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INTERNATIONALWEEKLY
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TOMBRADYEditor
ALAN MATTINGLYManagingeditor
TheNew York Times InternationalWeekly
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reporting.
IranianRebel Group
HidesOut in Albania
By PATRICKKINGSLEY
MANEZ,Albania —Inthe Alba-
nian countryside,agroupofcelibate
Iraniandissidents have builtavast
andtightly guardedbarracks that
fewoutsiders have entered.
Thegroup,the MujahedeenKhalq,
or People’s Jihadists,are described
as either Iran’s replacement govern-
ment-in-waitingoraduplicitouster-
rorist cult.It’salliesinclude Rudolph
W.Giuliani, PresidentDonaldJ.
Trump’spersonallawyer, andJohn
R. Bolton,his former nationalsecu-
rity adviser. Both have received tens
ofthousandsofdollarsforspeaking
at thegroup’sconferences,where
they describethe People’s Jihadists
as Iran’s mostlegitimateopposition.
Onarecentvisit,most residents
were offlimits, butofficials didal-
lowprivate interviewswithseveral
members. TheseincludedSomayeh
Mohammadi, 39,whose family has
argued that sheisbeingheldagainst
herwill.“This is mychoice,”she
said.“If Iwanttoleave,Icanleave.”
Senior officialsstumbled when
askedabout thegroup’sleader, Mas-
soud Rajavi,who vanished in 2003.
Foundedin1965toopposethe
Shah of Iran,the grouplaterreject-
ed thetheocracy that replaced him.
Thegroup attractedpublicsupport
andemerged as aleadingsourceof
opposition,according to Professor
Ervand Abrahamian,ahistorian.
Hesaid itspopularity plummeted
afterbecomingmoreviolentinthe
early1980s.Bythe 1980s,the group’s
ideology hadbeguntocenteronMr.
Rajavi andhis wife, Maryam.Mem-
bers were told to divorcetheir spous-
es andrenounceromance.
At thetime, thegroup wasbased in
Iraq,undertheprotection ofSaddam
Hussein. After theAmerican-ledin-
vasion ofIraq,the group, also known
astheM.E.K., gave up itsweapons.It
wasplacedunder American protec-
tion.But in 2009,American troopscededresponsibility forthe M.E.K.
to theIraqi government. Ledbypoli-
ticianssympatheticto Iran,the Iraqi
authoritiesallowedIran-allied mili-
tiasto attack thegroup.
American andUnitedNations
diplomatsbegansearchingfora
safercountry to housethegroup.In
2013,itwas welcomed by Albania.
TheM.E.K.built acamp24kilome-
terswest ofTirana,the capital. The
groupclaimsithousesabout 2,500
members.But acrosstwodays, no
morethan 200werevisible. Theoth-
ersseemedtohavebeensequestered
away,ortohaveleftthe group.
In interviewswith10who have left,
each described beingbrainwashed
into alifeofcelibacy, andsaidcon-
tact with familywas restricted.
“Littlebylittle, youarebroken,”said
AbdulrahmanMohammadian, 60,
whojoinedthe groupin1988 andleft
in 2016.“Youforgetyourself andyou
change yourpersonality.You only
obey rules.”
Thegroupstronglydeniedthe ac-
cusations.
As for thelimitsontheir privatelives, severalwomensaid suchdis-
ciplinewas necessarywhen battling
as cruel an adversary as thegovern-
mentofIran. “You can’thaveaper-
sonallife,”saidShiva Zahedi,“when
you’restrugglingfor acause.”
Thegroup providedcontact with
threeformer Americanmilita ry
officers whohad helped guardan
M.E.K. camp.Eachspokeglowingly
about theM.E.K., andsaidits mem-
bers hadbeenfreetoleave.
Butother recordsand witnesses
gave amorecomplex account.
CaptainMatthew Woodside,afor-
mer navalreservist whooversaw
American policy at theIraqi camp in
2004 and2005,saidthatAmerican
troops didnot have regular access
to camp buildingsortomembers
whose relativessaid they were held
by force. It becamesohardfor some
members, particularly women,to
flee that twoofthemended up trying
to escapeinadeliverytruck,hesaid.
