The Economist 29Feb2020

The EconomistFebruary 29th 2020 Leaders 9

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fghanistanhasbeenatwarformorethan 40 years—lon-
gerthanmostoftheworld’s populationhasbeenalive.
AmericaandtheinsurgentsoftheTalibanhavebeenbattlingfor
closeto 19 years,makingtheconflictthelongestAmericahas
everfought.Some2,500Americansoldiershavedied.Thedirect
costtoAmericantaxpayersisapproaching$1trn.ForAfghans,
thetollismuchhigher.Roughly3,500civiliansdieeveryyear,
andtheirravagedcountryisthepoorestinAsia.
It canbeonlya goodthing,therefore,thatAmericaandtheTa-
libanplantosigna peaceagreementonLeapDay(February29th),
providedrelativecalmprevailsuntilthen.Americawillunder-
taketosendhomemostofits12,000troopsinAfghanistan.Inex-
change,theTalibanwillpromisenottograntsanctuarytofor-
eignterrorgroupssuchasal-Qaeda,andtobegin
talkswithAfghanpoliticiansthatwillbringan
endtothecivilwar(seeAsiasection).
Thisarrangementisfarfromperfect,inlots
ofways.AmericacouldnotforcetheTalibanto
endhostilitiesaltogetherbeforethesigningof
the deal.Either becausecentralcommanders
cannotcontroltheirdisparatefightersorbe-
causetheyareunwillingto,thebesttheinsur-
gentswouldofferwasa “significant”reductioninviolence.In
addition,nobodycanbesurewhatwillemergefromtheinter-Af-
ghantalks.ElementsoftheliberaldemocracythatAmericaat-
temptedtobuildinAfghanistanareboundtobedismantled.By
makingpeacewiththeTalibanonsuchwoollyterms,Americais
ineffectconcedingthatitcannotwinthewar,andthatthevery
groupthatshelteredOsamabinLadenandrepressedAfghans
withabrutalformofIslamicgovernmentshouldonceagain
havea bigsayinhowthecountryisrun.
Sucha humiliationwillbeworthitaslongasbloodshedde-
creasesandthelotofordinaryAfghansimproves.That,inturn,
dependsontheseriousnessandsincerityofallinvolved.Many
fearthattheTalibanarefeigninginterestinpeace,andintendto

seizecontrolofthegovernmentbygunorguileassoonasthegis

aregone.OthersfearthatPresidentDonaldTrumpdoubtstheTa-

liban’strustworthiness,too,butispushingonregardlesssoasto

securea foreign-policy“victory”toburnishhisre-electioncam-

paign.Theentirepeaceagreement,bythisinterpretation,isa

figleaftodisguiseanabjectAmericansurrender.

ThatwouldnotjustbethecrowninghumiliationforAmerica;

itwouldconsignAfghanistantoevengreatermisery.Thecivil

warwouldintensify,asregionalpowerssoughttotakeadvan-

tageofAmerica’sabsencebyfunnellingarmstotheirAfghanal-

lies.AndtheTalibancouldreverttotheiroldways,barringgirls

fromschool,banningmusic,stoningadulterersandsoon.

Thepeaceagreementtriestoguardagainstsucha dismalout-

comebystringingoutAmerica’sdeparture.The

withdrawalwillstop,America’sgeneralsinsist,

if theTalibanappeartobetakingthemfora ride.

America will keep warplanesin Afghanistan

duringthetalks,tosupportgovernmentforces

if theTalibanresumetheoffensive.

The deterrent has tobe credible for this

week’sagreementtohaveanyvalue.MrTrump’s

last-minutedisavowalofa previousversionof

theaccordmayhavehelped,byshowingthatheisnotprepared

toacceptpeaceonanyterms.Butevenonitswayout,America

willhavetomaintainanactiveroleinAfghanpoliticstoseethe

inter-Afghantalkstoa fruitfulend.Atthemoment,it isnotclear

wholeadsthegovernment:twocandidateshaveclaimedthejob

ofpresidentaftera disputedelection.Americawillnotonlyhave

toknockheadstogetcivilianpoliticianstopresenta vaguelyun-

itedfront,butalsocajolethemtogivetheTalibanconcessions

thattheyhavebeenhopingtoavoid.

Thesigningofthepeaceaccord,inshort,ismoreofa begin-

ningthananend.It doesatleastputanendinsight.ButAmerica

willhavetosticktoitsgunsif it istohaveanyhopeofpersuading

theTalibantolaydowntheirs. 7

This way out

America and the Taliban have struck a deal. Now for the hard part

The war in Afghanistan

T

hey might not admit it, but Argentina and the imfhave
things in common. Both are under new management. Presi-
dent Alberto Fernández took office in December, two months
after Kristalina Georgieva became head of the fund. Both leaders
want to clean up the mess they inherited. Argentina has failed to
prosper after decades of debt-binges. The imfhas repeatedly
bailed it out. The most recent, botched, rescue in 2018 was the
21st time it has become entangled in the country. Now talks are
under way to sort out Argentina’s finances once again. At stake
are the prospects of 45m Argentines, a mountain of money and
the credibility of Ms Georgieva’s mission to reinvent the imf.

The imf is Argentina’s biggest creditor, holding $44bn of the

$100bn-odd wad of foreign-law debt that Argentina wants to re-

negotiate. Last week the fund made clear that the country’s debt

is unsustainable. Borrowing is approaching 90% of gdp. The

country is reeling from the plunge in the peso, shrivelling re-

serves and a bitter recession. The belt-tightening required to re-

pay all the debts was neither “economically nor politically feasi-

ble”, the fund said.

The easy bit that follows from this—which both Argentina

and the imf agree on—is beating up private creditors, who over

the years have been as credulous as voters and the imf’s techno-

New partners, old dance

The imfhas told Argentina’s creditors some harsh truths. Now its government must hear some

Argentina and the IMF