in the UK could be off sick during the peak of the virus. And in the worst-case scenario, up to 80 per cent of
the population could be infected. It also says in the event of mass sickness, police services would focus on
responding only to serious crimes and maintaining public order while the NHS would be forced to
discharge patients and cancel operations. The army could also be called in to support civil authorities.
The extreme measures have been set out in the government’s “battle plan” to tackle the outbreak, published
yesterday, as the number of confirmed cases in the UK hit 51.
In a press conference at No 10, prime minister Boris Johnson said it was “highly likely” the UK will see a
growing number of cases of coronavirus. He said the government strategy was based on four phases –
“containing the virus, delaying its spread, researching its origins and cure and mitigating the impact, should
the virus become more widespread”.
Standing alongside the PM, chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance and chief medical officer Chris
Whitty said that if coronavirus took hold in the UK, the worst stage of the outbreak could be expected to
last around 12 weeks. Efforts were being made to delay that stage to the late spring and summer, to ensure
that its worst impact does not coincide with the usual winter pressures on the NHS.
Mr Johnson said that if the virus took hold, individuals would have to “self-restrain” from attending
hospitals, in order to reduce pressure on the health service, while the army would be available to “back-fill”
if police were forced to scale back their response to lower-level crimes.
The PM said there were “long-established plans by which the police will, obviously, keep the public safe but
they will prioritise those things that they have to do”.
He added: “And the army is of course always ready to back-fill as and when, but that is under the reasonable
worst-case scenario. I do think that this is a national challenge. The potential is there for this to be
something our country has to get through. But I am in absolutely no doubt we have the resources, we have
got the health service, we have got the experts to do it.
“And I am very confident that the British people understand that. I think the British public can see exactly
what the balance of risk is. I think we are getting some very clear advice. I think they are getting a very clear
picture of how they need to behave and I think we will get through it in very good shape.”
The government document sets out a string of measures to help the country cope with a sustained
pandemic outbreak of the disease. It said coronavirus, which originated in Wuhan, China, could lead to an
increase in deaths among “vulnerable and elderly groups” adding the government would provide support to
local councils on “dealing with this challenge”. This is understood to mean creating extra mortuary space
for the deceased in local areas across Britain.
The plan said: “It may be that widespread exposure in the UK is inevitable,” warning that as the outbreak
becomes worse “the pressures on services and wider society may start to become significant and clearly
noticeable”.
Although the UK is not yet at that stage, there is a growing acceptance in Whitehall that efforts to contain
the virus are likely to fail. The decision to escalate plans will be made by ministers on the advice of the chief
medical officer Professor Chris Whitty, once there is deemed to be “sustained transmission” in the UK.
Once the virus becomes widespread the government plan says it will expect to have to draw down on
stockpiles of medicines and discharge some patients earlier to make space in hospitals.
The plan also warned some NHS operations would be cancelled saying: “As NHS and social care staff also
start to become affected, and more seriously ill patients require admission, clinicians may recommend a
significantly different approach to admissions. Some non-urgent care may be delayed to prioritise and triage
service delivery. Staff rostering changes may be necessary including calling leavers and retirees back to