“I find that organization absolutely
repulsive,” CaptainWoodsideadd-
ed.“Iamastoundedthatthey’rein
Albania.”TARATODRAS-WHITEHILLFORTHENEWYORKTIMES
FewoutsidershavebeenallowedinsidethesecuredM.E.K.camp
24 kilometerswestofTirana, theAlbaniancapital.Mumbai
Plays Tr ick
On Drivers
WhoHonk
By JEFFREYGETTLEMAN
NEWDELHI —InIndia,when
driving, youbasically need aring
of eyeballsaroundyour head
to seewhat’scoming. Three-
wheeledrickshaws whirlout of
theroundaboutsstraightatyou,
packsofstray dogsdash into the
road,hugebuseslurchup from
behind.Andonevery sideis a
stewofbicycle rickshaws,little
taxis, fat Mercedes,Uberdriv-
ersriveted to theirscreens,cars
driftinginand outoflanes,and
MarioAndrettitypes hurtling
downthemaindragjustcenti-
meters from each other.
In thisworld,the carhornisa
survivaltool, andaweapon.Peo-
pleuse it constantly —toberate,
to warn,and especially to get
sluggish driversto move.
Butin Mumbai,honking has
createdsomuchnoise that the
police hatched aplan. At cer-
tainvitalintersections,theyin-
stalleddevices that detecthorn
noise.Whenpeoplehonkedat
redlights, whichtheydotoget
otherdriversready to go,the
lights stayed red. Thepoliceput
up signs—“HonkMoreWait
More”—but clearlynot everyone
understood what washappening.
Thepolic efilmedallthis,usingsweepy droneshotsand alittle
Bollywoodmagic. (Mumbaiis
thecenter ofIndia’sfilmindus-
try, afterall.) They postedavideo
on socialmedia. It went viral.
It shows peoplegetting outof
cars with confusedlookson their
faces,someyelling at others to
stop hittingthe horns,kidsonthe
sidewalk cracking up andcops
exchangingahappyhandslap.
“Thisiswhatwewantedtotell
them:Honking ormaking noise
doesn’t move thetraffic,” ex-
plainedPranaya Ashok,apolice
spokesman.“Thetraffic takesits
owntimetomove, OK?”
Theexercise,doneinNovem-
berand December,was just a
trialrun,and police bosses are
discussinghowtheycan imple-
mentitacrossthecity, home to
an estimated20million people.
Indiansinevery corner of the
countryare laughingabout it;of-
ficialsinother places nowwantto
rigtheir trafficlightswithhonk-
ingmeters, too.
Accordingtoanold saying in
India, to drivewellall youneed
arefoursimplethings:agood
car, good eyes,goodluckand a
good horn. Butnow,maybe you
just need three.
“Honking is averybad and
indisciplinedtrafficact,” Mr.
Ashoksaid.“It soursthe ears of
anormalperson.”DIVYAKANTSOLANKI/EPA,VIASHUTTERSTOCK
DrivinginMumbaicanbe
trying.Thepolicehopeto
makeit alittlequieter.Themoreyouuse
your horn, the
longer youwait.
INTELLIGENCE/ MAXIMTRUDOLYUBOVPredicting Putin’sIntentions
In Russia,informalhierarchies
tendtoprevail over formalrules
andprocedures,orsowehavelong
thought.Long-establisheddemoc-
raciesare different: They have
traditions andregulations in place
that setclear limits on nepotismand
clan-based politics.
It is forareason, then,thatmany
politicalscientistsdefineRussia’s
regime as electoralauthoritari-
anism. What Russianofficialscall
“election” is really astagedperfor-
mancemeant to confer legiti macy
on theleader, whois therealdecider,
notthe people. Long-establishedde-
mocraciesare different:Theyhave
free andfairelections andare not
ruled by “families.”Still,there are
indicationsthatPresidentVladimir
Putinwillhave to restrain hisper-
sonalist instincts if he is to achieve
apeaceful transfer ofwealth and
powerinRussiainthe 2020s.
Whilethe Russianregimeisslow-
ly turningintoamorerule-based
governance system,the American
politicalsystem,underPresident
Donald J. Trump’shighlypersonal-
ized leadership, seemstobegoingin
theoppositedirection.
Mr.Putin’s intention to avoid
prosecution after 2024,whenheis
required by lawtoleave thepres-
idency, andhis drivetopreserve
hispoliti callegacythatincludes
fortunes made by allies,are thelike-
liest motivesbehindthe Kremlin’s
recent institutionalshake-up—an
announcement in mid-Januaryby
Mr.Putin of an arrayofchanges to
Russia’s Constitution.Ifadopted,
theamendmentswould give more
powers to theofficeofthe prime
minister, theDuma(Russia’spar-
liament) andthe StateCouncil,a
bodycomprisingRussia’sregional
governorsand anumberofselect
top-ranking officials.
OnetheoryisthatMr. Putindoes
intend to leavethepresidency in
four yearsbut willmove on to the
State Councilorsomeother van-
tage pointfromwhich he wouldbe
able to ensure an orderly transfer
ofwealthand power. If that is his
intent,somepresidentialpowers
wouldbesharedwithother bodies.
