wear a white

collar.

Artificial intelligence—pro-

gramming machines to think

more like humans—is ex-

pected to alter how Ameri-

cans work on a scale similar

to the impact of robotics and

desktop computers. But em-

ployees affected by it are

much more likely to be in

management or professional

roles than laborers turning

screws or filing papers.

The most vulnerable occu-

pations include marketing

specialists, financial advisers

and computer programmers—

jobs that tend to pay high

wages and skew toward male,

white and Asian workers, a

recent study from the Brook-

ings Institution found.

Other jobs most vulnerable

to being affected by AI in-

cluded certain types of engi-

neers, optometrists, graphic

designers, software develop-

ers and sales managers.

New technology in the

workplace has generally been

better for higher-skilled

workers than for the lower-

skilled, said Mark Muro, one

of the study’s authors. “Artifi-

cial intelligence could play

out just the opposite.”

W

hile machines have

long been able to

perform repetitive

physical tasks or complex

mathematical calculations, AI

enables computers to analyze

data, predict outcomes, learn

from experience by recogniz-

ing patterns and make deci-

sions. Such tasks are cur-

workers to dispense with

time-consuming tasks such as

data analysis, and focus on

potentially more profitable

activities, such as meeting cli-

ents. Those workers could be-

come more productive and

command higher wages.

Other workers could find

their jobs simplified and more

easily filled by someone with

less education, which could

drive down wages in the pro-

cess. And in other cases, jobs

could be replaced entirely by

technology.

T

o be sure, experts in

the past have incor-

rectly predicted that

other major shifts in the

economy—including the

mechanization of agriculture,

automation of factories and

outsourcing of labor to for-

eign countries—would cause

mass unemployment. While

these trends did eliminate

many U.S. jobs, many others

were created over time. And

the unemployment rate was

near a 50-year low in Janu-

ary, at 3.6%.

Although the U.S. has six

million fewer factory jobs

than it did in the late 1970s, it

has 62 million more total

jobs, primarily due to the

growth of the service sector.

Top executives are likely

less exposed to potential dis-

placement by AI than lower

level professionals. The

Brookings study found that

exposure to artificial intelli-

gence falls for the top 10% of

earners.

“CEOs are largely exempt

from this,“ Mr. Muro said.

“They’re not the ones doing

the number crunching and

making the PowerPoints.”

Artificialintelligenceislikelytohavealargerimpactoncertainoccupationsthatrequirecollege

degreesandpayhigherwages,andthosejobstendtoskewtowardmale,whiteandAsianworkers.

Artificial intelligence exposure by...

...occupation ...wage percentile ...race and gender

Source: Brookings analysis of data from Webb (2019)

Note: Numbers are standard deviations from zero. Zero equals average level of exposure for all occupations

Marketresearchanalysts

Computerprogrammers

Financialadvisers

Registerednurses

Mechanics

Retailsalesperson

Cooks,restaurant

Asian

White

Hispanic

Black

Men

Women

3.03 0.

1.96 0.

1.33 0.

0.44 0.

0.

-1.03 0.

-1.37 ←LOWERPAY I HIGHERPAY → -0.

0.

–0.

–0.

–0.

–0.

–0.

0

0.

0.

0.

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25th 50th 75th

Data out this week could

provide an early look at how

the coronavirus epidemic is af-

fecting the global economy and

how U.S. consumers are faring

early in the year.

Tuesday: The Conference

Board will issue its reading of

U.S. consumer confidence in

February. Watch to see if the

coronavirus epidemic and the

presidential election campaign

are affecting Americans’ mood

about the economy.

Thursday: The European

Commission will provide a

fresh assessment of how busi-

nesses in the eurozone have re-

sponded to the coronavirus epi-

demic, which threatens to

disrupt their supply chains and

sales to China and other Asian

markets. Economists expect the

monthly economic sentiment

indicator to record a weakening

of confidence during February.

The U.S. Commerce Depart-

ment will issue its second esti-

mate of fourth-quarter gross

domestic product. Watch for

revisions reflecting newly avail-

able December data, a month

when the U.S. and China

reached a trade truce and Con-

gress passed a government

spending measure.

Friday: China’s factory activ-

ity is likely to show a notable

impact from the coronavirus

epidemic. China’s official pur-

chasing managers index ,re-

leased on Saturday morning in

China, is forecast to drop to 45

in February from January’s 50,

according to economists sur-

veyed by The Wall Street Jour-

nal. Readings below 50 indicate

a contraction. The forecast

reading would be the lowest

since the global financial crisis

in 2008.

