338
Second Green Revolution, but this,
too, proved controversial. GM crops
are foods produced from organisms
that have had changes added into
their DNA via genetic engineering.
They were introduced in America
in 1994 when the US Food and Drug
Administration (FDA) approved
the Flavr Savr tomato for sale. The
delayed-ripening tomato had a
longer shelf-life than conventional
tomatoes, but trials using potatoes
suggested that GM produce was
toxic to rats. Most European Union
(EU) governments banned the use of
GM crops, while supporters of GM
suggested that without genetic
intervention, the world was destined
to starve. Advocates of GM—notably
the US, Brazil, Canada, Argentina,
and Australia—believe it has the
potential to combat disease andhunger. The feeling in Europe,
Africa, and Asia is more cautious,
with concern about pesticides and
possible harm to health.
Despite such opposition, GM
technology is still being developed.
It is thought that 670,000 children
die from lack of vitamin A each year,
a deficiency that causes diseases
such as malaria and measles and
leads to blindness. Advances in
the tackling of such deficiencies
include, for example, the creation of
“golden rice,” in which vitamin A
is added to ordinary rice.Disappearing farmland
While more—and stronger—crops
were needed to feed an ever-
growing global population, cities
have swallowed up large tracts
of farmland and rural areas. AtGLOBAL POPULATION EXCEEDS 7 BILLION
the beginning of the 21st century,
China experienced an onslaught
of urban development that meant
the loss of a large number of the
country’s tiny farms.
People have historically been
drawn to cities for employment and
social opportunities. In 1800, one
in four British people lived in cities,
but by 1900 this had grown to three
in four. Many moved from rural
areas to the city, but people also
moved from one country to another
seeking refuge and a better life.
The urban population in 2014
accounted for 54 percent of the
total global population, up from
34 percent in 1960. In 2014, the
UN predicted that two-thirds of
the world will live in cities by- However, lack of affordable
accommodation is a key factor in
homelessness: in sub-Saharan
Africa, 70 percent of city-dwellers
live in slums. Poor health and
violent crime is an issue in the
world’s major cities, as is the huge
disparity between rich and poor.
Climate change
Urbanization and development
have placed increasing stresses on
the environment. As the world’s
population grew, it became aThis is not a political issue. Or
a cultural issue. It’s not about
saving whales or rainforests ...
This is an emergency.
Stephen Emmott
Computer scientist and authorThis graph plots the projected high,
medium, and low global population
projections for 2100, based on a 2010 United
Nations report, alongside historical estimates
(the black dotted line) from the US Census
Bureau and actual recorded figures (in blue).1820 2100High projection
Almost 16 billion
people worldwide.Medium projection
More than 10 billion
people worldwide.Low projection
Just over 6 billion
people worldwide.BILLIONS OF PEOPLE161514131112109 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0US_334-339_Population.indd 338 15/02/2016 16:46
339
global challenge to improve living
standards without destroying the
environment. Scientists believe
that human activity is to blame
for climate change (or “global
warming”). Since the Industrial
Revolution in the 19th century,
global temperatures have continued
to rise, with 2011–15 the warmest
five-year period on record.
Some of the reasons behind
climate change are due to natural
occurrences, but in the early 1970s
the rise of environmentalism raised
public doubts about the benefits
to the planet of human activity.
Developing nations were being
urged to reduce carbon emissions,
which are thought to effect climate
change. In 2015, India was opening
a mine a month to lift its 1.3 billion
citizens out of poverty rapidly.
Developed countries, which had
themselves contributed to climate
change, caused a new tension by
suggesting that developing nations
should cease exploiting their own
natural resources to improve the
economic well-being of their people.Scientists warned that humans
would pass the threshold beyond
which climate change becomes
catastrophic and irreversible if
greenhouse-gas emissions kept
increasing. Sea levels are also
rising, eroding coastal areas and
obliterating small islands in the
South Pacific. Rainfall patterns are
changing, leading to severe drought
in Africa, and many species of
animals are in danger of extinction.
The threat of climate change is
now considered so serious that
leaders from around the world met
in 2015 in Paris, France, at a
conference to agree to reduce the
build-up of greenhouse gases. In
fraught negotiations, developing
countries demanded that wealthier
nations help pay for them to adapt
to the effects of climate change,
such as increased floods and
droughts. In all, 196 nations
adopted the first ever universal,
legally binding, global climate deal,
limiting global warming to the
relatively safe level of 3.6°F (2°C).A hungry world
In the 1970s, ecology movements
predicted that hundreds of millions
would die from mass starvation byTHE MODERN WORLD
the mid-1980s. This dire prediction
did not come to pass, but with an
astonishing 7 billion humans on the
planet, there is an inevitable drain
on natural resources. Overfishing,
particularly in Indonesia and China,
has led to fish stocks around the
world falling rapidly, and the
demand for water could soon
outstrip supply. In 2015, the UN
predicted that 1.8 billion people will
be living in countries or regions
with absolute water scarcity by- Coal, which drives industry
and production, is in increasing
demand but will eventually run out.
The UN estimates that by 2050
the global population will be at 9.7
billion, and that by 2100, 11.2 billion
people will inhabit the Earth.
Population dynamics are changing
from high mortality and high
fertility to low mortality and low
fertility, with an increasingly elderly
population worldwide, which will
be difficult to support. Challenges
such as climate change, migration
and refugee crises, food and water
insecurity, poverty, debt, and
disease are greatly exacerbated by
rapid population growth. Stabilizing
the growth of the world’s population
may be the key to global survival. ■
We are not going
to be able to
burn it all.
Barack Obama
On fossil fuelsThe severe air pollution caused
by power plants in developing nations
is having an enormously detrimental
effect on the health of those people
who live nearby.US_334-339_Population.indd 339 15/02/2016 16:46