Copyright©2020The NewYork TimesMONDAY,FEBRUARY24, 2020Incollaborationwith INTERNATIONAL WEEKLY
LENSByMAXFISHER
Shortlyafter theUniversityof
Washington announced that the
school’s fourthsuspected caseof
thenew coronavirushad turned
out negative,two professors, one
of public policy and
theother of public
health,heldadinner
forstudentsand facultymembers.
Thecoronavirus wasall anybody
couldtalkabout.
Butapublichealthstudent,exas-
perated, rattled offaset of statistics.
By then,the virushad killed about
1,100 andinfectedaroundadozen
in theUnitedStates.Influenza kills
about 400,000peopleevery year,
including34,200Americans last flu
season.
There remains deepuncertainty
aboutthe newcoronavirus’s mortal-
ityrate,withthe high-end estimate
that it is up to 20 times that oftheflu,
butsomeestimatesgo as lowas0.16
percentfor thoseaffectedoutside of
China’soverwhelmed HubeiProv-
ince.
Aboutonparwith theflu.
Wasn’tthere somethingstrange,
thestudentasked,about theex-
tremedisparity inpublic reactions?
AnnBostrom,the dinner’s co-host
andanexpertonthe psychologyof
howhumansevaluate risk,saidthe
student wasright about theviruses,
but notabout people.
With thenew coronavirus, she
said,the mind hasits ownwaysof
measuringdanger. Andthe virus
hits nearly everycogniti ve trigger
we have.
That explains theglobalwaveof
anxiety.
There is alesson, expertssay,in
thenear-terror that thevirus induc-
es,evenasseriousthreatslikethe
flureceive little morethanashrug.
It illustratestheunconscious biases
in howhumanbeings thinkabout
risk,aswellasthe impulses that
oftenguideour responses—some-
times with seriousconsequences.
Experts usedtobelieve that peo-
plegaugedrisklikeactuaries,pars-
ingout cost-benefit analysesevery
timeamergingcar came tooclose or
localcrime ratesspiked. Butawave
of psychologicalexperiments in the
1980supended thisthinking.
Researchersfoundthat people
PACIFICA,CALIFORNIA IntheSanFranciscoarea, citiesarefortifyingcoastal defensesandresidents facelosingtheirhomes.TikTok’s HouseCalls
Thelastplace EvaZavala
expectedto find relieffromher
medicalbills wasonTikTok, aChi-
nese-owned socialmediaplatform
usedtoshare shortvideos.
Then she
stumbled on a
post by Shaunna
Burns, aNorth
Carolina resi-
dent,advising
viewerstocall
hospitalstoask
foranitemized
breakdown of
theirbills.Thatmight lead tothe
removalofoutrageousfees, like $37
foraBand-Aid.
Ms.Zavalafollowedthe advice,
andher $1,000medicalbillwasre-
ducedtozero,she told TheTimes.In
repliestothe video,thousands ofpeo-
ple complained about theAmerican
health care system,where insurance
is mostly providedbyemployers, and
thankedMs. Burnsfor thetip.
IreneFlippo,anadvocate for
patients,was notsurprised by the
response.Medicaldebtis aleading
causeofbankruptcy in theUnited
States,evenfor thosewith private
health insurance, andthe billing
systemcan be confusing andhardto
navigate.She said there wasaneed
for education about howtohandle
medicalcosts.
TikTok,which hasbeendown-
loaded 1.65 billion times,might not
be thefirst placepeople go to s eek
outsuchguidance. Butthathas not
stopped doctorsfromusing it.“Ithas thisincredibleviewership
potentialthat goes beyond just your
ownfollo wing,”Rose MarieLeslie, a
family physicianin Minnesota, told
TheTimes.
Dr.Leslie hasusedTikTokto
sharemedicaladvice.Her videos on
vaping-relatedlungdiseaseshave
earned more thanthreemillion
views, andshe hasurged viewers to
burn calories by practicing dances
that went viralonthe app.
Butmakinganimpactonthe plat-
formmeans adheringtoits casual,
often sillyform. Videosarecomedic
or lighthearted;originaldancesset
to songsare particularly popular.
Dr.DanielleJones, agynecologist
in Texas, hasalso realized that the
keytoTikToksuccess is in theap-
proach.
“MyTikTokpresenceislikeifyouhadafriendwho just happens tobe
anOB/GYN,” Dr.Jones toldThe
Times.“It’s agoodwaytogivein-
formation to people whoneed it and
meetthem wheretheyare.”
Oneofher sexeducationvideos,in
whichshe tells viewers whatto do if
theirbirthcontrol methodfails,has
beenviewedmore than11 million
times.
