4 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Friday6 March 2020

in battleground states. Voluminous

polling commissioned by the data-

obsessed candidate suggested there was

a path to victory.

In fact, Mr Bloomberg had been cir-

cling the contest far longer. In the 2018

midterm elections, he contributed more

than $100m to moderate Democratic

candidates, helping the party to reclaim

the House of Representatives. Those

contributions prompted speculation

that he wasbuilding up a bank of

favours he might later draw on.

Then, in March 2019, Mr Bloomberg

issued an anguished statement ruling

out a run. His explanation was that his

candidacy would further crowd the

party’s centreground and so risk elevat-

ing its populist leftwing.

By the time he finally declared, his

competitors had spent months n thei

early voting states of Iowa and New

Hampshire following a traditional play-

book: earn a strong showing topropel

their campaigns toward the next races.

nstead, Mr Bloomberg bet all hisI

chips on the 14 states and one territory

(American Samoa) that went to the

polls on Tuesday. Drawing on his $58bn

fortune he was able to guarantee six-

figure salaries and housing allowances

to staff and open 200 campaign offices.

Andrew Yang, the former Democratic

candidate, described the Bloomberg

campaign’s Times Square headquarters

as looking “like a spaceship”.

Inlittle more than two months, the

campaign splashed more than $300m

on slick television, radio and internet

advertisements. “They put the money

to good use,” one campaign strategist

judged. “They did a good job of intro-

ducing this moderate, pragmatic tech-

nocrat to the rest of the country.”

In spite of the debate debacle, Mr

Bloomberg still managed to finish third

in many contests on Tuesday, jumping

ahead of Ms Warren.

To Bloomberg advisers, the late break

for Mr Biden validated their view of the

race all along: Democratic voters, they

argued, had an existential fear of Mr

Trump’s re-election and so were seeking

the best option to defeat him. “They

aren’t looking for ideological perfec-

tion,” Stu Loeser, a Bloomberg spokes-

man, explained.

When Mr Biden stumbled, those peo-

ple gravitated to Mr Bloomberg. When

Mr Biden re-emergedover the weekend,

they returned.

If, as Mr Bloomberg has insisted for

months, his overriding goal is to defeat

Mr Trump, that outcome should be

acceptable. In his concession, he offered

generous praise for Mr Biden, promising

to work for his election.

Still, the defeat hurt, even for a bil-

lionaire who is not known to dwell on

setbacks. One member of the Bloomb-

erg inner circle repeatedly mentioned

the need to “heal”.

Mr Bloomberg’s opponents, particu-

larly Ms Warren, managed to reduce

what is regarded by many as one of New

York City’s better mayorships to “stop

and frisk”.Similarly, what was arguably

Mr Bloomberg’s greatest achievement —

building from scratch a financial infor-

mation service that has become the cen-

tral nervous system of Wall Street —

came to be tarnished by claims that he

treated women employees poorly.

“This is one of the extraordinary peo-

ple of our lifetimes!” one longtime aide

lamented. “Somehow that got lost.”

J O S H UA C H A F F I N— N E W YO R K

In the end, $500m, state of the art data

analytics and a 2,400-strong campaign

army was only enough to conquer

American Samoa.

That was the cold electoral accounting

confronting Michael Bloomberg and his

top advisers when they gathered at his

East 78th Street office in Manhattan

early on Wednesday morning to take

stock of his presidential bid.

heT ampaign was supposed to havec

taken flight on “Super Tuesday” but

instead crashed to earth in desultory

fashion with a lone victory in the US pro-

tectorate in the South Pacific that is

home to 55,000 souls. The decision to

pull out of the race was not a compli-

cated one, a person involved in the dis-

cussions said.

So ended a campaign the likes of

which had not previously been seen in

American politics, one that was pro-

pelled by technical wizardry, an entre-

preneur’s audacity and a seem-

inglyendless supply of money ut wasb

ultimately undone by circumstance and

human frailty.

To pollster John Zogby, who once

worked for Mr Bloomberg, the defeat

was a parable about the limits of money

in politics. “If you want to be president,

put your cheque book away and be pre-

pared to humble yourself in bad

weather and with a lot of pancakes,”he

advised.

But that sentiment may obscure a

larger truth: that Mr Bloomberg was a

contender. He entered the race only in

late November and, after a barrage of

advertising began shooting up the polls

as Joe Biden, the former vice-president

and champion of the moderate wing of

the Democratic party Mr Bloomberg

also represented, was stumbling.

