Financial Times UK - 03.03.2020

(Romina) #1

4 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES Tuesday 3 March 2020


its migration policy has come unstuck
in the face of rising anti-immigrant
sentiment across member states.
Ms von der Leyen has promised
to put forward a “new pact on migra-
tion”, which is intended to deal with
contentious issues, including the man-
datory quotas for relocation that pro-
voked outrage across eastern Europe in
2015.
Michael Roth, Germany’s Europe
minister, yesterday told Der Spiegel
news magazine it was “high time that we
as the EU finally wake up and develop a
sustainable migration concept”.
But EU officials admitted that work-
ing out a strategy to keep western and
eastern governments united was prov-
ing elusive. Countries led by Germany
wanted fair “burden sharing” of refu-
gees across Europe.
The Turkey deal was meant to
create some breathing space to allow
Europe to come up with a sustainable
internal system for handling refu-
gee policy in a more equitable
way, but Europe’s lack of
progress has left it vulnerable
when facing Mr Erdogan’s
threats.

Will Turkey secure more EU funds?
Despite his threats, Mr Erdogan will be
anxious to renew arrangements with
the EU. European governments are at
loggerheads over how to fund their next
long-term budget from 2021-27.
The bloc is facing a post-Brexit fund-
ing squeeze that is likely to cut cash for
spending projects such as patrols by the
Frontex, the EU’s border management
agency. Mr Erdogan may also want to
get more funds funnelled directly to his
government in future, rather than see-
ing them administered to third parties.
But one senior EU official admitted
that Europe could not afford to let the
deal slip. “The humanitarian conse-
quences of a fresh migration crisis —
especially for Turkey — are huge. We
will do a deal but not at a point where it
looks like we are being blackmailed,”
said the official.

What has changed in EU
migration policy since
2016?
Despite buying time with
the Turkey deal, Brussels’
a t t e m p t t o r e v a m p

tals. One Greek official said the deal was
all but “dead” after Athens decided to
suspend all asylum claims for a month
and deploy troops on its borders.
Ankara’s officials have also long
accused Europeans of failing to keep up
their end of the bargain on promises of
visa liberalisation and have demanded
the money is directly disbursed to the
government. The EU has also failed to
deliver on its targets to resettle refugees
from Turkey over the past three years.
But even before this week’s flare-up,
Brussels said it was committed to
renewing the deal with Mr Erdogan to
keep a lid on migration.
Ursula von der Leyen, commission
president, yesterday said Brussels was
ready to intensify talks with Ankara and
discuss “where support might be
needed and what is the right basis to
start a dialogue”. The commission has
refrained from accusing Mr Ergodan of
formally breaking the terms of the deal.
But as Mr Rutte’s comments show,
member states are likely to be divided
over extending further funding to Tur-
key. “There are children in the icy cold
no man’s land between Greece and Tur-
key,” said the Dutch prime minister.

M E H R E E N K H A N A N D SA M F L E M I N G
B R U S S E L S


The EU’s landmark migration deal with
Turkey is teetering on the brink after
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkish presi-
dent, last week said he would no longer
stop mainly Syrian refugees in his coun-
try heading to Europe.
The multibillion-euro accord —
forged by EU countries and Ankara in
2016 during the bloc’s migration crisis —
led to a precipitous drop in the number
of people crossing the Aegean Sea to
Greece. But in the past four days Tur-
key’s land border with Greece has seen
thousands of new arrivals, with people
being met by military forces wielding
tear gas as they sought to enter Europe.
Mark Rutte, Dutch prime minister, an
architect of the initial agreement, con-
demned Mr Erdogan for flagrantly dis-
regarding the terms of an agreement
under which Turkey is given European
cash to house millions of refugees. He
warned Europe should not renegotiate
with “a knife at its throat”.


What is the EU-Turkey deal?


