2020-02-10 Bloomberg Businessweek

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◼ REMARKS Bloomberg Businessweek February 10, 2020

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● Asepidemicsspreadwith

unprecedentedspeed,publicpolicy

is notkeepingpace

● ByBrianBremner,RobertLangreth,

andJamesPaton

Intheevolutionaryarmsracebetweenhumanityandthe

microbes,thebugsaremakinga comeback.Yes,we’vecon-

quereddiseasessuchassmallpoxandpolio,anddeaths

fromcommunicablediseaseshavebeenfallingworldwide.

Butsince1970,morethan1,500newpathogenshavebeen

discovered,accordingtotheWorldHealthOrganization,

and“epidemicsinthe21stcenturyarespreadingfasterand

fartherthanever.Outbreaksthatwerepreviouslylocalized

cannowbecomeglobalveryrapidly.”

Inlate 2002 anairborneillness,dubbedsevereacute

respiratory syndrome, emerged in China’s southern

Guangdongprovince,thenquicklyspreadacrosstheborder

andkilled 774 peoplefromAsiatoCanada.In 2009 a novel

influenzavirus,H1N1,advancedworldwideinnineweeks

andmayhaveresultedinasmanyas575,000fatalities.The

newvirusfromcentralChinathat’ssparkedglobalalarm,a

coronavirusknownas2019-nCoVanda closecousintoSARS,

reached fourcontinentsinaboutfiveweeks.

As newerthreatssurface,suchasMiddleEastrespiratory

syndrome(MERS)in2012,olderscourgeslikecholera,plague,

and yellowfeverflareupwithdisturbingregularity.Even

worse, theantibioticsthatrevolutionizedhealthcareinthe

last centuryarelosingtheirpunchasnewstrainsofinfec-

tious diseases,especiallytuberculosis,becomemoreresistant

to multidrugtreatments.“We’vecreatedaninterconnected,

dynamicallychangingworldthatprovidesinnumerable

opportunitiestomicrobes,”saysRichardHatchett,a former

U.S. adviseronpublichealthemergenciesandheadofthe

CoalitionforEpidemicPreparednessInnovationsinOslo.“If

there’s weaknessanywhere,there’sweaknesseverywhere.”

Therichworldhasthescientificsmartstoimproveglobal

biosecurity.And,infact,there’sbeenrealprogress,withbet-

terinformationsharingandtheintroductionofimproved

gene-sequencingtechnologies.What’smissingisa long-

termfocus.Witheachnewoutbreakcomesglobalpanicand

momentaryresolve,onlytogivewaytostudiedinactiononce

thecrisissubsides.We’renowherenearbeingpreparedfora

truepandemic,suchaswouldoccurif deadlybirdflumutated

tobecomemoretransmissiblebetweenhumans.

MicrosoftCorp.co-founderBillGates,whosefoundation

hasspentvastsumsdevelopingvaccinesanddrugsagainst

emergingstrainsandpromisedupto$100milliontorespond

totheepidemic,warnedina 2018speechthatthe“world

needstoprepareforpandemicsinthesameseriouswayit

preparesforwar.”Wecertainlyweren’tonwarfootingfor

theviraloutbreakinChina.

Oneobviouslessonistheneedtoshutdownorheavily

regulatefoodmarketswhereliveanimalsandfreshlyslaugh-

tered,unwrappedmeatcommingleamidthrongsofshop-

pers.Theseso-calledwetmarkets,commoninChinaand

SoutheastAsia,areunsanitaryandteemwithgerms,mak-

ingthemtheperfectbreedinggroundfordeadlypathogens.

About70%ofallpathogensidentifiedinthepast 50 years

areofanimalorigin,andthenovelcoronaviruscausing

havocinChinais closelyrelatedtostrainsknownforinfect-

ingprimarilybats,pigs,andotherspecies.It hastheability

tomigratefromanimalstohumans—andfromonehuman

toanother.

Manyearlycaseshavebeenlinkedtoa marketinWuhan

thatsoldwildanimalsforfood.“Ithinktheyshouldclose

themall,”saysMarie-PauleKieny,directorofresearchat

Inserm,France’snationalhealthresearchorganization.

“There’snorisk-proofworld,butasmuchaspossible,

reducingthethreatis thewaytogo.”

Anothertargetisbetterlivestockmanagementinless

developedpartsoftheworld,especiallyIndia,whereover-

useofantibioticsbypoultryproducershasgivenriseto

antibiotic-resistant bacteria, a 2016 Bloomberg News inves-

tigation showed. Some 2 billion people don’t have access

to toilets; inadequate sanitation results in 432,

We’re Not

Ready for This