Barron\'s 03.16.2020

M4 BARRON’SMarch16, 2020

EMERGING MARKETS

China,IndiaCould Lead

WayinStocks Rebound

I

t’s hard to think about dust settling

from the Covid-19 pandemic when

each day brings a blindingnew storm.

But the case is buildingthat China

and other emerging markets could lead the

inevitable reboundin stocks.

“We see a pretty bullish outlookfor

emerging markets,”says Olga Bitel, global

equity strategist at William Blair. “The last

few weeks have increasedour confidence

on the margin.”

As the U.S. and Europe scramble to

contain the mushroomingvirus, the much-

derided responsesof China and neighbor-

ing South Korea suddenly look Solomonic.

“What we’ve seen in China and Korea is

a textbookexample of how these emergen-

cies should be handled,” says Alejo Czer-

wonko, emerging markets strategist at

UBS Global Wealth Management. “Emerg-

ing markets are in a sense ahead of the

curve.”

China is particularly impressive with its

policy responseto Covid-19’s economic

damage. Beijing’s fiscal stimulus should

amount to some 2% of gross domestic

product, Czerwonko estimates, through

targeted measures rangingfrom cutting

employers’ social security tax to subsidiz-

ing rent for small businesses.

Western democracies, with their heavy

government debt loads and fractious poli-

tics, will strain for such scale and preci-

sion, says David Dali, portfoliostrategist at

Matthews Asia. “There’s a verystrong

perceptionthat the Chinesegovernment

has the firepower and can use it as

needed,”he says.

Emerging markets are getting an unex-

pectedbonus from oil prices,which have

plunged by a third, to a four-year low,

since the top two exporters,Saudi Arabia

and Russia, failed to agree on production

curbs on March 6.

Crude will remaindepressedeven after

the global economy starts reboundingfrom

the coronavirus shock later this year, Bitel

predicts.

“Lower oil prices from the Saudi-Russia

split are likely to last longer than the epi-

demic,”she says. That’s good news across

Asia, especially India, where petroleum

imports exceeded 3% of gross domestic

product in the last fiscal year.

The current market tumult could at last

underminea dollar whose strength

through most of the past decade has prob-

ably been the biggest drag on emerging

market stocks.

The trade-weighted greenback has

climbed by a third since 2011, dimmingthe

allure of ex-U.S. investments. But the halv-

ing of 10-year Treasury yields over the

past three weeks to less than 1% is tarnish-

ing their attraction as a haven.

A federal budget deficit already pushing

5% of GDP before anti-crisis measures

does not bolster confidence either.

“This could represent an inflection

point lower for the U.S. dollar,” says Howie

Schwab, an emerging markets portfolio

manager at Driehaus Capital Management.

“EM currenciesare as low as they have

been relative to global exportshare.”

Calamity at home and the approaching

U.S. electionmay also make President

DonaldTrump less keen to re-escalate a

trade conflict with China that held down

emerging markets most of last year, adds

Tim Murray, a multi-asset capital markets

analyst at T. Rowe Price.

“The silver lining here may be that trade

wars get pushed onto the back burner,” he

says.

The prevailing tide won’t lift all emerg-

ing markets equally, investors caution.

Latin Americais dominated by Brazil,

Mexico, and other oil exportersthat will

suffer from the price collapse.

Countries with precariouscurrent ac-

count positions may get walloped by fear

in global credit markets. Schwab of Drie-

haus is underweighting Turkey and South

Africa on this premise. But China,India,

and other core Asian markets may bounce

back soonerthan you think.B

ByCraigMellow

EUROPEAN TRADER

U.K.Quality-ControlFirm

FailsTestforGoodValue

P

roduct-testing companyIntertek

Grouphas had a good run as cus-

tomersincreasingly need quality

and safety assurancein an era of

rising regulation.

TheBritishcompany, acomponentof

the FTSE 100 index, has seen itsshares

(ticker: ITRK.UK) rise 269% overthe past

decade but sink recentlyalong with most

of itspeers. Shares are down 18%this

year.

Intertekearlier this month warned that

its performancewill be affectedby the

coronavirus, which has disrupted the sup-

ply chains of its clients in China.While it

has operations in more than 100 countries,

including Hong Kong and Taiwan, about a

fifth of group revenues comes from China.

Intertek tests, inspects,and certifiesa

range of products including appliances,

furniture, medicaldevices, and food.

The company’s relianceon international

trade—which is under pressure from trade

wars and fallout from the virus—means

Intertek isn’t a good short-term bet, and

investors should take profits. Its business

thrives off the free movement of goods.

The more trade, the more items cross bor-

ders, requiring validation that they comply

with local consumer laws.

Last week Intertek said it’s too early to

gauge the impact of the virus on its busi-

ness. The company already has shut a gar-

ment center in Kowloon for two weeks,

after an employee becameill.

Broker RBC Capital Markets has

marked the stock Underperform,with a

target price of 4,000 pence. Shares are

currently trading at about 4,850 pence.

Morningstar Equity Research predictsthe

stock will fall to 3,900 pence.

Kate Somerville,ananalystatRBC,told

Barron’sthatthe stock“is trading at the top

of itspeers despite delivering the lowest

organic growth overthe pastfiveyears.”

The firm, which has 46,000 employees

and a market value of £8.7 billion($11.3

billion), fetches a fat 25.3 times this year’s

expectedearnings and is valued at a 20%

premium to its peers. Last week it posted

strong 2019 figures,with a significant

6.8% dividend hike and pretaxprofit of

£443 millionfor the 12 months ended Dec.

Revenues were £2.9 billion.

Chief Executive OfficerAndréLacroix

toldBarron’sthat 2019 “was the fifth con-

secutive year of revenue, EPS, and cash

progression,which is a testament to our

strong operating platform.”

Shore Capital forecasts that earnings

could rise by 12% to £496 millionby 2021.

Intertek traces its history back 130

years, when three quality-testing compa-

nies were formedand later merged. In

1885, Caleb Brett’s British marine-survey-

ing businessofferedtesting and certifica-

tion of ship cargo. Three years later in

Montreal, Quebec, Milton Hersey estab-

lished a chemical-testing laboratory, and in

AmericaThomas Edison’s Lamp Testing

Bureau was formedin 1896.

They each came together over the next

century, under Inchcape, which bought

multiple testing and inspectioncompanies.

Inchcape diversified,and in 1996 sold its

testing business,which was renamedIn-

tertek. Intertek later listed on the London

Stock Exchange, and entered the FTSE

100 in 2009.

Intertek has offeredlong-term pros-

pects in an environment increasingly fo-

cused on compliance. But it’s heavily ex-

posed to China,with little meansto

mitigate such geographical reliance. Its

core businessis in testing, and if there are

fewer manufactured items to test, that’s a

strategic challenge that is hard to offset.

The worry is that it’s impossible to

quantify the short-term hit or its duration.

Accordingto Shore Capital, “We clearly

can’t rule out a longer lasting economic

impact”and that “some revenue is likely to

be lost permanently.”

Investors with a taste for assurance

should look elsewhere for reassuranceof

future value.B

ByRupertSteiner

BLACK

March16, 2020 BARRON’S M3 7

NYSEAMER

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NASDAQ

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CONFERENCECALLCALENDAR

Earnings-Related Company Date Time Earnings-RelatedPeriod

Accenture March 19 8:00AM Q2 BaxterInternational March 17 8:30AM Q4 DardenRestaurants March 19 8:30AM Q3 Lennar March 19 11:00AM Q1 Source:CCBN,www.ccbn.com

Market Laboratory

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NewHighs 30 182 NewLows 2535 174 2339

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