The Science Book

A CENTURY OF PROGRESS 155

This weather station, located in
the remote mountains of Ukraine,
sends data on temperature, humidity,
and wind speed via satellite to
weather supercomputers.

was operating so effectively that
he could get a daily snapshot of
weather patterns right across
Western Europe. Patterns in the
weather were revealed so clearly
that he could forecast how it was
likely to change over the next day
at least—and so produce the first
national forecasts.

Daily weather forecasts
Every morning, weather reports
would come to FitzRoy’s office from
scores of weather stations across
Western Europe, and within an
hour, the synoptic picture was
figured out. Instantly, forecasts
were despatched to The Times
newspaper to be published for
all to read. The first weather
forecast was published by the
newspaper on August 1, 1861.
FitzRoy set up a system of
signaling cones in highly visible
places at ports to warn if a storm
was on the way and from which
direction. This system worked so
well that it saved countless lives.
Some shipowners, however,
resented the system when their
captains began to delay setting
sail if warned of a storm. There
were also problems disseminating
the forecasts in time. It took 24
hours to distribute the newspaper,
so FitzRoy had to make forecasts for
not just one day ahead but two—
otherwise the weather would have
happened by the time people read
his forecasts. He was aware that
longer-range forecasts were far
more unreliable, and was frequently
exposed to ridicule, particularly
when The Times disassociated
itself from mistakes.

FitzRoy’s legacy

Faced with a barrage of ridicule

and criticism from vested interests,

the forecasts were suspended and

FitzRoy committed suicide in 1865.

When it was discovered that he had

spent his fortune on his research

at the Meteorological Office, the

government compensated his

family. But within a few years,

pressure from mariners ensured

that his storm warning system was

again in widespread use. Picking

up the detailed forecasts and storm

warnings for particular shipping

areas is now an essential part of

every mariner’s day.

As communications technology

improved and added ever more

detail to the observational data,

the value of FitzRoy’s system came

into its own in the 20th century.

Modern forecasting

Today, the world is dotted with

a network of more than 11,000

weather stations, in addition to the

numerous satellites, aircraft, and

Having collated and duly

considered the Irish telegrams

[or from any other weather

area], the first forecast for that

district is drawn...and

forthwith sent out for

immediate publication.

Robert FitzRoy

ships—all continuously feeding

information into a global

meteorological data bank. Powerful

number-crunching supercomputers

churn out weather forecasts that

are, in the short-term at least,

highly accurate, and a huge range

of activities, from air travel to

sports events, rely on them. ■