mortality rate of 1 per cent varies very widely among age groups, with those over 80 and those with pre-
exciting conditions most at risk.
The government therefore needs to take seriously the potential impact of a coronavirus outbreak in places
where the highest-risk individuals – whose average estimated mortality rate is around 15 per cent – live at
close quarters. It must propose an action plan targeted at care homes and geriatric wards; already hard-
pressed care providers need financial aid and extra staff.
When it comes to individual behaviour, the reported shortage of hand cleansers seems to confirm that the
message about hygiene is getting through. Between proper handwashing and banning all flights from China,
the former is a far more effective prophylactic.
While the public is naturally prone to worry, the fact remains that the vast majority of coronavirus cases will
be mild – nothing worse than a bad cough – and clear up in around three weeks. For the young, there is
minimal risk of complications; for those above middle age, the risks rise. Yet even among older patients, the
great majority will recover, according to the CMO. While coronavirus may seem like something out of
science fiction, it is not going to precipitate an apocalypse.
The “action plan” developed by ministers on the advice of the UK’s four chief medical officers and the
devolved administrations is sound. The four arms of the strategy are sensible and logical: contain, delay,
research and mitigate.
We are currently in the “containment” phase. We will likely move into “delay” in due course, now that a
few cases in the UK have been discovered unconnected to overseas travel – meaning the virus is currently
being carried in pockets across the UK. Working from home, football matches played behind closed doors,
schools closed, the establishment of “no-go areas” – all will possibly be necessary if the infection rate hits a
critical point.
Meanwhile, the government must urgently ensure financial support for the self-employed and casual
workers made to stay at home because of an infection. It is not good enough for the prime minister to dodge
and state that statutory sick pay provisions are “under review”.
On the “research” front, a new vaccine is already underway, and there are hopeful signals that one may be
available by the autumn. With some luck, the outbreak will have subsidised by the time summer turns to
winter.
Last is “mitigation”. Unpleasant as it may be, it could prove necessary to build additional morgues and
deploy troops to support the emergency services. Those are not reason for alarm, but reassuring signs that
the government is planning for the worst. So far, the government’s response has been proportionate and
guided by expert advice – a welcome change from its modus operandi.