TikTok is also beingusedtohelp
fightthe disinformation that is
spreadonsocialmedia.
In theweeks sincethe corona-
virusoutbreakinWuhan,China,
falsehoodsallegingthatthe virus
wasdeveloped as abiologicalweap-
on oranattempt to boostvaccine
saleshaveproliferatedonline.
Thoughhealthmisinformation is
banned on TikTok andthe platform
hasbeenremoving videosthat ped-dleconspiracytheories, thespread
of suchcontentissopotentthatthe
WorldHealthOrganization has
enlistedcompanies likeFacebook,
Twitter andGoogletocombat what
it is callingan“infodemic.” Theplat-
formsare workingwiththe W.H.O.
to removefalse informationabout
thecoronavirus.
It is afight that Drs. Leslie and
Jonesknowalltoowell. When it
comesto battlingmisinformation, a
humanconnection cangoalong way.
“Withayoung audience, it’s really
importanttomakesurethatthe con-
tentgetting outisprofessionaland
accurate,” SarahMojarad,asocial
medialectureratthe University of
SouthernCalifornia ,toldThe Times.
“Peoplemay thinksome ofit is med-
icalhumor,but itimpacts care.”
AMANDAE. NEWMANForcomments,writeto
[email protected].
INTELLIGENCEThemeaningof moves
byPutin. PAGE 2
ARTS&DESIGNJustin Bieber, reluctant
superstar. PAGE 4
Fearing
AVirus,
Rational
Or Not
Rising Seas Threaten Cities
Co ntinuedonPage 3ArticlebySOMINISENGUPTA
PhotographsbyCHANGW.LEEWHATDOYOUDOwhen the
seacomesforyourhome, your
school,yourchurch? Youcould
trytoholdbackthe water.Or
youcouldraiseyourhouse.Or
youcould just leave.
Anestimated600million peo-
plelivedirectly on theworld’s
coastlines,amongthemost
hazardous placestobeinthe
eraofclimate change.Accord-
ingtoscientific projections,
theoceansstand to rise by 30
to 120centimeters by theend
of thecentury,withprojections
of moreferociousstormsand
higher tidesthatcould upend
thelives of entirecommunities.
Many peoplefacethe risks
rightnow.Two sprawlingmet-
ropolitan areasoffer aglimpse
of thefuture. Onerich, onepoor,they sitonoppositesides ofthe
Pacific Ocean: theSan Francis-
co BayArea(population seven
million) andmetropolitanMa-
nila (almost14milli on).
Theirhistory, theirwealth,
andthe politicaland perso nal
choicesthey make todaywill
shape howtheyfareasthe wa-
terinevitably comestotheir
doorsteps.
In both places,itturnsout,
howyou face therisingsea de-
pends mostlyonthe accident of
your birth: Whetheryou were
born rich orpoor, in awealthy
countryorastrugglingone,
whether youhaveinsurance or
not,whether your property is
worthmilli onsorislittlemore
thanatin roof.
And, in both places,climate
changehas magnifiedyears
of shortsighteddecisions.Ma-
nila allowedgroundwatertobepumped outsofastthatthe land
saggedand turned into abowl
just as thesea wasrising. The
BayAreaallowedpeopletobuild
rightatthe water’sedge, putting
homes,highways, even airports
at risk ofcatastrophic flooding.
Butpeopletendtoholdon, of-
ten ingeniously,asthe waterris-
es around them.Insomecases
that is becausetheirproperties
areworth alot,for now, at least,
or becausethey have so little that
they have nowhereelsetogo.
Now, Manila andtheBay
Area facetough choices.They
couldadapt to therisingtide,
whichcould mean moving peo-
pleout of harm’s way. Or,they
couldtry to forcethe waterto
adapttotheir needsbyraising
theirdefenses. Forleaders,
politicallytough decisionslie
ahead. What do they save on the
water’s edge,what dothey for-sake andhow do they reimagine
theircoastal cities in an ageof
climate disruptions?
TheBay Area andMetropol-
itan Manila arebothbig and
growing, with alot ofpeople
andthings to protecton the
coast. Howthey deal with their
circumstances todaymay offer
lessons,for better orworse, for
coastalcitie selsewhere.
“Are we goingtodecidebynot
deciding, andwaitfor thewater
to reachourdoorsteps?” asked
Aaron Peskin,amemberof the
SanFranciscoboardofsuper-
visors.
“The biggestchallengeisget-
tingsociety to understand it,
grapplewithit, addressit,plan
forit, discussthetrade-offs.”Seehowrisingsealevelsare
affectingthese bigmetropolitan
areasonpage3.NEWS
ANALYSISWORLDTRENDSBeyond Iran,adissident
groupwaits. PAGE 2