Barron\'s 03.16.2020

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March 16, 2020 BARRON’S 13


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The FOMC announces its monetary-policy deci-


sion. Wall Street expects the central bank to cut


the fed-funds rate by a percentage point from the current rate of 1.00% to 1.25%.


Wednesday


Monday 3/


Coupa SoftwareandTencent Music


Entertainment Groupreport quar-


terly results.


Kohl’swebcasts its annual investor


day.


The Federal ReserveBank of New


York releases its Empire State Manu-


facturing Survey for March. Consen-


sus estimates are for a 0.5 reading,


down from February’s 12.9 figure.


Tuesday 3/


FedExreports earnings.


American Expresswebcasts its


2020 Investor Day.


The Census Bureaureports retail-


sales data for February. Expectations


are for a 0.2% gain, after a 0.3% rise


in January. Excluding autos, retail


sales are seen rising 0.3%, which


would match the January data.


The Bureau of LaborStatistics


releases its Job Openings and Labor


Turnover Survey for January. Econo-


mists forecast 6.35 million job open-


ings on the last business day of Janu-


ary, down slightly from December’s


6.42 million figure.


The National Associationof Home


Builders releases the NAHB/Wells


Fargo Housing Market Index for


March. Consensus estimates are for a


73 reading, similar to the February


data. Home builders remain bullish on


the housing market for the next six


months.


Wednesday 3/


General Millsreports quarterly


results.


Agilent TechnologiesandStar-


buckshost their annual shareholder


meetings.


The Census Bureaureports new


residential construction data for Feb-


ruary. Expectations are for a season-


ally adjusted annual rate of 1.48 mil-


lion housing starts, down from


January’s 1.55 million.


Thursday 3/


Accenture, Darden Restaurants,


andLennarreport earnings.


The Bank of Japanannounces its


monetary-policy decision. Traders


are predicting a 1 in 3 chance that the


BOJ will cut it key short-term inter-


est rate from the current level of neg-


ative 0.1%. The Japanese economy


was already weak before the recent


shock stemming from the coronavi-


rus outbreak.


The Conference Boardreleases its


Leading Economic Index for February.


Consensus estimates are for a flat


reading, after a 0.8% gain in January.


Friday 3/


The National Associationof Real-


tors reports existing-home sales for


February. Economists forecast a sea-


sonally adjusted annual rate of 5.


million homes sold, up 1.7% from


January’s 5.46 million.


AmEx, a Travel


Litmus Test


The coronavirus pandemic is causing massive flight


restrictions, event cancellations, and companies slash-


ing, if not prohibiting, employee travel. How bad is it?


Investors will get a better sense whenAmerican


Expressupdates investors on Tuesday.


American Express has not revised its guidance since


the outbreak began, unlike credit-card rivalsMastercard


andVisa.They warned that the outbreak was hurting


them and trimmed revenue guidance for the quarter. On


March 4, the day after Visa cut its guidance, AmEx’s


Chief Financial Officer Jeffrey Campbell admitted at a


conference that travel spending was slowing both to and


from China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, and Japan,


and within. Still, he added, “that is not a material part of


our business.”


Campbell said that AmEx’s Travel & Entertainment


unit now makes up a quarter of its business. In recent


years, AmEx has reduced its reliance on its traditional


charge card and corporate business and makes more


money from interest charges and other customer fees.


Since then, AmEx stock has fallen 21%, to $88, com-


pared with Mastercard’s 14% drop and Visa’s 11%. On


March 9, Credit Suisse analyst Moshe Orenbuch, who has


a Sell on AmEx stock, called Campbell’s comments “dis-


ingenuous,” given other credit card, airline, and travel


companies’ guidance cuts. On Tuesday, AmEx will bene-


fit from more complete information, but that’s a mixed


blessing. As Piper Sandler’s Christopher Donat noted this


past week, Visa and Mastercard’s previous guidance now


looks, if anything, too optimistic.—Ben Walsh


RacetoaBottom


The big three credit-card companies


have fallen in tandem as the global


pandemic took hold.


Source: FactSet

Visa Inc. Cl A

Mastercard Inc.

American Express Co.

March
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0

5%

Elias Stein

Coming Earnings


Consensus Estimate Year ago
M

Advanced Emissions Solutions (Q4) 0.90 0.
FuelCell Energy (Q1) -0.08 -3.

More Earnings on Page 36.

Consensus Estimate


Day Consensus EstLast Period

T Feb. Retail Sales 0.30% 0.30%
Feb. Industrial Production 0.30% -0.30%
Feb. Capacity Utilization 77.2% 76.8%
Jan. Business Inventories 0.0% 0.10%
Jan. JOLTS 6,350,000 6,423,
W Feb. Housing Starts 1,480,000 1,567,
TH Feb. Leading Indicators -0.25% 0.80%
F Feb. Existing Home Sales 5,525,000 5,460,

Unless otherwise indicated, times are Eastern. a-Advanced;
f-Final; p-Preliminary; r-Revised Source: FactSet

For more information about coming economic reports

Free download pdf