The arrival in 2015 of more than 1m
mainly Syrian migrants on Europe’s
shores prompted European govern-
ments to strike a €6bn cash and resettle-
ment scheme with Ankara.
Under the “EU-Turkey statement”,
refugees arriving on Europe’s frontiers
were systematically turned back and
housed in Turkey. Ankara was also
promised that about 70,000 refugees
would be resettled from Turkey to the
rest of the EU that year.
In monetary terms, the European
Commission and EU member states
promised to fund projects to help the
integration of nearly 4m refugees in
Turkey. Rather than giving payments
directly to Ankara, disbursement is
made to about 100 projects. Three years
after the deal, irregular arrivals were
97 per cent lower than in the period
before the deal, according to a commis-
sion report last March.
Of the €6bn, the commission said
€4.7bn had been earmarked for initia-
tives and €2.3bn paid since 2016. The
commission called on Turkey to go
“back to the normality of how this deal
was applied before the end of this
week”.


Will the deal stay alive?


Mr Erdogan’s threats to open b orders
have poisoned relations with EU capi-


I N T E R N AT I O N A L


K E R I N H O P E— AT H E N S
L AU R A P I T E L— I S TA N B U L
M E H R E E N K H A N— B R U S S E L S


Greek authorities yesterday fired tear
gas and staged military exercises with
live ammunition on the country’s east-
ern borders in an effort to prevent the
crossing of thousands of migrants from
Turkey, deepening a stand-off between
Brussels and Ankara.
Tensions rose after more than 10,
people gathered outside a northern
Greek border post without shelter,
reviving fears of a repeat of the refugee
crisis that rocked the EU in 2015. Greece


has warned it would do “whatever it
takes” to protect its borders against
migrants after Turkey opened its end of
the border, breaking an agreement with
the EU that Ankara would hold back ref-
ugees from Syria in exchange for funds.
Turkey opened the gates to Europe
last week after the death of 34 Turkish
soldiers in the Syrian province of Idlib.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s leader,
has repeatedly called for international
help to stave off a Syrian regime offen-
sive in the rebel-held enclave that has
forced an estimated 1m people to flee
towards the Turkish border for safety.
Turkey is already home to more than
4m refugees from Syria and elsewhere
and Mr Erdogan has warned that his
country could not take any more.
Athens on Sunday announced it was

temporarily suspending its asylum
process in an attempt to reduce a grow-
ing numbers of arrivals by sea on the
eastern Aegean Islands. The Greek
coastguard has reported that a child
drowned when an inflatable boat

carrying almost 50 asylum seekers cap-
sized off the island of Lesbos, the main
destination for people being trafficked
from Turkey. All the others were res-
cued, a coastguard official said.
More than 800 asylum seekers landed

on Lesbos and another 200 on the
neighbouring islands of Chios and
Samos “in the past 24 hours, a big
increase on the normal daily number
that makes it across in calm weather”,
the same official said.
The influx of refugees landing on Les-
bos has exacerbated local tensions. The
island’s reception facilities are over-
crowded with migrants waiting for
months to have their asylum requests
processed before being transferred to
the Greek mainland to wait for a final
decision on their application.
Hundreds of Lesbos residents last
month clashed with riot police during
protests against a government decision
to build two new processing facilities.
Greece’s defence ministry yesterday
said that one-day military exercises

were carried out in line with Nato alli-
ance practice and involved units firing
heavy artillery weapons located on the
northern land border and on the eastern
Aegean Islands facing the Turkish coast.
European Commission president
Ursula von der Leyen, European Coun-
cil president Charles Michel and Euro-
pean parliament president David Sas-
soli are to visit the land border today
with Kyriakos Mitsotakis, the Greek
prime minister.
But Mr Erdogan said yesterday the
refugee flows would continue, despite
his receiving “telephone call after tele-
phone call” from European nations ask-
ing him to close the country’s borders.
“We told them: the issue is over. The
gates are open now. You are now taking
your share.”

S E BA ST I A N PAY N E— LO N D O N

Striking a free trade deal with the US
may deliver only a 0.16 per cent boost
to the UK economy over the next 15
years, the government said yesterday,
whichcriticssaywillfailtomakeupthe
lossintradefromleavingtheEU.

