Time 23Mar2020

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TheView

As AmericAns Try
to decide whether
they’re too worried
about coronavirus or
not worried enough,
fears of recession have
shifted Washington
into action. Congress appears poised to
approve billions of dollars in emergency
funding. On March 3, the Federal Reserve
chipped in with an emergency interest-
rate cut of half a percentage point, the
biggest such cut since the 2008 financial
crisis. The Fed’s hope is to limit economic
damage inflicted by the virus by boost-
ing business confidence and household
spending, but the effect is to
remind us that already histori-
cally low rates leave the Fed
with limited ammunition. It’s
just one more source of anxi-
ety about the virus.
In reality, it is those who
live in parts of the world
where health systems are less
developed that have greatest
cause for concern—for both
their personal health and the
resilience of their economies.
The first week of March saw
the first confirmed corona-
virus case in sub-Saharan Africa. Chinese
workers were allowed to return to jobs in
Africa after the Chinese New Year holi-
day, making further spread of the virus
in Africa likely. In any pandemic, the
worst-case scenario involves its spread
into developing- world cities where huge
numbers of people live, health care facili-
ties are poor and millions lack the money
to afford whatever care is available. There
are also larger emerging- market coun-
tries that will take a huge economic hit
as a result of lost tourism. But the impact
of canceled travel would be much greater
in Saudi Arabia, where the kingdom’s
first confirmed coronavirus case has
closed Islam’s holiest sites to foreigners.
If Saudi authorities are forced to cancel
the hajj, the annual pilgrimage of millions
of Muslims to visit these sites, sched-
uled to begin in July, the impact would be

dramatic. Other countries that depend on
tourism revenue— particularly in South-
east Asia and Latin America—will face
tough losses.

even in the u.s., where this crisis has
only begun to make an impact, the re-
sponse may fall far short. There are some
shortages of crucial drugs and medical
equipment, in part because China re-
mains a critical part of supply chains.
Another worry: corona virus has been
swallowed into election- year politics.
President Trump, anxious to protect the
stock- market gains that he believes will
boost his chances of re-election, has ar-
gued that Democrats are ex-
aggerating the coronavirus
threat. Critics of the Presi-
dent warn that Trump will
lean heavily on the Fed for
more cuts, less for the sake of
U.S. economic resilience than
for the President’s political
fortunes.
In coming years, the coro-
navirus outbreak may be re-
membered as a milestone mo-
ment on the road toward the
end of the first phase of glo-
balization. Over the past few
decades, markets have opened, supply
chains have gone global, middle classes
have emerged, and new connections have
been made. More recently, a backlash
against the increasingly free flow of in-
formation, ideas, money, jobs and people
has created extraordinary political pres-
sures. The result has been tightened im-
migration rules, new barriers to trade
and investment, a shortening of supply
chains, a technological decoupling and
a new emphasis on country-first politics.
Coronavirus has already forced travel
restrictions, accusations between govern-
ments and a series of xenophobic attacks
in multiple countries. Depending on
the level of human and economic dam-
age this virus inflicts around the world,
coronavirus may one day be considered
an important turning point for the entire
global economy. •

THE RISK REPORT
The coronavirus’
blow to globalization
By Ian Bremmer

The
coronavirus
may be
remembered
as a
milestone
on the road
toward the
end of the
first phase of
globalization

SCIENCE
The limits of
DNA testing
While the lion’s share of
DNA-testing companies
cater to questions of
ancestry, health, paternity
and relatedness, much of
the emerging consumer-
genomics market falls
into lifestyle and fitness
categories. The claims, and
the science used to back
them up, are of varying
quality, and they target and
reinforce a deep-seated
belief that if we peer closely
enough, we’ll be able to
decipher nearly everything
about ourselves from the
ACGTs along the strands
of the double helix of
our DNA molecules. The
landscape is confusing
for the average consumer,
and it can be hard to tell
which genetic tests to take
seriously. But tests that
market “faux scientific
authority”aren’t just
harmless entertainment,
warns a 2019 paper by Eric
Topol and Emily Spencer
of Scripps Research
Translational Institute;
they threaten to diminish
consumer confidence in
the clinical genetic tests
that doctors order to guide
medical decisions.
—Libby Copeland

Adapted from the new book
The Lost Family: How DNA
Testing Is Upending Who
We Are

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