March 16, 2020 BARRON’S 13
PREVIEW
HOW BAD IS BAD?
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The FOMC announces its monetary-policy deci-
sion. Wall Street expects the central bank to cut
the fed-funds rate by a percentage point from the current rate of 1.00% to 1.25%.
Wednesday
Monday 3/
Coupa SoftwareandTencent Music
Entertainment Groupreport quar-
terly results.
Kohl’swebcasts its annual investor
day.
The Federal ReserveBank of New
York releases its Empire State Manu-
facturing Survey for March. Consen-
sus estimates are for a 0.5 reading,
down from February’s 12.9 figure.
Tuesday 3/
FedExreports earnings.
American Expresswebcasts its
2020 Investor Day.
The Census Bureaureports retail-
sales data for February. Expectations
are for a 0.2% gain, after a 0.3% rise
in January. Excluding autos, retail
sales are seen rising 0.3%, which
would match the January data.
The Bureau of LaborStatistics
releases its Job Openings and Labor
Turnover Survey for January. Econo-
mists forecast 6.35 million job open-
ings on the last business day of Janu-
ary, down slightly from December’s
6.42 million figure.
The National Associationof Home
Builders releases the NAHB/Wells
Fargo Housing Market Index for
March. Consensus estimates are for a
73 reading, similar to the February
data. Home builders remain bullish on
the housing market for the next six
months.
Wednesday 3/
General Millsreports quarterly
results.
Agilent TechnologiesandStar-
buckshost their annual shareholder
meetings.
The Census Bureaureports new
residential construction data for Feb-
ruary. Expectations are for a season-
ally adjusted annual rate of 1.48 mil-
lion housing starts, down from
January’s 1.55 million.
Thursday 3/
Accenture, Darden Restaurants,
andLennarreport earnings.
The Bank of Japanannounces its
monetary-policy decision. Traders
are predicting a 1 in 3 chance that the
BOJ will cut it key short-term inter-
est rate from the current level of neg-
ative 0.1%. The Japanese economy
was already weak before the recent
shock stemming from the coronavi-
rus outbreak.
The Conference Boardreleases its
Leading Economic Index for February.
Consensus estimates are for a flat
reading, after a 0.8% gain in January.
Friday 3/
The National Associationof Real-
tors reports existing-home sales for
February. Economists forecast a sea-
sonally adjusted annual rate of 5.
million homes sold, up 1.7% from
January’s 5.46 million.
AmEx, a Travel
Litmus Test
The coronavirus pandemic is causing massive flight
restrictions, event cancellations, and companies slash-
ing, if not prohibiting, employee travel. How bad is it?
Investors will get a better sense whenAmerican
Expressupdates investors on Tuesday.
American Express has not revised its guidance since
the outbreak began, unlike credit-card rivalsMastercard
andVisa.They warned that the outbreak was hurting
them and trimmed revenue guidance for the quarter. On
March 4, the day after Visa cut its guidance, AmEx’s
Chief Financial Officer Jeffrey Campbell admitted at a
conference that travel spending was slowing both to and
from China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, and Japan,
and within. Still, he added, “that is not a material part of
our business.”
Campbell said that AmEx’s Travel & Entertainment
unit now makes up a quarter of its business. In recent
years, AmEx has reduced its reliance on its traditional
charge card and corporate business and makes more
money from interest charges and other customer fees.
Since then, AmEx stock has fallen 21%, to $88, com-
pared with Mastercard’s 14% drop and Visa’s 11%. On
March 9, Credit Suisse analyst Moshe Orenbuch, who has
a Sell on AmEx stock, called Campbell’s comments “dis-
ingenuous,” given other credit card, airline, and travel
companies’ guidance cuts. On Tuesday, AmEx will bene-
fit from more complete information, but that’s a mixed
blessing. As Piper Sandler’s Christopher Donat noted this
past week, Visa and Mastercard’s previous guidance now
looks, if anything, too optimistic.—Ben Walsh
RacetoaBottom
The big three credit-card companies
have fallen in tandem as the global
pandemic took hold.
Source: FactSetVisa Inc. Cl AMastercard Inc.American Express Co.March
246101205%Elias SteinComing Earnings
Consensus Estimate Year ago
MAdvanced Emissions Solutions (Q4) 0.90 0.
FuelCell Energy (Q1) -0.08 -3.More Earnings on Page 36.Consensus Estimate
Day Consensus EstLast PeriodT Feb. Retail Sales 0.30% 0.30%
Feb. Industrial Production 0.30% -0.30%
Feb. Capacity Utilization 77.2% 76.8%
Jan. Business Inventories 0.0% 0.10%
Jan. JOLTS 6,350,000 6,423,
W Feb. Housing Starts 1,480,000 1,567,
TH Feb. Leading Indicators -0.25% 0.80%
F Feb. Existing Home Sales 5,525,000 5,460,Unless otherwise indicated, times are Eastern. a-Advanced;
f-Final; p-Preliminary; r-Revised Source: FactSetFor more information about coming economic reports- and what they mean - go to Barron’s free Economic
Calendar at http://www.barrons.com