Releasing its negotiating objectives for
talks with Washington, the Department
for International Trade claimed a trade
pact could boost the UK economy by
£15.3bn “in the long run”. Scotland, the
Midlands and north-east England are
expected to benefit the most, the gov-
ernment added.
The DIT said that such a deal could
boost trade between 0.07 and 0.16 per
cent — prompting claims from some
trade experts that the net effect would
be negligible compared to the loss of
trade from leaving the EU’s single mar-
ket and customs union. A cross-
Whitehall study conducted in 2018 sug-
gested that growth would be reduced by
2 to 8 per cent in the same period.
But a UK-US trade deal is seen by
Brexiters as one of the biggest prizes
from leaving the EU, and would
strengthen transatlantic economic ties.
The government’s “negotiating objec-
tives” document said the UK is focused
on boosting trade for small- and
medium-sized businesses. Although the
primary focus of a deal is on goods trade,
the UK is also hopeful of boosting trade
in digital services and aims to boost
links on financial services.
The government is insistent that the
UK will not open up its public services to
the US. Throughout the 180 page docu-
ment, it states a dozen times that the
National Health Service is “not on the
table”, including the price paid for drugs
and services it provides. It also seeks to
maintain standards for consumers,
environment and food production.
Liz Truss, the international trade sec-
retary, said that the UK will not compro-
mise on standards in order to strike a
deal. “If we don’t get the deal we want,
we will be prepared to walk away, and
that includes the red lines of food stand-
ards and the National Health Service,”
she told the BBC.
According to the document, the UK is
seeking primarily to reduce tariff barri-
ers with the US. Trade experts said this
suggested that Boris Johnson’s govern-
ment has lowered its ambitions for a
comprehensive trade deal due to politi-
cal constraints.
David Henig, director of the UK Trade
Policy Project and a former UK govern-
ment trade official, said striking a deal
would be “tricky” due to differing food
and regulatory standards, along with
the demands of American farmers.
“The UK is seeking a relatively unam-
bitious trade deal with the US. It is defi-
nitely less ambitious than what was
being talked about six months ago,” said
Mr Henig. “The government appears to
be just focusing on tariffs, there’s not
much on financial services or services in
general.”
Mr Henig added that the scope of the
potential deal had also been reduced.
“No 10 appears to have become worried
about a US trade deal being seen as con-
troversial. Now they’re seeking a deal,
any deal, call it great and say we
achieved what nobody said we could. It’s
very Trumpian.”

Asylum seekers


Greece fires tear gas to stop refugee influx


Athens conducts military


exercises to deter those


fleeing Syrian conflict


Migration Brussels’ pact with Turkey on verge of collapse


Brexit


US-UK trade


deal will not


make up for


leaving EU,


critics say


No way through:
migrants and
refugees gather
yesterday on the
Turkish side of
the closed
Kastanies
border crossing
into Greece.
Below, President
Recep Tayyip
Erdogan
Dimitris Tosidis/EPA-EFE

There has been ‘a big


increase on the normal
daily number that makes

it across in calm weather’


SA M J O N E S— Z U R I C H

When Austrian Railways’ new night
train to Brussels departed from Vienna
for the first time in January, the coun-
try’s green “super minister” Leonore
Gewesslerwastheretoseeitoff.

The train, with a carbon footprint one-
tenth of the equivalent journey by air, is
a symbol of Austria’s new-found envi-
ronmental credentials under Chancel-
lor Sebastian Kurz, thanks to the
groundbreaking coalition forged last
month between his conservative Peo-
ple’s party and the Green party.
Ms Gewessler — whose sobriquet
derives from her vast portfolio which
straddles the environment, energy,
transport and innovation — is at the
forefront of the government’s pledge to
blaze a green trail, after the Greens
made gains in European parliament
elections last year.
But there are questions whether the
Greens can keep their agenda on track
while in power with Mr Kurz, whose
previous government entered a mark-
edly different coalition with the far-
right Freedom party. Some observers
say the Greens will struggle to dispel