By the end of January, several polls

showed Mr Bloomberg near the front of

the Democratic field and gaining

ground.Then came Las Vegas. On Feb-

ruary 19, Mr Bloomberg took the stage

in Nevada for his first Democratic

debate and was promptlyeviscerated yb

Massachusetts senator Elizabeth War-

ren. She attacked him relentlessly for

his wealth, crass comments about

women and the “stop-and-frisk” polic-

ing tactics that targeted young African-

American and Hispanic men while he

was mayor of New York.

“It’s certainly possible the strategy

could have worked,” one Bloomberg ally

mused. “Up until that first debate, he

had extraordinary momentum.”

For a 78-year-old Jewish billionaire

and former Republican, winning the

Democratic nomination for the presi-

dency in a highly partisan and populist

era was never going to be an easy propo-

sition.He jumped into therace in late

November fter concluding that Mra

Biden as at risk of losing to Mr Trumpw

I N T E R N AT I O N A L

L AU R E N F E D O R— WA S H I N GTO N

Elizabeth Warren, the senator from

Massachusetts and one-time frontrun-

ner in the Democratic presidential field,

is ending her campaign, setting up a

two-man race between Joe Biden

and Bernie Sanders for the party’s

nomination.

Ms Warren, 70, told her staff on a call

yesterday morning that she was leaving

the race. “We didn’t reach our goal, but

what we have done together — what you

have done — has made a lasting differ-

ence,” she said.

The decision came after adisappoint-

ing Super Tuesday or Ms Warren, whof

finished in third place in her home state

of Massachusetts, behind Mr Biden, the

former vice-president, and Mr Sanders,

the Vermont senator.

Ms Warren, who set up the Consumer

Financial Protection Bureau, ran on a

platform of “big, structural change”. She

touted her myriad policy proposals on

the campaign trail, often saying: “I have

a plan for that.” One of her signature

plans was for a 2 per centtax on all

wealth bove $50m.a

The Massachusetts senator was for a

time seen as the candidate to beat in a

crowded field of Democrats vying to

take on President Donald Trump in

November. But her campaign faltered

when she came under pressure to

explain how she would pay for “Medi-

care for All”, a plan to virtually elimi-

nate private health insurance that Mr

Sanders has also called for.

Her departuresets up a fight etweenb

Mr Biden, 77, and Mr Sanders, 78, for the

Democratic party’s presidential nomi-

nation. Tulsi Gabbard, the congress-

woman from Hawaii, is still running for

president but has collected just two del-

egates. While votes are still being

counted from California’s primary on

Tuesday, Mr Biden currently leads in

the national delegate count, at 596,

while Mr Sanders has 531.

Ms Warren failed to break through in

the early voting states ofIowa, where

she finished third, andNew Hampshire,

where she came in fourth despite being

a native of neighbouring Massachusetts.

She also came in fourth in theNevada

caucuses nd fifth in thea South Carolina

primary, followed by aSuper Tuesday

during which she failed to reach viabil-

ity in many key states, including dele-

gate-rich California and Texas.

The senator’s departure all but elimi-

nates the possibility that the US will

elect a female president in 2020.Her

announcement comes one day after

Michael Bloomberg, former mayor of

New York City,ended his campaign nda

threw his support behind Mr Biden. Pete

Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchardropped

their presidential campaigns before

Super Tuesday, also backing Mr Biden.

Ms Warren’s endorsement is highly

sought after by both Mr Biden, a moder-

ate Democrat, and Mr Sanders, a self-

described democratic socialist.

Democrats

Bloomberg failure

exposes political

limits of deep pockets

‘If you want to be

president, put your

cheque book away’

John Zogby, pollster

White House contest

Warren quits US presidential race

after disappointing Super Tuesday

Senator’s exit sets up

Sanders-Biden showdown

to take on Trump

C O U RT N E Y W E AV E R— WA S H I N GTO N

Ahead of Tuesday’s North Carolina

Democratic presidential primary, Melli-

cent Blythe was torn between two candi-

dates: Elizabeth Warren, the Massachu-

setts senator, and Amy Klobuchar, her

Minnesota colleague.

