Page 10/The Sun and News, Saturday, March 2, 2024Despite Michigan primary wins, signs of trouble for Trump and Biden
Jonathan Oosting
Bridge Michigan
LANSING — Democrats
who moved up Michigan’s
presidential primary this year
to make the state more rele-
vant succeeded in drawing
more national attention, but
it was not the kind of nation-
al attention many were hop-
ing for.
Instead of a victory lap for
President Joe Biden, who
had requested the calendar
change, Michigan’s unusual-
ly early primary proved to be
a showcase for the “uncom-
mitted” protest vote against
the incumbent Democrat.
While the uncommitted
vote failed to crack 15 per-
cent statewide, national
media flooded Michigan,
particularly Arab American
areas like Dearborn that
became the focal point of
opposition to Biden’s sup-
port for Israel in the Gaza
war.
“Michiganders loved to
deliver messages in their
presidential primaries,” said
pollster Richard Czuba.
“This was probably not the
loudest message we’ve seen
historically, but it was one of
the messages.”
Voters in Kent, Ottawa
and Oakland counties –
which “for decades had been
the breadbasket of
Republican votes” – also
sent a loud message to for-
mer President Donald Trump,
Czuba said.
Former South Carolina
Gov. Nikki Haley won more
than 30 percent of the GOP
primary vote in each of those
counties, showing Trump
could again struggle with
college-educated voters that
cost him the 2020 election,
Czuba said.
For Republicans,
Democrats’ decision to move
the Michigan primary from
early March to late February
forced state officials to adopt
a hybrid caucus system to
avoid delegate penalties from
the national party.
That’s likely good news
for Trump, who is expected
to dominate Saturday cau-
cuses that will actually be
more important than the pri-
mary results for the GOP
nomination.UNCOMMITTED
SENDS A MESSAGE
Biden handily won every
county in Michigan, which
wasn’t surprising because no
top-tier Democrat dared
challenge him in the primary.
But the contest was perhaps
most notable for the number
of voters who did not back
him.
More than 100,
Michiganders voted “uncom-
mitted” in the Democratic
primary, according to unoffi-
cial results, a symbolic ges-ture that for many signaled
their opposition to Biden’s
handling of the ongoing
Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.
By raw numbers, it was an
impressive feat for the
“Listen to Michigan” cam-
paign, which aimed to show
Biden that war critics could
potentially jeopardize his
re-election bid if he doesn’t
do more to stop Palestinian
deaths.
Biden beat Trump by
154,188 votes in Michigan
four years ago, while Trump
won the state by 10,704 votes
in 2016.
So 100,000 uncommitted
votes is significant. And by
topping 15 percent in two
congressional districts, the
uncommitted campaign will
likely send at least some
unbound Michigan delegates
to the national Democratic
convention in August.
“Our movement emerged
victorious tonight and mas-
sively surpassed our expecta-
tions,” Listen to Michigan
organizers said on social
media. “Tens of thousands of
Michigan Democrats, many
of whom voted for Biden in
2020, are uncommitted to his
re-election due to the war in
Gaza.”THE MESSAGE
WASN’T MASSIVE
But at just over 13 percent
of the primary vote, “uncom-mitted” was not hugely con-
sequential by historic stan-
dards in Michigan, where it
has been a relatively popular
option in past elections too.
Point in case: 2012, when
then-President Barack
Obama (and then-Vice
President Biden) ran unop-
posed for the Democratic
nomination. That year, about
11% of Democratic primary
voters cast uncommitted bal-
lots.
Obama went on to win the
general election by nearly 10
percentage points over
Republican nominee Mitt
Romney.
In 2008, 40 percent of
Democratic primary voters
— 238,168 people overall
-— cast uncommitted bal-
lots, largely to show their
support for Obama, who
wasn’t on the Michigan
ballot but won the nomina-
tion.
Organizers of this year’s
uncommitted campaign did a
good job on the public rela-
tions front, but their actual
turnout “was a failure,” said
Democratic strategist Adrian
Hemond, founder of
Grassroots Midwest in
Lansing.
“They barely got more
percentage-wise than they
did in 2012.”
Still, Biden allies say the
president will strive to win
back uncommitted voters by
the fall. They’ll try to do so
by highlighting what Gov.
Gretchen Whitmer this week
called a “stark choice”
between Biden and Trump
on other issues.SUBURBS STILL A
PROBLEM FOR
TRUMP
Trump also won every
county in the state on
Tuesday. He topped 75 per-
cent of the GOP primary vote
in more than a third of them,
including Macomb County,
which has historically been a
bellwether for statewide and
national elections.
The results show Trump
remains especially popular
with Republicans in rural
Michigan. He won two coun-
ties in the Upper Peninsula
— Baraga and Luce — with
more than 80 percent of the
vote.
His worst performance
was in the heavily Democratic
Washtenaw County, where
Trump got 50 percent of the
vote compared to 45 percent
for Haley.
But the real warning signs
for Trump came in vote-rich
Kent and Oakland counties,
which were key to Biden’s
2020 win because suburban
voters there fled Trump in
large numbers, said Czuba,
the pollster.
Haley ended up at 34 per-
cent in Kent and 33 percent
in Oakland, topping her
statewide percentage of 27
percent. Trump still won
both handily — he got 59
percent in Kent and 62 per-
cent in Oakland — but his
victory margins were not as
wide as in many parts of the
state.
Trump “lost 2020 Because
of Oakland and Kent,” Czuba
said. “And here he is again,
with the exact same problemwith Republicans in those
counties. They’ve done noth-
ing to mitigate what cost
them the election in 2020.”
Campaign visits point to
the importance of both
regions. Trump recently held
his first Michigan rally of the
year in Oakland County.
Haley campaigned in
Oakland on Sunday and in
Kent County on Monday.MOST GOP DELE-
GATES AT STAKE IN
SATURDAY CAUCUSES
Because she topped a 12.
percent threshold required by
state party rules, Haley
stands to walk away from
Michigan with at least three
delegates to the Republican
Party’s national nominating
convention in July.
While results are unoffi-
cial, Trump will likely win as
many as 13 Michigan dele-
gates because of his primary
win.
But many more delegates
will be at stake this weekend,
when the Michigan
Republican Party convenes
for a series of congressional
district caucus meetings.
There, party activists will
allocate a total of 39 presi-
dential nominating delegates,
a format experts predict will
heavily favor Trump.
The Michigan GOP adopt-
ed the hybrid delegate plan to
avoid a delegate penalty after
the state’s Democratic-led
Legislature voted to move up
the primary from early March,
in violation of Republican
National Committee rules.
Kent County Judge J.
Joseph Rossi on Tuesday
appeared to settle a bitter
dispute over who will over-
see the Michigan GOP cau-
cus convention and where it
will be held. He ruled
Kristina Karamo was proper-
ly removed as state party
chair last month, meaning
Pete Hoekstra now officially
leads the Michigan GOP.
Hoekstra plans to hold the
caucuses on Saturday in
Grand Rapids at the Amway
Grand Plaza Hotel and has
cautioned activists against
attending a separate Deroit
convention Karamo had
called.213084
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President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump won Michigan’s pres-
idential primaries on Tuesday, but it wasn’t all good news for either.