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of war had broken out between Latvia and Russia, though the dispute did not seem to
escalate to armed conflict between the nations. On July 22, Finnish officials reported
proof of Russian mobilization, in part as a show of force to place pressure on Estonia
and Latvia.
Coding changes: Start Date changed from June 25, 1921. End Date changed from
November 25, 1921.
MID#23
Dispute Number: 2 3
Date(s): September 19, 1939 to September 28, 1939
Participants: 365 Russia/366 Estonia
Outcome (and Settlement): Yield by side B (Negotiated)
Fatalities: None
Narrative: Estonia provided a potential buffer for Moscow in light of German threats
and provided an ice-free access into the Baltic, something the Russians lacked. The
Soviets initially offered military assistance, should war break out, but Estonia affirmed
its neutrality and refused the offer from Moscow. The bargaining between Russia and
Estonia changed in the summer of 1939. No support was coming from the British
and the French as both tried to negotiate agreements with the Soviet Union regarding
the broader European situation. Worse still, the Soviets and Germans concluded the
Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact in August 1939, putting Estonia firmly in the Soviet sphere
of influence.
Facing little resistance or opposition from the other major powers, the Soviets decided
to coerce compliance with Estonia. The Soviets blockaded Estonia on September 20
following Russian accusations that the port at Tallinn let a Polish submarine escape
Soviet capture. The Soviets soon demanded that Estonia permit Soviet control of
waterways, ostensibly for their own security. The situation worsened when reports
trickled in that a Soviet ship was torpedoed by a ship of unknown origin. Anxious,
the Estonians eventually relented to Russian demands on September 28. Both sides
signed a “mutual assistance” pact, negotiating control of three islands off Estonia to
the Soviets for naval bases and airfields with added provisions for trade. The Russians
revised the terms when it became apparent that they needed, or wanted, more control
in the Baltic. The terms were ratified on October 4. With control of the Estonian Baltic
ports secured, the Soviets turned their attention to Latvia and, especially, Finland. The
Winter War followed, and Estonia formally became a client state in June 1940.
Coding changes: Start Date changed from March 1939. End Date changed from
October 18, 1939. Outcome changed from Yield by side B.
MID#505
Dispute Number: 505
Date(s): June 10, 1940 to June 17, 1940
Participants: 365 Russia/366 Estonia
Outcome (and Settlement): Victory for side A (Imposed)
Fatalities: None