will (^) have a climate (^) like
days over 95°F
2005 2080
MEXICO
BRAZIL
UNITED STATES
NORTH
AMERICA
SOUTH
AMERICA
124 186
0 8
62 271
Phoenix
San José,
Costa Rica
Parauapebas
A TROUBLED SOUTH
Higher temperatures exacerbate health risks
in the already hot parts of the U.S., such as the
South and the Southwest, especially for low-
income and vulnerable populations. Without new
measures to shield them—or to cut emissions—
mortality from all causes could rise dramatically.
DANGEROUS DAYS
Since 1970, the global average temperature has
increased 0.17°C (0.3°F) a decade, more than
double the rate in all of the 20th century. Heat
wave frequency and length will continue to rise,
resulting in an unprecedented number of days
when people have to take measures to stay cool.
HEAT WILL GET DEADLY
By 2070, the climate in Phoenix, Arizona,
already burning hot, will feel like today’s Chowki
Jamali in Pakistan’s Balochistan Province, a
high- desert region hit hard by drought and
sky-high temperatures. Farmers there already
schedule working hours for brief stretches of
bearable temperatures in the early morning
(which stand to shrink even further by 2070).
Phoenix has shattered 34 daily heat records
during the past decade; heat stress in the city
hits low-income neighborhoods harder than
wealthy ones, which often have more trees and
cooling strategies to mitigate sweltering tem-
peratures. By 2070 the annual number of days
over 95°F in Phoenix is predicted to top 182—
about half the year. But it’s not just obviously
hot places that will experience an increase in
deadly heat: Today’s temperate cities, where
cooling infrastructure doesn’t exist or is pro-
hibitively expensive, will struggle mightily to
keep their populations cool and safe.
SAN JOSÉ,
COSTA RICA
PARIS,
FRANCE
DAR ES SALAAM,
TANZANIA
PARAUAPEBAS,
BRAZIL
MONTEFIASCONE,
ITALY
RAYONG,
THAILAND
Phoenix today Phoenix in 2070
Summer Winter Summer Winter
AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE
AVERAGE
RAINFALL
103.7 ̊F (high)
73.2 ̊ (low)
(^68) ̊
39.8 ̊
111.9 ̊F
(^82) ̊ 75.3 ̊
45.7 ̊
2.2 in. 2.9 2.3 2.8
PHOENIX, UNITED STATES,
WILL HAVE A CLIMATE LIKE
TODAY’S BALOCHISTAN, PAKISTAN.
This city in 2070 will have a climate like
Less than one
Number of days
over 95°F per year
2080–2099
60
90
120
150
180
270
365
30
15
U.S. average (9.2)
-20 0 20 40
Mortality rate by end of century
(change in deaths per 100,000 from 2012)
antfer
(Antfer)
#1