32 | Flight International | 3-9 March 2020 flightglobal.comUNMANNED SYSTEMS
Cover story❯❯
The Lockheed Martin F-35 faces three major
challenges that cannot be overcome by yet fur-
ther investment. It is too complex to maintain
high readiness rates, suffers from very short
range and costs vastly more than the Kratos
Defense & Security Solutions XQ-58A Valkyrie,
an experimental unmanned air vehicle (UAV) that
can carry out many of the F-35’s tasks while be-
ing much more survivable in a modern conflict.
First, the F-35’s complexity reduces its
reliability. Twenty-six years after the Joint Strike
Fighter programme started, Robert Behler, US
Department of Defense (DoD) director for
operational test and evaluation, noted: “No
F-35 variant meets the specified reliability rate”
of 65% and the aircraft were “breaking more
often and taking longer to fix”. He also report-
ed that the jets “lagged” by “a large margin”
the more complete measure of full mission-
capable status.
Second, the F-35A has an operational range
of about 675nm (1,250km), while China can
deploy numerous UAVs, ballistic and cruise mis-
siles with ranges that greatly exceed it. Today,
Chinese forces could attack US bases in the first
and second island chains with a mix of missiles
and drones.
This means the F-35 can only operate safely
from bases too distant for it to join the fight with-
out extensive tanker support. Yet the tankers are
not stealthy and the Chinese have developed
tactics and weapons specifically to destroy them.
If tankers are unavailable because of high risks,
the F-35 cannot join the fight at all.
But the biggest issue for the fighter is the
fact that new, cheaper emerging technologycan outperform it in key areas for a fraction of
the cost. The XQ-58A is capable of being
launched and recovered without a runway, is
stealth configured (but not coated), has a range
of 3,000nm, a cruising speed of Mach 0.72, and
can carry 270kg (600lb) of ordnance internally- either two small-diameter bombs or two air-
to-air missiles.
In stealth mode, the orders-of-magnitude
more expensive F-35 can only carry eight small
diameter bombs or four air-to-air missiles.
Lockheed recently announced it has a proto-
type rack that can increase the load to six air-to-
air missiles. Further, Lot 13 of the F-35A will cost
$80 million per aircraft. However, this is not the
final cost, since testing continues to find faults
that need to be fixed.
Each F-35 had a projected service life of
8,000h at $44,000 per flight hour in fiscal year
2018, dropping to $34,000 by FY2024. Thus the
lifetime cost for purchasing and operating an
F-35A is between $352 million (if it meets cost
reduction goals) and $432 million. In contrast,
Kratos has offered to sell the Valkyrie for $2 mil-
lion per aircraft in lots of 100. And since it is au-
tonomous, each Valkyrie does not require flight
hours every month to keep pilots proficient.
Besides, this does not include the tremen-
dous savings the autonomous Valkyrie gains
from eliminating the personnel costs associated
with the pilot, much of the maintenance team
and the airfield. Nor does it include the person-
nel training pipeline costs for these specialities - or their retirement and healthcare costs.
The USA could probably buy well over 300
X-58As for the fully loaded cost of one F-35. In
short, four Valkyries can deliver the same pay-
load to over twice the range for about one-
fortieth of the lifetime costs of an F-35A. And
because of their range, Valkyries can strike
many targets the F-35 simply cannot reach.
Even more importantly, the Valkyrie can
defeat the Chinese reconnaissance/strike
complex. Unlike the F-35, it does not require an
easily located and targeted fixed base. To
increase its survivability, Kratos is experiment-
ing with using a standard shipping container to
launch the Valkyrie. Thus it can remain hidden
in the container until just before launching. This
capability means the UAV can launch from
almost any flat surface and recover at another
location. It can also operate from ranges ex-
ceeding many of China’s weapons systems.
The XQ-58A obviously has only a fraction of
the capabilities of the F-35 but it outperforms
it dramatically in two areas – range and
survivability on the ground. The F-35’s
capabilities are irrelevant if it cannot range the
fight or survive attacks on its airfields. The fact
that the Valkyrie can survive on the ground and
has the range to get to the fight certainly
means it can be a partner for the F-35 and,
sometime in the not too distant future, its
successor will replace the F-35. ■
TX Hammes is a Distinguished Research
Fellow at the USA’s National Defense
University. The views expressed are his
own and do not reflect the official policy
or position of the National Defense
University, the DoD, or the government.
He is the author of Deglobalization and
International SecurityANALYSIS TX HAMMES WASHINGTON DCF-35 versus Valkyrie: balancing range, payload, cost and survivability on the ground
Manned fighter
is vulnerable
to attackUS Air Force