WORLDTRENDSMONDAY,FEBRUARY24, (^2020) THE NEWYORKTIMESINTERNATIONAL WEEKLY 3
Arisingsea underscoresthemissteps ofthepastinthe BayArea, too.
ThePacific hasrisen 10 to 20 centimetersalong theNorthernCalifor-
niashoreover thelastcentury andso, too, theSanFranciscoBay.De-
pendingonthe growth of greenhouse gasemissions,the Pacific could
rise 70 to 100centimeters by 2100,which i swhy theCaliforniaCoastal
Commission has encouraged city governments to e itherfortify their
flooddefenses, restorewetlands,
or make people move.
That is as difficult in theBay
Area as it is in Manila.“People’s
properties andinvestments areat
risk,” said Jack Ainsworth,headof
thecommission. “Itbecomes very
politicaland very emotional.”
UnlikeManila, BayAreamunic-
ipalitie sare wealthy. Andmany
of them arealready paying alot to
fortifycoastalinfrastructure.
Votersin SanFrancisco have
approved a$425million bond
measuretostart fortifying asea
wall alongthebayfrontroad.
“Webasically builteverything
just aboutatthe high tide line,”
said LauraTam,apolicy direc-
tor at SPUR,aBay Area urban
planninggroup.“Nothingwas
builtthinkingoffuturechanges in
tides.”
In Pacifica, asuburbsouthof
thecity, coastalbluffsare eroding
so swiftlythat cityofficials have alreadydemolishedsome properties
before they couldfallintothe water.
John Raymond, abankruptcylawyer, bought hishouse ontheedgeof
thesea.Heloves it here.Hewants to stay foraslongas possible.But Mr.
Raymond,60, is also keenlyawareofthe risks. Theonlythingthatpro-
tects hisproperty from arisingsea isapubliclyfundedsea wall.
“Ifmyhousegets condemnedbecausethesea wall failsand theocean
comes tothefrontdoor, Ihavetoleave,and that’s that,” he said.“I’m
taking theriskmyhousegoestozero.”
useaset of mentalshortcuts for
measuringdanger. Andtheytend
to do it unconsciously,meaning that
instinct canplayamuch larger role
thanthey realize.
Theworld is fullofrisks,big and
small. Ideally, theseshortcutshelp
peoplefigureout whichones towor-
ry about andwhich to disregard.But
they canbeimperfect.
Thecoronavirusmay be acasein
point.
“Thishitsall thehot buttonsthat
lead toheightenedriskperception,”
said PaulSlovic, aUniversity of
Oregonpsychologistwho helpedpi-
oneer modernriskpsychology.
When youencounter apotential
risk,yourbrain doesaquick search
forpastexperiences.Ifitcanpull up
multiple alarming memories,your
brainconcludes thedangerishigh.
But it often failstoassesswhether
those memoriesare trulyrepresen-
tati ve.
Aclassic exampleisairplane
crashes.
If twohappeninquick succession,
flying suddenlyfeelsscarier —even
if your conscious mindknows that
thosecrashesare astatisticalaber-
ration.But if youtakeafew flights
andnothinggoeswrong,your brain
will mostlikely starttelling you
againthatflyingissafe.
When it comestothe coronavirus,
Dr.Slovicsaid, it’s as ifpeopleare
experiencing onereportafter an-
otherof planes crashing.
“We’rehearing about thefatal-
itie s,”hesaid. “We’re not hearing
about the98orsopercent of people
whoare recovering from it andmay
have hadmild cases.”
That tendencycan cutinbothdi-
rections,leadingnot tounduealarm
butunduecomplacency. Though flu
killstensofthousands ofAmericans
andmanymoreworldwideevery
year,most people’sexperiences
with it arerelativelymundane. Be-
ingtoldhow dangerousflu is does
little to change this, stu dies find.
“We’re conditionedbyour ex-
periences,”Dr. Slovicsaid. “But
experiencecan mislead ustobetoo
comfortable.”
Thevirus also taps into otherpsy-
chologicalsho rtcuts for assessing
risk.
We areconditi oned to focus heav-
ilyonnew threats,looking forany
causeforalarm.Thiscanlead us to
obsessover theworst-casescenari-
os,makingthe danger seem bigger
still.
Maybethe mostpowerfulshort-
cutofall is emotion.
Assessingthe dangerposedby
thecoronavirusisdifficult;even
scientistsare unsure.But ourbrains
actasif they have aneasier way:
They translategut reactionsinto
whatwebelieve arereasonedcon-
clusions, even if hard data tells us
otherwise.
“The worldinour headsis not a
precise replicaofreality,” Daniel
Kahneman,aNobelPrize-winning
economist, wrote in a2011book. He
said ourexpectationsare distorted
by theemotionalintensityofthe
messages we receive.
Reports on thecoronavirus fea-
ture upsetting imagery: city lock-
downsand overcrowded hospitals.
Anothertrigger is athreatthat is
not fully understood.The l essknown
it is, themore peoplemay fearit.
Threatsthatfeelout of control,
like anoutbreak,promptasimilar
response, leadingpeopletoseek
ways toreimposecontrol,like
hoarding supplies.
“Our feelings don’t do arithmetic
very well,” Dr.Slovicsaid.
That canbetrue whenjudging
low-probability, high-riskthreats
like nuclearwar,ordying from the
coronavirusorthe flu.
Ourminds tendtoeith er “round
down”the probability to “basically
zero”and we underreact, Dr.Slovic
said,orwefocus on theworst-case
outcome,which “gives usastrong
feeling, so we overreact.”
FearingaNewVirus
Rising SeasThreatenManilaand SanFrancisco
JasonGut ierrez contributed
reporting.
