Barron\'s 03.16.2020

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18 BARRON’S March 16, 2020


that’s almost 5% of GDP, financed ex-


tremely cheaply. It would be hard polit-


ically to get this done without a reces-


sion, but it could be a big positive. The


recession could be mild.


What’s your outlook for bonds?


Unless we get a significant amount of


a lot of earnings growth. Short term,


there will be lowered earnings


expectations.


Becton Dickinson[BDX] is a


medical-device company. It has 85%


recurring revenue, consumables, and


$1 billion in research and development.


It’s investing in artificial intelligence


and electronic medical records and


informatics, but is down on concerns


about China. And, it had an earnings


miss with a pump recall. But we see a


three-to-10-year runway of mid-single


digit sales growth and double-digit


earnings growth.—R.K.


MERYL WITMER


Barron’s: Are you finding any


bargains in the rubble, Meryl?


Meryl Witmer:We have been putting


cash to work. At the start of the year,


everything seemed priced for where it


should trade in two years. We use an


8% to 9% discount rate, which implied


everything should have been 15% to


20% lower—and here we are. It is in-


teresting to see the theory of value in-


vesting play out.


At long last.


Charles Schwab[SCHW] is some-


thing we’re buying. It is sensitive to net


interest income, which will be lower,


but Schwab is a good company that


tries to delight the customer. We think


it will close its acquisition ofTD


Ameritrade Holding[AMTD] rela-


tively soon, which is good. We looked


at the stock before the deal and thought


it was too expensive around $40. Then


it went to $50, and now it is $33. We are


excited by that. Schwab has at least $3 a


share of earnings power over the next


few years. And, it might benefit from


the trouble Robinhood has had.


We’re also buyingPhillips 66


[PSX]. It has a refining business, mid-


stream assets, gas stations, and conve-


nience stores, and a business that


makes plastics from natural gas. That


division is underearning now, but will


tighten up in the next few years. We


expect Phillips to have $10 of earnings


power. We started buying it around


$70; now, it’s $55, and we continue to


buy. We think we’ll be quite delighted.


Phillips has a good balance sheet and a


good capital allocator in its CEO.


Anything else?


We boughtIngevity[NGVT] when it


was spun out ofWestRock[WRK] in


2016 at $25 a share. It went up to $115.


We sold it. Now it is $39. I never


thought we’d get a second bite. Ingevity


makes activated carbon, used in auto-


mobiles to absorb gas fumes. Every car


in the U.S. must have a system that


absorbs gas fumes. The company also


makes specialty chemicals from tall oil,


a byproduct of paper manufacturing.


They are used in adhesives, oil drilling,


pavements, and other things. On the


activated carbon side, there is a growth


engine built in, due to more stringent


regulations roll-


ing out in the U.S.


China and Brazil


have also upped


their regulations.


Earnings could


grow from


around $5 this


year to more than


$6 in a couple of


years.—L.R.R.


WILLIAM


PRIEST


Barron’s: What


lies ahead, Bill?


William Priest:At year end, we were


looking at fading concerns and modest


market returns. By March 9, every-


thing had changed as the spread of the


virus accelerated outside China. If it


spreads through the end of March, a


recession is almost a given. But reces-


sions aren’t the end of the world; they


have happened before. The question is,


how do you fight


this? Monetary


policy isn’t going


to work here. We


need fiscal-policy


solutions. Modern


monetary theory


is coming. We are


going to evolve


from a Milton


Friedman world


to something very


different. Quanti-


tative easing was


the forerunner.


What do youmean, exactly?


Under the Friedman model, the central


bank would create reserves that the


commercial banking system could take


down to make loans. Through that


mechanism, investments would be


made and the economy would grow.


And vice versa: If there was too much


inflation, you took money out of the


system. That model is going away. You


will see the central bank working much


more closely with the Treasury to allow


cheap financing of fiscal budgets. Com-


mercial banks’ role in money creation


will diminish.


If I were president, I would an-


nounce a major infrastructure plan. If


you announce a trillion-dollar plan,


“There is going


to be an


earnings crater.”


Todd Ahlsten
CIO, lead portfolio manager,
Parnassus Core Equity fund
Parnassus Investments
San Francisco

“Schwab...tries


to delight the


customer.”


Meryl Witmer
General Partner
Eagle Capital Partners
New York

“The leverage


in the system


is huge, and


it is kind of


covered up.”


William Prist
CEO and co-CIO
Epoch Investment Partners
New York

Too Cheap To Ignore


Our Roundtable experts are snapping up


stocks at bargain-basement prices in a


bet on an eventual market rebound.


Source: Bloomberg

Scott Black's Picks


Company / Ticker Recent Price


Oracle / ORCL $44.


United Parcel Service /


UPS






Merck / MRK 72.


Novartis / NVS 75.


Todd Ahlsten's Picks


Company / Ticker Recent Price


Applied Materials /


AMAT


$45.


Becton Dickinson / BDX 216.


Meryl Witmer's Picks


Company / Ticker Recent Price


Charles Schwab / SCHW $30.


Phillips 66 / PSX 47.


Ingevity / NGVT 34.


William Priest's Picks


Company / Ticker Recent Price


UnitedHealth Group /


UNH


$246.


Merck / MRK 72.


Amgen / AMGN 190.


CME Group / CME 168.


Henry Ellenbogen's Picks


Company / Ticker Recent Price


Quaker Chemical / KWR $130.


West Pharmaceutical


Services / WST






James Anderson's Picks


Company / Ticker Recent Price


Illumina / ILMN $214.


Mario Gabelli's Picks


Company / Ticker Recent Price


Herc Holdings / HRI $21.


Crane / CR 51.

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