The Economist 29Feb2020

TheEconomistFebruary 29th 2020 19

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fghanistan and optimism do not
tend to go hand in hand, so the mood of
quiet anticipation around the country in
recent days has been striking. Afghans
hope that America and the insurgents of
the Taliban, who have been fighting one
another for more than 18 years, will sign a
peace deal on February 29th. That, in turn,
hinges on whether the week-long “reduc-
tion in violence” that the two sides have
promised is maintained until then. Even if
the agreement is indeed signed as planned,
however, peace remains a long way off.
The partial truce began on February
22nd, the product of more than 18 months
of negotiations between the Taliban and
America in Qatar. The two sides did not
make public exactly how peaceful they ex-
pected one another to be, and America and
its allies in natohave not revealed their
count of violent incidents. Afghan news re-
ports say the Taliban are expected to spare
towns and cities, as well as military bases

and highways. The Taliban leadership told

its fighters to “remain defensively alert”

but “strictly refrain from entering enemy

territory”. Afghan and American forces, for

their part, said they would shoot only in

self-defence, although they also vowed to

continue fighting the Afghan wing of Is-

lamic State.

Both sides seem to be sticking to these

terms. According to the Afghanistan An-

alysts Network, a research group, a typical

February in recent years has seen an aver-

age of 57 breaches of the peace every day.

Afghan journalists reckon that since the

truce began, clashes have fallen by more

than 90%, to three or four a day. Although

some Afghan soldiers and civilians have

been killed, there have been far fewer

deaths than usual, and no recriminations

from either side. General Scott Miller, the

commander of natoforces, spoke on Feb-

ruary 25th of a “downward trend in vio-

lence” which was “great for Afghanistan”.

The logic of the reduction in violence is

twofold. First, the lull is a trust-building

measure, to show the Taliban are serious

about peace even if they are not prepared to

agree to a complete ceasefire. Second, the

calm is intended to demonstrate that the

militants can control their fighters—a sub-

ject in some doubt, since the bigger conflict

subsumes all manner of local disputes and

tribal rivalries.

As The Economist went to press, it

seemed likely that the truce would hold,

and that the signing of the peace agree-

ment would go ahead as planned in Doha,

the capital of Qatar. The outlines of the deal

remain as they were in September, when

President Donald Trump abruptly called off

talks in anger at continued Taliban attacks.

America will quickly reduce its troops in

Afghanistan from about 12,000 to about

8,600. In exchange, the Taliban will pro-

Afghanistan

Can it be?

KABUL
America and the Taliban prepare to sign a peace deal

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