National Geographic - USA (2020-04)

San Diego will have a climate like

Artemisa, Cuba

Rio de

Janeiro,

Brazil

MEXICO

UNITED STATES

MEXICO

UNITED STATES

NORTH AMERICA

SOUTH

AMERICA

1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070

Number of

people exposed to

100-year floods

Using constant 2005

population figures

1970

5.6 million

PROJECTED

2070

(projected)

52.3 million

STRESSED FOR WATER

The global population is expected to

reach 10.5 billion in the next 50 years. The

demand for water will diminish the world’s

freshwater systems, further escalating

competition, conflict, and migration.

MORE FLOODING

What once were 100-year

floods—with only a one percent

chance of occurring in a given

year—will become more frequent,

thanks to amplified precipitation.

The large population centers of

Asia and Africa are most at risk.

In 50 years the climate profile of Manila will

resemble that of present-day Idukki, in Kerala,

India, where monsoon flooding in 2018 was

responsible for more than 400 deaths and the

displacement of millions. Today Manila is one

of the fastest growing metropolitan areas on

Earth, and one of the wettest. Typhoon Ketsana

in 2009 covered Manila in almost 18 inches

of rain in a single day—over a month’s worth

in only 12 hours. More than 200 people died.

As the climate changes, wet places such as

the tropics of Southeast Asia are likely to get

much wetter. A hotter atmosphere holds more

water, which means more rain falling more

intensely during the rainy season. At the same

time it aggravates drought, including outside

of the tropics: Hotter air sucks more water out

of plants and soil, drying the land. Too little

water in vast swaths of the planet, too much in

others—that’s how climate change is rewriting

the story of water on Earth.

RISING WATER ANXIETY

SAN DIEGO,
UNITED STATES

RIO DE JANEIRO,
BRAZIL

CHENNAI,
INDIA

TAROUDANT,

MOROCCO

ARTEMISA,

CUBA

AD DARB,

SAUDI ARABIA

MANILA, PHILIPPINES,

WILL HAVE A CLIMATE LIKE

TODAY’S KERALA, INDIA.

Manila today Manila in 2070

Water stress, 2040

This index, constructed by

the World Resources Insti-

tute, measures demand for

water against the available

supply of water.

High water stress

Low water stress

Arid with low water use

No data

Water stress doubles or

more from 2020 to 2040

This city in 2070 will have a climate like

Summer Winter Summer Winter
AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE

AVERAGE

RAINFALL

(^92) ̊F (high)

76. 2 ̊ (low)

(^86) ̊
71.1 ̊
96.6 ̊F
80.7 ̊
90.5 ̊
75.7 ̊
6.6 in. 3.5
17.8
6.1