criticism that they do not have the inter-
ests of Austria’s mostly conservative,
small-town and rural voters at heart.
“You have a lot more opportunity to
change something in government than
you do in opposition,” said Paul
Schmidt, head of the Austrian Society
for European Politics, a Vienna-based
think-tank. “That’s why [the Greens]
have taken this risk. But the question is
about implementation. They have this
super-ministry but the whole govern-
ment needs to move on these issues.”
Austria’s coalition of conservatives
and Greens is a recipe rarely tried in
Europe. Mr Kurz has suggested it might
offer lessons for neighbouring Germany,
where polls suggest a Green surge could
make the party a contender for govern-
ment alongside the ruling conservative
Christian Democratic Union.
The chancellor has given Ms Gew-
essler what is, on paper, a powerful min-
isterial portfolio, but the political cost
paid by the Greens has been steep. The
People’s party has its hands on most of
the other levers of government includ-
ing the big ministries of state: finance,
the interior and foreign and EU policy.
But Ms Gewessler “thinks politically,

and is able to bring politics into practice
to combine and find others’ needs and
work out how to bring these into a prac-
tical alignment”, said Susanne Rieger,
co-president of the Green European
Foundation’s board, who oversaw Ms
Gewessler during her time in Brussels as
director of the GEF from 2008.

Before entering parliament, as head
of Austria’s biggest environmental char-
ity, Global 2000, she championed a pop-
ular campaign against the expansion of
the ageing Soviet-era Mochovce nuclear
power plant in Slovakia, just 100km
from the Austrian border.
“She is very good at developing work-
ing relationships with people. She and
[Mr] Kurz had productive conversa-
tions over [Mochovce],” said Reinhard
Uhrig, political director of Global 2000.
But Mr Uhrig said Austria had a long
way to go: “There are very strong points

in the government programme, but
Austria has not been very good when it
comes to climate protection in the past.”
Carbon emissions have risen steadily
year on year in Austria since a 2014 low,
and the country is significantly above
the EU average. Yet the new govern-
ment’s goal is to achieve net zero emis-
sions by 2040. “The crucial point will be
March 18 when Gernot Blümel [the
finance minister] is going to present the
budget. If all these titles and subtitles in
the green plan are not funded, then it
means nothing,” said Mr Uhrig.
Mr Kurz may be wary of allowing his
coalition partners too much leeway. In
his last government, Mr Kurz was burnt
by ceding too much autonomy to the
far-right in sensitive policy areas such as
security. The finance ministry may
prove an invaluable lever to use this
time around.
But many also believe that Mr Kurz’s
interests are more aligned with the
Greens than may at first appear. “The
People’s party has to understand that
the Greens have to win as well in this
government, even if they are junior. I
think Kurz is very much aware of this,”
said Mr Schmidt.

Political tension


Austria’s Green party battles to make mark in coalition


Leonore Gewessler:
on paper she has a
powerful portfolio
but the People’s
party runs the big
ministries of state

STOCK MARKETSMar 30prev %chgWorldMarkets
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INTEREST RATESUK Gov 10 yrUS Gov 10 yr100.4698.87price1.212.38yield0.00-0.03chg
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STOCK MARKETSMar 31prev %chg WorldMarkets
S&P 500Euro Stoxx 50Dow Jones IndFTSEurorst 300Nasdaq Composite3495.591503.0320689.64 20728.49 -0.192367.105918.691500.725914.342368.06 -0.043481.580.070.150.
CAC 40Xetra DaxFTSE All-ShareFTSE 100 3990.007322.925122.5112312.87 12256.43 0.464011.01 -0.525089.647369.52 -0.630.
NikkeiHang SengFTSE All World $18909.26 19063.22 -0.8124111.59 24301.09 -0.78297.38298.11 -0.

CURRENCIES$ per €$ per £Mar 311.0701.2511.0741.249prev
SFr per €£ per €¥ per $€ index¥ per £139.338 139.035111.430 111.2951.0710.85588.767 89.0461.0690.859$ indexSFr per ££ per $€ per £¥ per €£ index€ per $119.180 119.476104.536 104.636Mar 3177.226 76.7050.8001.2521.1690.9350.801prev1.2441.1640.
Oil Brent $Gold $Oil WTI $COMMODITIESMar 311244.8553.3550.461248.8053.1350.35prev0.22%chg0.41-0.

INTEREST RATESUK Gov 10 yrUS Gov 10 yr 98.63price100.351.222.41yield-0.01chg0.
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Fed Funds EUK 3mUS 3m BillsEuro Libor 3mPrices are latest for editionData provided by Morningstar-0.360.780.660.34-0.360.660.340.780.000.000.000.

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