2019-05-01_Discover

0 (not at risk)

0.1 – 4.

4.1 – 7.

7.1 – 9.

>9 (very high risk)

MAY 2019. DISCOVER 17

We already know flooding during extreme weather events, made worse by rising sea levels, threatens coastal communities and ecosystems

globally. Now, a team of European researchers has brought another target to our attention: the UNESCO World Heritage sites that dot the

Mediterranean coast. In a recent paper published in Nature Communications, the team estimated how likely these sites — including the

ancient Greek city of Ephesus and the Bahá’í Holy Places in Israel — will be submerged in the future.

Using sea-level rise predictions and flooding statistics from the Mediterranean Coastal Database, they calculated what that risk looks

like today and what it might be in 2100. The team found that 37 of the 49 Mediterranean sites are already in danger of experiencing a flood

event; this risk will increase to 40 sites by 2100.

But these events don’t threaten all sites equally. When determining risk, researchers considered how much of the site might flood, plus the

likely depth of water. This map shows the current and future flood risk for each site, from blue (no risk), to yellow (moderate), to red (very high).

“You can still go out in the world and see something that is so big,

that nobody has seen before. The world’s surface has been surveyed

forth and back with all kinds of things, satellites or whatever,

but you can still go out and make such a discovery.”

—Kurt Kjær, glacial geologist at the University of Copenhagen, on his team’s discovery of a 19-mile-wide impact crater in Greenland

Source: “Mediterranean UNESCO World Heritage at risk from coastal flooding and erosion due to sea-level rise,” Nature Communications, 2018

Current Risk

Predicted Risk

Future Flooding of Our Past

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Paphos

Dubrovnik

Naples

Tipasa

Byblos

Tyre

Te l -Av i v

Istanbul

Venice

Pisa

Rhodes

Delos

Butrint

Vicenza

Corfu

Val di Noto Ephesus

Acre

Gorham’s Cave

Complex Valletta

Sabratha