Yet when she cast her ballot, Ms

Blythe, a social worker in the city of Dur-

ham,found herself voting for former

vice-president Joe Biden: I feel hypo-“

critical because I did what I get frus-

trated with other people doing. I didn’t

vote for Warren, because I was petrified

she was going to lose out to [Bernie]

Sanders and then Sanders would lose

out to[President Donald] Trump.”

The 2020 Democratic primary began

with a record number of women vying

for the chance to run for the US presi-

dency.Of the 29 main Democratic can-

didatessix were women, including four

senators: Ms Warren, Ms Klobuchar,

Kamala Harris and Kirsten Gillibrand —

along with Tulsi Gabbard, the Hawaii

congresswoman, and Marianne Wil-

liamson, a motivational speaker.

Yesterday, the last woman with a

chance of winning the nomination

bowed out when Ms Warren quit, an

especially painful blow for the senator

who at one point was a frontrunner.

On Super Tuesday, the Massachusetts

senator won just a handful of delegates,

finishing third in her home state and

fourth in Oklahoma, the state where she

was born and grew up.

Ms Blythe saidshe had found Ms

Klobuchar and Ms Warrenmore

impressive than the moderate Mr Biden

or the progressive Mr Sanders. Butthere

was an implicit bias in society that she

herself seemed to have fallen victim to:

“We just don’t seem to like accom-

plished, capable women. As my sister-

in-law said, we have to vote for the

mediocre man to get the despicable man

out of office.”

Amanda Litman, co-founder of Run

for Something, an organisation that

encourages young people to run for

office, and a veteran of Hillary Clinton’s

2016 presidential campaign, said she

was “really sad” Ms Warren had not

done better.

“People want their vote to matter.

They want to feel like they are on the

winning team, and momentum and nar-

rative makes a difference,” Ms Litman

said. “A very small part of me is almost

relieved. Because if say Elizabeth War-

ren had gone all the way and lost, I’m not

sure they, [whoever] they are, would

have let a woman run again.”

She may not be wrong, according to

Lara Brown, political scientist at George

Washington University. The last time

Democrats chose a female vice-presi-

dential nominee was when Geraldine

Ferraro ran as Walter Mondale’s run-

ning mate in 1984. hey lost 49 of 50T

states to Ronald Reagan.

For Republicans, the lastsuch candi-

date was Sarah Palin, whose place on the

ticket in 2008 was believed to havehurt

John McCain’s campaign. “I think for the

Democratic party and for voters more

broadly there is a moment of self-reflec-

tion that has to be done after this race

about some of the gender biasesaround

electability,” said Kelly Dittmar, politi-

cal scientist at Rutgers University’s

Center for American Women and Poli-

tics. “There is a disconnect between

women's performance and the percep-

tion that women are somehow unelecta-

ble at the presidential level.”

Neither Ms Warren nor any of the

other female senators in thecontest had

lost an election before the 2020 prima-

ries, a contrast to Mr Sanders, who has

lost six House, Senate and gubernatorial

races.

Mary Anne Marsh, a Boston-based

Democratic strategist, said she believed

Ms Warren had made some strategic

mistakes, specifically her decision not

to go after Mr Sanders, her main chal-

lenger for the progressive vote. How-

ever, she believed there were other fac-

tors, with many voters thinking if Hil-

lary Clinton failed to beat Mr Trump,

what woman could. “I think it’s a flawed

analysis. But I think it’s a prevalent

thought that a lot of women had.”

Some women said they still saw some

room for optimism.Ms Blythe said both

she and her 18-year-old daughter,

another Warren fan who had voted for

Mr Biden, were hopeful that he would

pick a woman as his running mate if he

won the Democratic nomination.

Ms Marsh said many women voters

had come to the conclusion that Mr

Biden was best positioned to beat Mr

Trump in November. “Normally Demo-

crats are very emotional about who they

support. The old line: Democrats fall in

love, Republicans fall in line,” she said.

In 2020, that had been upended. “In this

race, it’s all about who can win.”

Primaries.Gender gap

Women struggle to convince voters

All the female candidates with

a chance of winning the party

nomination have dropped out

T

he Taliban has a saying:

“America has the watches;

we have the time.” Donald

Trump’s alarm is set for

November 3, which is when

he hopes to be re-elected. In between, he

wants to redeem his vow to pull US

troops from Afghanistan without trig-

gering a Taliban takeover.

The Taliban, on the other hand, has

most of the leverage as well as all the

time. Like a property dealer squeezing

ever more humiliating terms, it knows

the US president will not walk away.

