March/April 2020 39Such an approach is all the more
important given the realities o
nuclear
weapons in this new world. Both China
and Russia have reliable second-strike
nuclear capabilities—that is, the ability
to withstand an initial nuclear attack and
conduct a retaliatory strike that could
destroy the United States. Accordingly,
not only is nuclear war not a viable
option; even a conventional war that could
escalate to nuclear war risks catastrophe.
Competition must thus be tempered by
caution, constraints, and careful calcula-
tions in risk taking. For a nation that
has accumulated a long list o
entangle-
ments with nations that may have, or
may imagine they have, a blank check
from Washington, this creates a big
problem. The line between reassuring
an ally and emboldening its leadership
to act recklessly is a ne one.
I
the balance o
military power in a
conventional war over Taiwan or the
Baltics has shifted decisively in China’s
and Russia’s favor, current U.S. commit-
ments are not sustainable. The gap
between those commitments and the
United States’ actual military capabilities
is a classic case o
overstretch. What a
zero-based assessment would mean for
the current alliance system, and for U.S.
relations with each o
more than 50 treaty
allies and partners, should emerge as a
result o
an analysis o
the evidence. But
it would likely lead the United States to
shed some allies, double down on others
whose assets are as important for U.S.
security as U.S. assets are for them, and
radically revise the terms o
each commit-
ment to make obligations and restraints as
prominent as reassurances and guarantees.
This process would also enhance the
credibility o
the commitments that the
United States chose to renew. WhileTWO TITANS
CLASH OVER TRADE.CIGI Press books are distributed by McGill-Queen’s University Press (mqup.ca)
and can be found in better bookstores and through online book retailers.— Martin Wolf, Financial Times "Best Books of 2019 in Economics."“The MOST IMPORTANT book [on
trade] is Paul Blustein's....a very important
book on a very IMPORTANT SUBJECT.”— The Economist, "Our Books of the Year."“A FASCINATING, detailed account of
the HISTORY OF TENSIONS in
America’s trade relationship with China.”FA 39_rev.indd 1 1/20/20 9:48 AM