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TRYING TO PREDICT THE
FUTURE IS LIKE DRIVING
WITH NO LIGHTS LOOKING
OUT OF THE BACK WINDOW
FORECASTING
F
orecasting sales is one of a
marketer’s most important
roles. Other management
departments in a company will
make critical decisions that affect
the entire organization, based on
the information that the marketer
provides about the anticipated
performance of a company’s
products in the marketplace.Marketers first suggested the idea
of using economic models to
forecast regional sales in the 1930s,
and from the 1950s onward the idea
of quantitative and qualitative
approaches emerged. Qualitative
forecasting relies on the expertise
of managerial staff and their
acquired knowledge about market
reactions. Quantitative forecastingPredicting the performance of a product
in the market relies on...However, forecasting can never take
unforeseen events into account....qualitative
analysis of
behavior in the
market....simulations
of the effect
of external
factors
on sales....quantitative
analysis of
sales data.IN CONTEXT
FOCUS
ForecastingKEY DATES
1939 A quantitative method of
forecasting is developed, using
past sales correlation.1959 Project RAND, a think
tank assembled by the US
Air Force, creates the Delphi
technique for forecasting
using expert opinions.1970 British mathematicians
George Box and Gwilym
Jenkins develop a
sophisticated model for
picking out trends from
historical data.1980s Computerized
forecasting models appear,
such as INFOREM and E3.2003 Sunil Chopra and Peter
Meindel at Northwestern
University, IL, emphasize the
link between accurate
forecasting and supply-chain
management.