2020-03-01_The_Atlantic

18

PREDICTIONS

ILLUSTRATION BY DANIEL SAVAGE

I

In November, I visited

FiveThirty Eight’s offices in

New York on picture day. For

journalists who style themselves

as nerds, the formal photo shoot

was a mild form of torture. Nate

Silver, the site’s founder, donned

a blazer, forced a smile for his

headshot, then snuck away to

get back to work on the site’s

2020 primary forecast. Though

FiveThirtyEight now has a staff

of about 35, covering sports,

pop culture, and more, the

site’s essential element is still the

elaborate models Silver himself

builds to predict elections.

CAN YOU STILL

TRUST NATE SILVER?

The leader of the data revolution believes

he got 2016 right—and the rest of the

media is in danger of getting 2020 wrong.

BY DAVID A. GR AHAM