Flight International 09Mar2020

THIS WEEK

flightglobal.com 3-9 March 2020 | Flight International | 11

SAA organisation is

‘dire’, says auditor

Air Transport P

PROPULSION MAX KINGSLEY-JONES LONDON

Why ANA defection should rattle Rolls

Engine manufacturer now faces anxious wait for Emirates powerplant selection on 787s, with GE a strong contender

W

hen Emirates finally
announces its powerplant
selection for the Boeing 787s
ordered at last year’s Dubai air
show, success will be crucial for
Rolls-Royce if it is to prove to the
industry that its Trent 1000 is not
a spent force.
The UK engine manufacturer’s
image has been tarnished amid the
ongoing problems with the Trent
variant that powers the 787. Prob-
lems with the durability of the
Trent 1000’s turbine blades have
required a redesign and created
huge reliability and operational
headaches for operators – not to
mention cost the UK company
millions in compensation.
Speaking in November last
year, R-R chief executive Warren
East said that restoring customer
confidence in the Trent 1000 was
his “top priority”. But Derby’s
Trent woes continued when All
Nippon Airways (ANA) – origi-
nal launch customer for the
Dreamliner and the first adopter
of the Trent 1000 – selected the
rival GE Aviation GEnx power-
plant for a new 787 order. The
Japanese carrier operates 71 787s,
all powered by the Trent, but its
new batch of 15 aircraft (plus five
options) arriving from fiscal year
2022 will have GE powerplants.

RISK MANAGEMENT
ANA has not publicly linked the
decision to switch engine vendor
to the Trent’s issues, although its
ascribing the move to supplier di-
versification is a nod towards it:
“As the 787 becomes a larger
share of our fleet size, we have
made the decision to diversify
some of the components to mini-
mise single-source risks,” it says.
Nonetheless, the ANA move is
the latest in a worrying trend for
R-R. Air New Zealand similarly
switched to GE for its new batch
of 787s last May. Then chief ex-
ecutive Christopher Luxon said
of the GE selection: “Clearly as
we look at that engine with that
fuel efficiency with the 787-

0

200

400

600

800

1,

Rolls-Unannounced

Royce

GE

Aviation

Boeing 787 deliveries

and orders

Deliveries On order

Source: Cirium fleets data

905

476

103

we just thought it was a great

combination. It was a pretty com-

pelling offer from GE as well.”

R-R also lost a Trent customer

to GE in 2018 when Hawaiian Air

cancelled its order for Airbus

A330-800s – where the Trent

7000 is the only engine offered –

for GEnx-powered 787s.

“The All Nippon decision is a

significant blow to the Trent 1000

market, as ANA is the largest oper-

ator and was the launch customer

for the 787 and for the Trent 1000,”

says Rob Morris, global head of

consultancy at Ascend by Cirium.

“It appears to signal that no

matter how good a deal Rolls-

Royce offers, it is not enough to

overcome the operational disrup-

tion caused for key customers.”

Morris points out that ANA is

not a customer for R-R’s “Total-

Care” flight-hours maintenance

programme. The last new custom-

ers to choose R-R for their 787s

were Lufthansa, which confirmed

its order for Trent 1000 TENs for

20 787-9s in March 2019, and

South Korean start-up Air Premia

last April. Although Lufthansa is a

committed R-R customer, with

Trent engines powering its A330s

and A380s (as well as being sole

source on its A340-600s and

A350s), that selection was a cru-

cial win for the UK manufacturer.

GE LEADS

Cirium data shows that total 787

orders stand at 1,484 aircraft,

with R-R engines powering or

selected for one-third. GE has a

61% share, with the remainder

yet to be announced.

While the Emirates selection

for its Dubai order of 30 787-9s

will be a key test, there are com-

plicating factors that might influ-

ence the selection. The deal in-

volved a substitution of the 787s

for a similar number of GE-

powered 777s, which could tip

Emirates in Cincinnati’s direc-

tion. However, officially Emirates

has not yet declared its selection.

Morris says the Emirates 787

engine competition “may be a

challenge for Rolls-Royce, given

the Trent 900 performance issues

on the A380”.

He is not optimistic for suc-

cess at other customers where a

selection is outstanding: “We ex-

pect the undecided orders of

Bamboo (which already leases

GEnx- powered 787-9s), Okay

Airways, Donghai and Ruili will

all go to GE.”

So with Emirates likely to be

the only big order left where R-R

could have a chance, failure here

would leave it “with a lower than

anticipated market share and a

significant challenge to rebuild

that”, says Morris. ■

Japanese carrier is largest Dreamliner operator, having launched services using UK-built Trent 1000s

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