30. SPOKES IN THE WHEEL
American public opinion was losing its hostility to the Kremlin like
snow off a dyke. People saluted what Gorbachëv had done for peace in
the world. Surveys also confirmed that most of the electorate also
looked favourably upon Reagan’s moves to conciliation with the USSR.
There was enthusiasm for a President and General Secretary who
appeared on the brink of making the Cold War a thing of the past.
Those among Reagan’s officials who were nervous about this found
their influence on the wane. Ill health forced Casey’s retirement as head
of the CIA in November 1986 after he collapsed at his home on the
very day he was scheduled to testify before Congress about the
Iran-Contra affair; he died of a brain tumour the following May. Acting
Director Robert Gates changed little in the agency’s analysis. The CIA
estimated that Soviet debts to foreign countries in real terms were only
sixteen per cent above their level in 1985 since the Kremlin wanted to
avoid the trap that had caught countries in Eastern Europe. But the
consequence was a fall in the volume of those imports so badly needed
for industrial re-equipment and consumer satisfaction. The Politburo
hoped to encourage joint ventures with capitalist firms. The idea was
that such firms would have an interest in making their investment work
for them, which would help to revive the Soviet economy.^1 Discussion
in the CIA allowed for the possibility that the Kremlin might give East-
ern Europe the freedom to sign deals with West European businesses.
Gorbachëv at the same time pursued a newly pragmatic policy in the
Third World. The CIA thought it unwise to apply further pressure for
fear of driving him off the path of reform in foreign policy. His contin-
uation in office seemed to suit American national interests.^2
Weinberger in April 1987 nevertheless accused the KGB of ‘massive
espionage’ at the American embassy in Moscow. With an extravagant
flourish, he likened such penetration to the violent occupation of
the Tehran embassy by the National Revolutionary Guard.^3 In August
he wrote in the New York Times attacking those organizations like the