ContinuedfromPage1
PACIFI CA
AlanGrinbergpays for a
wall of boulders to slowthe
erosionbelowhishome.
PHOTOGRAPHSBYCHANGW.LEE/THE NEWYORKTIMES
MALABON,PHILIPPINES DesireeAlay-aywantstoleaveherflood-prone homeandtakeherparents withher,buttheyrefuseto go.
DesireeAlay-ay,30, grew up in
alow-lying, flood-proneneighbor-
hood on thenorthernfringe of Ma-
nila.Itisnot what she wantsfor her
baby.She wantstomove, andtake
herparents with her.
Climate changehas exacerbat-
ed alongtimeproblemin Manila.
Becauseof aproliferationoffish
pondsandthe rapidextractionof
groundwater, thegroundhas been
subsiding. As aresult,since the
early1990s,sea levels have risenby
as much as 5to7centimetersayear,
doublethe globalaverage.
Storms repeatedly sweepaway
bamboo andtin houseson thewater.
Peopleflee, onlyto come backbe-
causethey have nowhere better to
go. Roads have beenraisedmultiple
times.Pariahan, avillage just north
of thecityline, is nowpermanently
underwater.
“Climate changedoesn’t create
itsown impacts.Itmagnifi es wrong
policies,”saidRenatoRedentor
Constantinoofthe Manila-basedIn-
stitut efor Cli mate andSustainable
Cities.“Alarge part of Metropolitan
Manila is facingmorewater-related
impacts because of decades ofmyo-
pic, cross-eyedlanduse planning.”
Ms.Alay-ay’s parents,migrants
from thecountryside,built asmall
houseinMalabon,theonlyneigh-
borhoodthey couldafford.The
waterpooledupinthe streetsevery
rainyseason. Leakysewers meant
humanwaste sometimes floatedby.
Thecityraisedthe road. Ms.Alay-
ay’s parents raisedtheir house to
stay abovethe road. They poured
cementandsandonthe floor, four
times in 30years. Everyone lived
likethis. Oneneighbor raised the
floorsohighthatthe originalkitch-
en sink is nowankle-high.
It wasonlyafter Ms.Alay-ayhada
baby that she decidedtoleave Mala-
bon.“I don’twanthim to experience
what I’ve experienced,”she said.
She wanted her parents to come,
too,so they couldcarefor thebaby
whileshe andher husband went
to work.But they hadotherplans.
Leavethebabywithus, her mother,
ZucemaRebaldo,offered. Butwe’re
not moving.“Iwilldie in thisplace,”
Mrs. Rebaldosaid.
Millions ofthecity’spoorestlive
in low-lyingareas that arealready
lashed by tropicalstorms.Climate
change is projectedto make those
storms moreintense andmorefre-
quent.
Forcingpeople to move is not
enough, said AntoniaYulo-Loyzaga
of theboard of directorsofthe Ma-
nila Observatory, aresearch orga-
nization.They need to be able to find
work,orpublictransportation to get
there.
“You need some sort of rational,
organizedretreat from thecoast,”
shesaid. “There’s no option unless
youwantpeopletoliveinconstant
fear.”
To visitthe villageofPariahanislikevisitingthe last residents of the
mythicalcityofAtlantis.
Pariahan,anislandonceconnecte dtothe mainland by astrip of land,
at onepointhad about 100houses. Youcouldpickoystersfromthe sea
andJavaplums from thetrees.Childrenwenttoschoolhere. OnSun-
days,there wasMassatthe localchurch, itsdoorfacingManilaBay.
Arriving by boat from themainland, avisitor first seesacrowded
littl eisland, then afew solita ry houseson berms, then many moreaban-
donedhouses.Then, finally, acluster of houses,standingonstilts, and
boatsparkedout front.
There were salt flatsaroundPariahanlongago,thenfishponds,
whichdrewthe waterfrom undertheground. Thelandbeganto slowly
sink,and bythetimeapowerfulstormcamealong 10 yearsago the
isla nd hadbecome likeabowl. Thewate rroseupand poured in.“It
just came andnever left,”Benedicta Espiritu,53, alifelong resident,
recalled.
Pariahanwassubmerged.The school roofhasblown off. So Paria-
hanchildrenmust payfor a30-minute boat ride toattendclass,which
meanstheymiss moreoften than not. Once amonth,worshipers wade
into church;apriest is ferried in from anearbyvillage.
Ms.Espiritu fearsthatmovinganywhere elsewillbe prohibitively
expensive. “Whenyou have coffee, sugarand rice,lifeisgood,”she
said.“Theair is free.There’sasolarpanel for electricity.”
ButMs. Espiritu’s family hasbeentoldthatthe holdoutsofPariahan
willhave to leavesoon.Thereisaproposalto buildaprivateairport
nearby,onthe edge of theslowlyrisingManilaBay.
METROPOLITANMANILA
RisingWater, SinkingCity
SANFRANCISCO BAYAREA
APolitical LightningRod
PARIAHAN,JUSTNORTHOF MANILA
SurroundedbytheSea
TheproblemfacingmanyBay Area communitie s: How much do
youarmor thecoast,what doyouchoose tosave,and whowill have to
move?Managed retreat,asit’scalled, hasbecomeapoliti callysensi-
tive topic.
Moneycomplicates matters in other ways:Property taxesare akey
source of revenue. Forcingpeopletomoveawaywouldpunch holes
in city budgets. Andanyway, whowouldpay to buyouthomeowners?
Pacifica can’t. Some single-familyhousesonthe bluffare worthupto$1
million.
Already,there hasbeenunmanaged retreatinPacifica. Some sea
wallscrumbled, at onepointendangeringarow of apartments.The 52
tenantswereentitle dtozerocompensation.They just had to move.