16
The historical demography of
Japan to 1700
William Wayne Farris
Population is one the most important variables in history. Demography encompasses the study
of fluctuations in the numbers of persons over time; but also examines vital statistics (fertility,
mortality, and life expectancy), migration, and a whole range of historical phenomena that affect
those factors. As such, population studies may convey an overall sense of the popular well- being
during any given period. It is one of the few disciplines that attempts to embrace all of the popu-
lace, from aristocrats down to slaves.
The period under consideration in this chapter ranges from the Paleolithic Era (35,000 bp) to
about 1700. I chose the latter date because most scholars believe that it represents the end of a
long cycle of population growth and the beginning of stasis. Japanese historical records provide
a wealth of information on this venerable epoch.
During the prehistoric Paleolithic, Jōmon (10,500 bce–900 bce) and Yayoi (900 bce–250 ce),
scholars have used archaeological evidence to evince demographic trends, vital statistics, and pat-
terns of migration. Little is known about population during the Tomb (kofun) epoch (250–650 ce),
but the ensuing two centuries provide the best demographic record for any society in the world
at that time. Evidence is more fragmentary for the Heian period (794–1185), although archaeo-
logical and some written records shed light upon this long era. The Kamakura epoch (1185–1333)
is similarly poorly documented. For the Muromachi (1333–1573), Warring States (1467–1600),
and first century of the Tokugawa era (1600–1868), there is a wealth of archaeological data,
death registers, and village records that help scholars understand these times in their demographic
context. Despite the historiographical riches, controversy swirls around the field for many
periods.
The theory of Japan’s four demographic cycles
In 1983, Kitō Hiroshi propounded an overarching theory to describe population fluctuations in
Japan from the origins of human habitation through the twenty- first century.^1 According to
Kitō, Japan had endured four long cycles of population boom and bust, beginning with the age
of affluent foragers known as the Jōmon. Together, the Paleolithic and Jōmon comprised the first
cycle, with population topping 260,000 around 4,300 bp, and then dropping to about 70,000 at
the end of the Jōmon era.