Earlier, the Commerce De-

partment will publish January

household income, consumer

spending and inflation data.

tists and engineers to study

abroad over the prior decade,

at times without their host

schools’ knowledge of their

military affiliation.

In the Boston University

case, federal prosecutors ac-

cused Yanqing Ye of acting as

an agent of a foreign govern-

ment. On her application for a

J-1 visa used for scholarly ex-

changes, she said she was a

student at China’s National

University of Defense Technol-

ogy, but omitted that she was

a lieutenant in the PLA, ac-

cording to the indictment. It

said she carried out assign-

ments from military col-

leagues while at Boston Uni-

versity from 2017 to 2019.

Ms. Ye didn’t respond to

email requests for comment,

nor did her university, which

is one of the Chinese military’s

leading research institutes.

The Federal Bureau of In-

vestigation said she is likely

back in China.

Mr. Stanley, 78, is a re-

nowned expert in statistical

physics. His lab has attracted

more than 200 research asso-

ciates and visiting scientists,

according to his résumé.

The Boston University

spokesman said Mr. Stanley

has been on leave since March

2019—a move unrelated to the

visiting-scholar issue—and

will retire at the end of 2020.

He said the university applies

the same criteria in reviewing

visiting scholars, assessing

their funding and academic

credentials.

In the fiscal year that ended

June 30, Boston University

hosted 1,294 international

scholars from 96 countries,

with China as the top source,

school data shows. Over the

past year, the spokesman said,

administrators have educated

faculty about U.S. concerns of

foreign influence.

The spokesman said the

school counts on the State De-

partment to vet visa requests

“against organizations or indi-

viduals that are of concern to

the U.S. government.”

A State Department spokes-

man declined to discuss spe-

cific cases but said the Immi-

gration and Nationality Act

gives limited authority to deny

visas. Currently, the spokes-

man said, consular officers

may deny a visa if they believe

the applicant might intend to

export a technology on a U.S.

control list. Many technolo-

gies, and basic research like

that done in Mr. Stanley’s lab,

aren’t on export-control lists.

When a researcher from a

Chinese military academy ap-

plied to study with celebrated

Boston University physicist

Eugene Stanley, he said her af-

filiation didn’t raise red flags.

“I’m not interested at all in

politics. I’m a scientist,” said

Mr. Stanley, whose wide-rang-

ing research has included us-

ing artificial intelligence to de-

code financial markets and

applying statistical physics to

prevent diseases.

The recent indictment of

the researcher, who is accused

of lying on her U.S. visa appli-

cation to conceal she is a lieu-

tenant in the Chinese military,

shows how U.S. universities’

openness to international col-

laboration in cutting-edge re-

search leaves them vulnerable

to potential exploitation.

Mr. Stanley said that he re-

ceives droves of research re-

quests and that he vets candi-

dates’ scientific credentials. A

Boston University spokesman

said the school doesn’t engage

in classified research and re-

lies on the State Department

to screen foreign applicants

for national-security risks.

A range of U.S. agencies,

from the Defense Department

to the National Institutes of

Health, have sounded alarms

over Beijing’s alleged attempts

to tap U.S. university expertise

to boost China’s military and

technological competitiveness.

Beijing has denied any sys-

tematic effort to steal U.S. sci-

entific research, and Chinese

state media have called U.S.

allegations of intellectual-

property theft a political tool.

Some university leaders

have dismissed U.S. officials’

national-security concerns as

exaggerated and discriminatory

and said there should be no re-

strictions on unclassified re-

search. They have also said col-

laboration is essential to

advancing scientific discovery.

Despite commitment to open

exchanges, universities should

consider drawing the line at

working with China’s People’s

Liberation Army, or PLA, sug-

gests a 2018 report by the Aus-

tralian Strategic Policy Insti-

tute, an Australian government-

backed, nonpartisan think tank.

“Helping a rival military de-

velop its expertise and tech-

nology isn’t in the national in-

terest,” says the report by

researcher Alex Joske. He

found China’s military spon-

sored more than 2,500 scien-

BYKATEO’KEEFFE

ANDARUNAVISWANATHA

Chinese Military Taps

U.S. University Posts

President Trump is to at-

tend an event at India’s Sardar

Patel Stadium on Monday. An

article on the World News

pages on Saturday/Sunday mis-

spelled the name of the sta-

dium as Sadar Patel Stadium.

CORRECTIONS

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