20 Asia The EconomistFebruary 29th 2020
21mise not to give shelter to foreign terrorists
groups such as al-Qaeda, and to begin ne-
gotiations with civilian politicians and
other community leaders about how Af-
ghanistan should be run. During those ne-
gotiations, America will trim its garrison
further. The ultimate goal is some sort of
power-sharing agreement between Afghan
politicians and the Taliban, an end to all
hostilities and a withdrawal of all, or al-
most all, American troops.
American officials deny that Mr Trump
is running for the door. The troop with-
drawal will be “conditions-based”, insists
Mark Esper, the secretary of defence. But
exactly what those conditions are—and
what happens if they are breached—has
not been disclosed. The Taliban, too, have
tried to persuade sceptics of their sincerity.
Sirajuddin Haqqani, their fearsome deputy
leader, best known for ordering indis-
criminate car-bombings, used the opinion
pages of the New York Timesto declare his
desire for an end to violence and the cre-
ation of an inclusive government.
Forging a political agreement among
the Taliban, the government and Afghani-
stan’s many warlords and powerbrokers
will be extremely hard, however. Sympto-
matic of the difficulties is a fierce row
about who should be president. After a
five-month count, the election commis-
sion recently declared that Ashraf Ghani
had been re-elected in a vote that took
place in September. His main rival, Abdul-
lah Abdullah, disputes the results and says
he is forming his own government.
“It is time to focus not on electoral poli-
tics, but on taking steps toward a lasting
peace,” America’s State Department de-
clared in a statement on February 25th. Mr
Ghani has agreed to postpone his inaugu-
ration, American officials said, presum-
ably to allow time to iron out the dispute.
Bigger arguments loom. “What kind of
political system will there be and who will
be grabbing the most part of the govern-
ment, or the authority,” says Abdul Hakim
Mujahid, a Taliban official turned peace-
campaigner. “This will be the field of com-
petition.” On one side are Afghans who
want the Taliban to accept the current
democratic constitution, with its protec-
tions for women and minorities. But some
Taliban hardliners view the status quo as
the product of American occupation, and
want to reimpose the Islamic “emirate” the
Taliban ran in the 1990s.
Whatever happens next, Afghans wel-
come the current respite. In some war-bat-
tered districts it has been celebrated with
spontaneous sports matches and dancing.
Mobile-phone service has also been re-
stored in territory where it is frequently cut
by militants. “We are thirsty for peace,”
says Muhammad Ehsan, a politician from
Kandahar. “It’s a priority for us.” The coun-
try is holding its breath. 7T
he presidentofKazakhstan,Kas-
sym-Jomart Tokayev, likes to bang on
about political reform. The oil-rich
Central Asian country’s rubber-stamp
parliament needs an opposition, he says,
and its citizens need greater freedom to
form political parties and hold peaceful
protests. But when Zhanbolat Mamay, a
31-year-old documentary-maker, took Mr
Tokayev at his word and tried to set up a
new force called the Democratic Party, he
found himself behind bars after com-
plaining about harassment of his sup-
porters. When the party called off its
founding congress and called for a public
protest instead, a further 70 members
were detained. The handful who made ittotheprotestsite,including Mr Mamay’s
wife, were arrested on the spot.
It was a busy weekend for the police,
who detained scores more demonstra-
tors at separate protests organised by
Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan, a
banned movement led by a rich Kazakh,
Mukhtar Ablyazov, who lives in France.
In Almaty the detainees included Erik
Zhumabayev, a disabled man who at-
tended a demonstration in his wheel-
chair. A prominent activist, Dulat Agadil,
died in custody in Nur-Sultan, the capi-
tal, a few days later. That brought more
protesters onto the streets, leading to
more arrests.
The detentions followed the govern-
ment’s publication of a bill ostensibly
intended to loosen restrictions on free
assembly, but which critics say would
actually impose new ones. Some 5,000
people were arrested at pro-democracy
rallies last year. The demonstrations
began after Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kaz-
akhstan’s strongman of 30 years, abrupt-
ly resigned, handing power to Mr To-
kayev with little pretence of a democratic
transition. Mr Nazarbayev, who still pulls
the political strings, has never shown
any tolerance of dissent. Mr Tokayev
likes to paint himself as a reformer,
poised to overhaul the old order. The
latest clampdown sends “a clear mes-
sage” that liberalisation is not on the
cards, says Mr Mamay, who was released
after two days’ detention. He plans to try
again to form his new party, but no doubt
hopes not to have to do so from a cell.Democracyisonitsway
Political reform in KazakhstanALMATY
But the riot police seem to have arrived firstNot democratic, and no partyA
s they waitedinside headquarters to
hear whether Future Forward would be
dissolved, supporters of the plucky opposi-
tion party queued to buy its merchandise.
For those already in possession of an
orange t-shirt or cap, there were bags and
umbrellas, as well as mugs reading “Keep
calm and love democracy”. Purchases
raised money for the party. But it was pre-
cisely Future Forward’s funding methods
that led the constitutional court to dissolveit later in the afternoon of February 21st.
At issue was Future Forward’s accept-
ance of a loan of 191m baht ($6.1m) from
Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, a car-
parts billionaire who leads the party, ahead
of last year’s parliamentary election. Elec-
toral law caps contributions from individ-
uals at 10m baht, but Future Forward ar-
gued that a loan was a distinct category, not
covered by this rule. The court disagreed,
and judged the loan illegal. It disbandedBANGKOK
The courts ban the country’s third-biggest political partyThai politicsToo forward