National Geographic - USA (2020-04)

Phoenix, U.S. will have a climate like

NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC

EARTH DAY 2070

IT’S NOT CLEAR WHETHER WE
WILL REIN IN OUR CARBON
EMISSIONS. IT’S MUCH CLEARER
WHAT THE CLIMATE WILL BE LIKE
IF WE DON’T: NOT GOOD.

BY KAYA LEE BERNE,

ALEJANDRA BORUNDA,

RILEY D. CHAMPINE,

AND JASON TREAT

PAGE 58

0.0

1.0 (1.8)

2.0 (3.6)

3.0 (5.4)

4.0 (7.2)

1970 PROJECTED 2070

Best-case

scenario

(RCP 2.6)

Worst-case

scenario

(RCP 8.5)

Difference in global

baseline temperature

from preindustrial average

(1861–1900)

in degrees Celsius ( ̊F)

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change identifies

future climate scenarios, called representative concentration

pathways (RCPs), ranging from worst-case scenario, RCP 8.5,

to best, RCP 2.6. Data here use RCP 8.5 unless otherwise noted.