218 CHAPTER 4
L. Gumilev believes that the desert is “hostile” to stock-breeding and does
not study the Middle Asia region. In B. Vainberg’s opinion, however, this con-
tradicts the facts of ancient and medieval history and archaeology, as well as
all the available ethnographic data. The deserts of Middle Asia and the forest-
steppe zone area, which is also excluded from L. Gumilev’s theory, “swallowed”
parts of the nomadic population that passed through the steppes during unfa-
vorable periods, while the stock-breeders from the desert area of Middle Asia
sometimes became engaged in this migration.216 According to B. Vainberg, “the
Pecheneg migration from the Cis-Aral Region cannot be seen as an indication
of the desiccation and alteration of the climate, since their place was occupied
by the Oghuz, who in their turn were ousted by the Kipchaks, and this in gen-
eral indicates something quite different: that the nomads actively fought for
the lands of the Cis-Aral Region during the period between the eighth and the
twelfth centuries”.217 B. Vainberg also rejects the connection that L. Gumilev
makes between the variations in the level of the Caspian Sea and the climate
changes in Eurasia. The sea level did rise during this period, but in the view of
both M. Artamonov and S. Pletneva, as well as according to M. Magomedov,
its waters did not flood the gardens, vineyards and settlements of the Khazar
population living in Dagestan and along the northern coast, where Itil was
located.218
V. Aksenov sees a direct corelation between the destruction of the skel-
etons in the Netailovo necropolis burials in the Severski Donets Valley with
climate changes that occurred during the ninth and the tenth centuries. At
that time, a period of significant humidification began in Europe. The waters
of the Dnieper rose, along with the groundwaters that fed the river. The level
of the groundwaters probably also rose in the area of the Netailovo necropolis.
This could explain the poor condition of the bone remains in it. This change
occurred during the tenth century.219
The increase in humidity could have had a negative impact on the agricul-
tural economy in the Don Region. Thus, L. Gumilev is probably right in assum-
ing that climate changes in the tenth century caused the disruption of the
216 Vainberg 1990, 46–47.
217 Vainberg 1990, 58. According to Kradin 2001b, 23, contemporary paleogeographic data
does not support a direct relation between the periods of desiccation or humidification
of the steppes with those of decay or prosperity of the nomadic empires. See also Pritsak
1981a, 11.
218 Artamonov and Pletneva 1970, 91; Magomedov 1983, 181–182; Vainberg 1990, 58. According
to other researchers, the period of warming and desiccation lasted from the sixth to the
ninth century, with the level of the Caspian Sea remaining low. The forest zone saw little
rain and the rivers were shallow. See Tortika 2006a, 463–466.
219 Aksenov 2006b, 59–60.