THENEWYORKER,FEBRUARY10, 2020 51
dition to reprisals against our people
and our partners in the region, there’s
now risk of being forced out of Iraq,
which means we’d also need to leave
Syria—precisely what Trump wants.
It’s also what Suleimani wanted. So if,
by Suleimani’s death, we are forced out
of Iraq, that to him is a perfect death.
That would be the final irony.” Mike
Morell, the former deputy director of
the C.I.A., said, “We haven’t dealt with
the strategic problem that exists. If any-
thing, this will strengthen the opposi-
tion to the United States. This guaran-
tees that there’s no negotiated way out
of this mess with them.” Brennan, the
former C.I.A. director, said that he be-
lieved the killing of Suleimani was il-
legal: “Just because a single lawyer, or
even a group of lawyers, says that some-
thing is lawful, that does not make it
lawful. It just means you got someone
to say that.”
In closed-door briefings to Congress,
Esper and Milley were asked by law-
makers if the Administration would use
the Suleimani operation as a precedent
for attacking other top Iranian leaders,
such as the Ayatollah. They roundly
dismissed the idea. But Iran and its
proxies across the Middle East could
regard the killing of Suleimani as prec-
edent for their own conduct. Brennan
said that the result of Trump’s decision
was that, in effect, “anybody would be
fair game.” He added, “I still believe
that the Iranians feel as though they
have not had their ‘eye for an eye’ mo-
ment for Suleimani. I think the attack
against the base in Iraq that injured a
few U.S. soldiers was cathartic from the
standpoint of domestic politics, but there
are people who are going to want to
avenge Suleimani’s death at some point,
at some place, with blood.”
Thomas P. Bossert, who served as
Trump’s homeland-security and coun-
terterrorism adviser from 2017 to 2018,
said, “The concern in the Bush and
Obama Administrations was that Is-
rael, unilaterally, would do something
escalatory against Iran, and draw the
U.S. into a conflict. Back then, Israel
didn’t know whether the U.S. would
join in an attack to prevent Iranian nu-
clear advancement.” He added, “Now
the Israelis must be concerned that the
U.S. might unilaterally escalate.”
In private, by all accounts, Netanyahu
was jubilant. “The killing of Suleimani
changed everything,” the Israeli diplo-
mat said. Netanyahu’s camp believed it
set back the prospect of a diplomatic
opening between Trump and Rouhani,
and it signalled a new determination to
keep pressure on Iran.
To replace Suleimani, Iran promoted
his longtime deputy, Esmail Ghaani.
It is difficult for foreign analysts to
know how formidable an enemy Ghaani
will prove to be. “Someone who was
deputy for twenty years is not a star,”
the former Israeli security official said.
“You are playing the second violin in
the orchestra.” At a minimum, Ghaani
will need time to build up stature and
credibility.
On January 6th, Iran held a funeral
service for Suleimani. Millions of citi-
zens flooded the streets of Tehran, form-
ing a larger procession than any since
the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Kho-
meini, in 1989. The Supreme Leadermade a rare public appearance and wept
over the casket. In multiple cities, in-
cluding Baghdad, where a memorial
was attended by the Iraqi Prime Min-
ister, throngs of marchers chanted and
vowed revenge. In Kerman, Suleima-
ni’s home town, a stampede killed fifty-
six people.
Watching the event in Tel Aviv, the
former Israeli intelligence officer was
uneasy. “Something is bothering me,”
he said. “If I want to lower the flames,
I will bury him with three or five hun-
dred people, even with the leadership
there. I will keep it very quiet.” This was
nothing like the fraught sendoff for
Mughniyeh after the bombing in Da-
mascus, or the unceremonious disposal
of Suleiman’s remains. The leaders of
Iran settled on a very different message.
“There were millions of people in the
streets of Iran,” he said. “For three days.
They’re transmitting to the Iranian peo-
ple: They will never be able to forgive.”“Look—I’m cold, you’re cold. Why don’t we
settle down and start a family?”