He is committed to cutting and running.

In Mr Trump’s defence, nobody has a

better plan. In 2009,Joe Biden, then

vice-president and now Mr Trump’s

likely opponent, failed to convince

Barack Obama to strike a similar deal to

the one Mr Trump signed last week.

It is very simple. Those who have not

been keeping up should watch the latest

season ofHomeland, the Showtime

drama. The US withdraws most of its

troops from Afghanistan and releases

Taliban prisoners. In exchange, the Tali-

ban renounces terrorism and agrees to

talks with a weak and reluctant Afghan

government. It is a matter of time before

they regain control of Kabul.

I would gladly disclose what happens

next butHomelandairs on Sunday. The

pitfalls of Mr Trump’s deal are matching

the plot. Within hours of having signed

the deal last week, the Taliban resumed

its attacks on Afghan positions.

Mr Trump nevertheless this week got

on the phoneto Abdul Ghani Baradar,

co-founder of the Taliban. “The rela-

tionship is very good that I have with the

mullah,” Mr Trump said on Tuesday,

long after the truce was broken. On

Wednesday, the US launched an air

strike on Taliban positions.

We have seen this drama many times

before. In September, Mr Trump invited

Taliban leaders to his retreat at Camp

David to conclude the same deal they

signed last week.

The prospect of America’s president

hosting leaders of a terrorist group on

the anniversary of the September 11

attacks triggered the resignation of John

Bolton, Mr Trump’s hawkish national

security adviser.

His exit set the timetable back six

months. With justeight months to go

before the US election, Mr Trump can-

not afford any more delay.

The Taliban knows this and will test

Mr Trump to his limits. The question is

whether he can maintain the trappings

of adirty peace ntil polling day. Theu

Taliban already controls more than half

the country.

“Trump needs to sell this withdrawal

as a peace deal,” said Husain Haqqani, a

former Pakistan ambassador to the US,

now at the Hudson Institute.

“He knows from the real estate world

that a building with weak foundations

must not collapse before the sale is

complete.”

The larger question is whether any-

one in America really cares. Beyond

Washington, the answer is largely no.

Americans know US missiles can strike

terrorists at will without troops on the

ground, as often happens in the Middle

East and north Africa.

Mr Trump paid no price for abandon-

ingthe US’s Syrian Kurdish allies last

year. It is unlikely he will be punished

for not caring about the fate of Afghani-

stan’s government. Neither Mr Biden

nor Bernie Sanders are likely to criticise

Mr Trump forcutting America’s over-

seas presence.

But the world will take note of US

indifference to diplomacy. Mr Obama’s

decision to “surge” 100,000 US troops

into Afghanistan looks worse and worse

over time. His move doubled the length

of the war without achieving Afghan sta-

bility. More than a decade later, the

same terrorist group that hosted al-

Qaeda is poised to regain control. Its

pledges are worthless.

Overnearlytwo decades, the US has

been banging its head repeatedly

against the same Afghan brick wall. Yet,

it has never tried serious regional diplo-

macy. Mr Obama did appoint an AfPak

envoy, the late Richard Holbrooke, who

wanted to create a compact between

Afghanistan’s nearby powers, including

Russia, Iran, Pakistan, India and China,

to underwrite its stability and pledge

non-interference.

Holbrooke’s vision was a long shot. It

was also the kind of feat only the US

could attempt. Alas, Mr Obama could

barely bring himself to talk to Hol-

brooke, let alone listen to his dreams.

Mr Trump has no Holbrooke and no

patience for diplomacy. Others will pay

the price forUS fatigue.

[email protected]

Trump shuns opportunity for regional diplomacy in dirty peace agreement with Taliban

The pitfalls of Donald

Trump’s deal are

matching the plot of the

TV series ‘Homeland’

GLOBAL INSIGHT

Edward

Luce

Making waves: Michael Bloomberg

attends a rally in Houston, Texas

‘We just don’t seem

to like accomplished,

capable women’

North Carolina female voter

Bowing out: Elizabeth Warren, waving,

and Amy Klobuchar, with their male

opponents before a primary debate in

Charleston, South Carolina —Win McNamee/Getty

MARCH 6 2020 Section:World Time: 5/3/2020- 18:18 User:john.conlon Page Name:WORLD3 USA, Part,Page,Edition:USA, 4, 1