Most oftheeconomicdecision-mak-
ingwouldlikely shifttothe cabinet
andregionalgovernments.The
president wouldcontinue tobe the
commanderinchief andthe for-eign-policy czar.
“Putin is moving awayfrom
personalism,” Konstantin Gaaze,
asociologistatthe Moscow School
for Socialand EconomicSciences,
told me.Russia’spoliticalsystem,
he said,“hastostopproducing cha-
risma, just likeitdid not produce
charismaunder themidterm and
late-termBrezhnev,” areferenceto
theSovietCommunist Party’sgen-
eralsecretary, Leonid Brezhnev,
wholedthe Soviet Union between
1964 and1982.
“Byconstrainingthe powers
of thepresident, empowering the
parliament andmakinghimself the
ultimatepowercenterbeyond the
Kremlin,Vladimir Putinhasinject-
ed institutionalcompetiti on thatwasnot present,” thepolitic alsci-
entist IvanKrastevobserved. Insti-
tutionalor interagencycompetiti on
mayindeedintensify as aresultof
Putin’s shake-up, butitisalso clear
that he willnotvoluntarily give up
hisroleastheultimatearbiter.
Yeteventhiscautious“deperson-
alization”ofthe politicalsystemis
significant. Today’sRussiansseem
to be less impressedbythe showof
strongmanleadershipathomeand
Russia’s military mightabroad.
Ademandtobeacknowledgedas
dignified citizens,not obedient sub-
jects, is palpable in protestmove-
mentsthatare readyto standupto
governmentand police pressure.
Thechanges that thegovernment
hasbeenquietly introducingtestify
to thefactthatthe challenge has
beenaccepted. FewRussianswould
disputethatfor an average citizen,
interaction with theRussianstate is
nowmuchmoreformalizedand effi-
cientthanevenfiveyears ago.
In today’sgovernmentservice
offices, citizens getaslip, pour a
coffee,waitafew minutes in aclean
waitingarea, andget theirrequests
processedquickly.Itisafarcry
from thetimewhenpeople had to
bribetheir wayintogetting apass-
port,orwhengetting some paper-
work done required goingthrough
aninteractionwitharude person
behindthick glassinastale office.
It is importanttounderstand,
though,thatnoneofthisismeant
to make Russia’sgovernance sys-
temless authoritarian. It is meant
to make it less corrupt, chaotic,
personalizedandthusproneto
humanerror.Replacingpeople
with algorithmsisaway to achieve
that.Mikhail Mishustin,aformer
technocrat whoheadedRussia’s tax
service andwas oneofthe officials
responsible f or bringing thestate
into thedigitalage, hasbecomeRus-sia’snew primeminister.
Valorization offamilyand clan
values over theinterestsofthe
individualor thepublichas been
afeature of Russianlife sincethe
collapse oftheSovietUnion.Now,
as Mr.Putin’s goalappears to be
achieving apeaceful transferof
powerand wealth,heseems tobe
reininginclaninterests.Whatdoes
notchangeisthe valueheplaceson
cohesionamongtheranks over any
individualpoliti calstance. He has
alwaysmade apoint of saying that a
traitor is worse than anopen enemy.
Againstthisbackground,itisall
themoreamazingthatAmerica’s
conservative establishment acqui-
escesto thefactthatnot just apoliti-
cian butafamily is runningits coun-
try. Thespeedwith whichPresident
Trumpmanaged to turn apolitic al
partyintoaclaniseye-opening.
Republicansare learning that to get
re-elected,theymustaccept that
unityofthe ranksismoreimportant
than anyindividualpolitic alstance.
They now need to defendPresident
Trumpatall costsand,indirectly,
adopt Mr.Putin’s stance that atrai-
torisworse than anenemy.
Of course,Russiaisasfar from
achievingafully rule-basedpolit-
icalsystemcomplete with separa-
tion ofpowers as theUnitedStatesis
from descendingintoapersonalist
autocracy.Whatweare seeingis
aconvergence of sorts: Russia’s
authoritarianism becomingless
personalizedwhilethe American
systemofdemocratic governance
acquires more familialandclan-
basedfeatures. TheRussianform
of civilgovernance underpinned
by family,eventribalvalues, isde-
velopingsomerule-basedfeatures,
whilethe American system,based
on checksand balances,slidesdeep-
er into aformofpersonalleadership
that tests theruleoflaw.MaximTrudolyubovistheeditorial
pageeditorofVedomosti,an
independentRussianbusinessdaily.
Send commentsto
[email protected].
Changesmayaimto
lessencorruption, but
notauthoritarianism.