What happens when everyone has the same opinion
For a long time it was common knowledge that group decision making was
better than individual decision making. Even today we often celebrate
collaborations, consensual decisions and teamwork.
However, as early as 1972 a Yale psychologist, Irving Janis, pointed out
in a spectacular, radical paper that sometimes also groups make very bad
decisions. Janis had studied such debacles as Pearl Harbor or the Vietnam
War. And what he found was that these groups had rejected critical
opinions and outside information.
In the warmth of a like-minded group people reassure themselves that
they are right, that their analysis is superior to that of outsiders, that their
consensus is a sign of the strength of the group, when in fact they have
been looking only for evidence that confirmed their objectives. And any
doubts in the room were silenced because if everyone seems enthusiastic
and agrees with the plan, we will feel reluctant to speak up – even if we
have serious doubts. This, by the way, seems to be one of the governing
principles of Donald Trump’s leadership strategy: surround yourself with
yes-sayers.
Janis called the phenomenon that occurs when the desire for group
consensus is stronger than the urge to express an unpopular opinion
‘Groupthink’. If this happens, the group is at risk of making very poor
decisions. And even more: if many people are too sure of the same thing,
they become radical and imprudent. Researchers have observed this
phenomenon among jury members: the greater the consensus, the harsher
the judgement, and the surer the jury is that its verdict is correct.
When does groupthink occur?
Typically, when there is:
· High group cohesiveness
· High pressure to make a good decision
· Strong, persuasive, directive leadership
How can we avoid groupthink?