The Economist - USA (2020-04-04)

38 Middle East & Africa The EconomistApril 4th 2020

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hiswastobetheweekwhenBinyamin

Netanyahu,theprimeministerofIsra-

el,finally won.Afterthree inconclusive

electionsinthespanofa year,hehadall

butconvincedhisbitterrival,BennyGantz,

tojoinhimingovernment.Therewerestill

somethingstobeworkedout,suchashow

fasttoannexpartsoftheoccupiedWest

Bank,andwhowouldleadthejusticemin-

istryandthusoverseeMrNetanyahu’scor-

ruption trial. But Mr Gantz’s Blue and

Whitepartyhadalreadysplit,withabout

halfitsrepresentatives supportingaco-

alitiondealthatwouldleaveMrNetanyahu

inofficeuntilSeptember2021, whenhe

wouldhandovertoMrGantz.

Alas,theoutbreakofcovid-19isgetting

intheway.OnMarch30thMrNetanyahu

isolatedhimselfafteranaidecamedown

withthevirus.MrNetanyahutestednega-

tiveforthediseaseandleftquarantinedays

later.Buthewentbackintoisolationafter

thehealthministerwasdiagnosedwiththe

virusonApril1st.Boththeaideandthe

ministerareultra-Orthodox.Theoutbreak

isragingamongtheirfellows.

Take theultra-Orthodox city of Bnei

Brak,whichhasthesecond-mostcasesin

Israeldespitebeingitsninth-largestcity.

Ultra-OrthodoxquartersofJerusalemalso

havemoreinfectionsthanneighbouring

ones,underlininghowthevirusisspread-

ingmorequicklyamongthiscommunity,

whichisabout12%ofthepopulation.

ForweeksaftermostIsraelisbeganso-

cial-distancingatthebehestofthegovern-

ment,lifecontinued as normal in ultra-Or-

thodoxcommunities, which retain a large

degreeofautonomy. The study of the Torah

andTalmuddid not stop in ultra-Orthodox

schoolseventhough the rest of Israel’s edu-

cationsystem shut down on March 12th.

Prayerscontinued in crowded synagogues,

despitedatashowing they were hubs of in-

fection.Only at the end of March did ultra-

Orthodoxrabbis, who initially said the “To-

rahprotectsand saves”, at last stop their

followerspraying in public.

Otherfactors made things worse. For

example,the ultra-Orthodox are forbidden

by their rabbis from owning televisions

andradios.They can buy mobile phones,

buttheseare blocked from accessing the

internetandmessaging apps. That meant

thatpublic-health information was slow to

arrive.Manyfailed to receive text messages

sentbythegovernment telling them that

theyhadthevirus. And it was not hard for

theinfectedto spread the disease. The ul-

tra-Orthodox tend to have large families

andoftenlive in cramped quarters. Bnei

Brak is Israel’s most crowded city, with

27,000 residents per square kilometre,

threetimesthe density of Tel Aviv.

MrNetanyahu, who relies on the sup-

portofultra-Orthodox parties, was reluc-

tanttoclosesynagogues. Police were sent

into ultra-Orthodox areas only after the

rabbis themselves ruled that prayers

shouldbeheld in private. On April 1st the

primeminister restricted movement into

andoutofBnei Brak. But some in the city

are ignoring the government, holding

prayersandkeeping study halls open.

For decades the ultra-Orthodox have

beenallowed to run their own affairs, with

governmentfunding. Most neither serve in

thearmynor work. Many Israelis resent

this.Astheultra-Orthodox begin using up

scarcemedical supplies, more questions

willsurelybe asked about their unique po-

sitioninIsraeli society. 7

BNEIBRAK

Israel’sultra-Orthodoxarefailingto

takeprecautions

Faithandcovid-19

Insular,butnot

isolating

Bless you

tolerates no dissent.

Prince Muhammad’s rash persona was

on display days later when opecand Russia

failed to reach a deal on new output curbs.

The prince allegedly overruled his half-

brother, the oil minister, and ordered

Aramco, the state oil company, to boost

production. With the market awash with

oil, prices crashed below $30 a barrel and

may fall further still. Saudi Arabia is tired

of playing swing producer, cutting output

to prop up prices when others refuse to do

the same. Prince Muhammad is also wor-

ried about the future of oil in a world trying

to wean itself off the stuff.

If prices stay low, however, the kingdom

will need to plug a budget shortfall of up to

$2bn a week. It has already cut spending by

50bn rials ($13.3bn), the only g20 member

to trim outlays during the pandemic. Min-

istries have been asked to plan even deeper

cuts. Construction firms say new contracts

have ground to a halt.

Publicly allies have played along. The

state oil company of the United Arab Emir-

ates (uae) pledged to boost its own output

from 3m to 4m barrels a day. In private,

though, Gulf officials fume about a deci-

sion that will blow holes in their budgets.

The uaehas tried, so far without success, to

bring Russia and Saudi Arabia back to ne-

gotiations. So has America. Barely a year

ago President Donald Trump was raging

against opecfor high prices. Now he wants

the cartel to raise them before cheap crude

cripples America’s shale industry. But the

Saudis seem unwilling to budge—even as

covid-19 destroys global demand.

Saudi Arabia moved faster than many

countries to contain the virus. By mid-

March, when it had less than 100 docu-

mented cases, it had grounded inter-

national flights and suspended pilgrim-

ages to Mecca. Thousands of returnees

from abroad were quarantined in pleasant

hotels at state expense and tested. Quick

action seems to have helped. The kingdom

has 1,720 confirmed cases, among the low-

est per-capita numbers in the region.

Still, the economic consequences will

be severe. The effort to switch the Saudi

economy away from oil relies heavily on

private consumption. More than 426,000

Saudis work in retail, which has ground to

a halt. The kingdom started issuing tourist

visas in September and hoped to draw hun-

dreds of thousands of visitors in 2020. Few

are likely to show up. Investment may stall.

The virus may also force Saudi Arabia to

cancel the most important events on its

calendar. The haj, the annual pilgrimage to

Mecca (a once-in-a-lifetime duty for Mus-

lims), is meant to begin in late July. Last

year it drew 2.5m people. Such a crowd is

unlikely while covid-19 rages. On March

31st the minister in charge of pilgrimages

told Muslims not to make travel plans yet.

A government-backed research centre has

published a list of past pilgrimages inter-

rupted by war, bandits and disease. But

cancelling the hajwould have a cost. Mecca

is the largest contributor to gdpafter oil.

As for the g20, three weeks after the

World Health Organisation declared co-

vid-19 a pandemic, the bloc has done little

to co-ordinate a response. Its heavy-

weights, America and China, would rather

bicker with each other. Even the g7, a more

homogeneous bloc, could not reach a joint

statement because of America’s insistence

on calling it the “Wuhan virus”, a name to

which China objects. The crown prince’s

coming-out party may be overshadowed by

further feuding. That is, if it happens at all.

If the virus roars back in the autumn, as

some epidemiologists expect, the summit

might end up not in a gilded ballroom, but

on Zoom. 7