◼ ECONOMICS Bloomberg Businessweek February 10, 202030
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinis takinga page
fromDonaldTrump’stough-on-immigrationplay-
book.That’sbadforpeoplelikeUmedandmillions
ofmigrantsfromotherformerSovietrepublics
who’veflockedtoRussiainsearchofwork.The
Tajikistannative,whodeclinedtogivehisfull
name,hadbeenworkingasa deliverydriverin
Russiawhenhewasdeportedin2015.“Theydon’t
wantMuslimstoliveinthecountry,”saysUmed,
whonowresidesinKazakhstan.
ImmigrantsareRussia’sbesthopetoreplenish
a 75million-strongworkforcethat’sshrinkingby
800,000peoplea year.Yettheirnumbersarebarely
growingasPutin’sgovernmenthastightenedregu-
lations,largelyinanattempttocurbthenumberof
migrantsfromCentralAsia.Thisis a majorheadache
forRussiancompanies,manyofwhicharestruggling
tofilljobseventhoughtheeconomyis stagnant.To
copewitha shortageofdrivers,fooddeliveryservice
Yandex.Eatsplanstodeploysuitcase-sizerobotsthat
willtakeorderstoapartmentbuildingentrances.
GrocerychainMagnitisplasteringflyersaround
apartmentblocksandputtingadsinlocalnewspa-
pershopingtolurestay-at-homemothersandstu-
dentstotakepart-timeshifts.
“Business needs theextra manpower,but
theauthoritiesaredesperatetoavoidprovoking
voteranger”aheadof2024,whenPutinfacesthe
challengeofhowtostayinpoweronceheruns
upagainstpresidentialtermlimits,saysAlexei
Makarkin,deputy director of the Centerfor
PoliticalTechnologies,a researchorganization
inMoscow.“Timesarehard,andthat’sbolster-
inganti-immigrantsentiment.”Athisannualpress
conferenceinDecember,Putinsaidthelargenum-
berofmigrantsfromCentralAsiaprovokes“irrita-
tionamongthelocalpopulation.”
Justtwoyearsagoheboastedthathisgovern-
menthadmanagedtoreversethedemographic
slump triggered by the collapse of the Soviet Union.
But in his most recent state-of-the-nation speech
he warned of a fresh population crisis. “We have
entered a very difficult demographic period,” Putin
said, unveiling benefits to encourage families to
have more children. “Russia’s future, her historical
prospects, depend on how many of us there are.”
In 2018, as the flow of migrants fell to its lowestpointin 13 years,Russia’spopulationrecordedits
firstdipsince2008—adeclinethatcontinuedlast
year.By 2050 thenationofapproximately 146 mil-
lioninhabitantswillhave 10 millionfewerpeople,
accordingtoRussianandUnitedNationsforecasts.
Russiahasmadehugestridesincurbingalco-
holconsumptionandsmoking,boostinglifeexpec-
tancytomorethan 73 years,froma lowof 65 soon
afterPutincametopower.Thegovernmenthas
hadlesssuccessinraisingthebirthrate.It plunged
to1.2birthsperwomanatonepointinthe1990s,
whichis whyRussiasuffersa shortageofwomen
ofchildbearingage.Andwhiletherateis nowcom-
parabletothatofWesternEuropeannations,it
remainsbelowtheso-calledreplacementrate.
“Migrationshouldbethetoppriority,”says
AnatolyVishnevsky,directoroftheInstituteof
DemographyattheHigherSchoolofEconomicsin
Moscow.Yettheforeign-bornpopulationis static:
It was 12 millionin 2019 (equalto8%ofthetotal),
thesameasin2000,accordingtoUNestimates.In
theU.S.it rosefrom 35 millionto 51 millionoverthe
sameperiod.
Thedemographicsituationcouldbe“turned
aroundif theauthoritiesdidn’tworryabouta back-
lash,”Vishnevskysays.Thebulkofmigrantworkers
inRussiahailfromCentralAsia,butstrictcontrols
blockmostfromacquiringcitizenshiporevenlong-
termresidencypapers—andtheruleshavebeen
tighteningforthepastfiveyears.Regulationsintro-
ducedin 2015 requirethoseapplyingforlong-term
workpermitstopassa Russian-languageexamand
obtainmedicalinsurance.Feesfortemporarywork-
ingpaperscantotalabout5,000rubles($80)per
month.Theentiresystemis riddledwithcorrup-
tion,sayimmigrant-rightsadvocates.
Thegovernmenthastriedtolureasmanyaspos-
sibleofthe 30 millionnativeRussianspeakersliving
outsidethecountry’sborders,yetinthepastdozen
years less than 1 million so-called compatriots have
accepted Moscow’s invitation to resettle. (That num-
ber doesn’t include 227,000 inhabitants of Eastern
Ukraine who agreed in 2019 to become citizens of
Russia but may never actually move there.)
Vyacheslav Postavnin, a former deputy head
of the Federal Migration Service, says authori-
ties should be working to ensure immigrants from148m145 m142 m
1991 2019▼ RussiapopulationRussia’s Shrinking Welcome Mat
● Migrants from Central Asia face increasing obstacles to obtaining work permitsPutin first
inaugurated
as president
in 2000