532 Part VI Learning-Cognitive Theories
most college students have a goal of graduation and are willing to endure stress,
tension, and hard work in order to reach that goal. Rather than reducing tension,
the prospect of several difficult years of college classes promises to increase it.
Other things being equal, people are most strongly reinforced by behaviors
that move them in the direction of anticipated goals. This statement refers to Rotter’s
empirical law of effect, which “defines reinforcement as any action, condition,
or event which affects the individual’s movement toward a goal” (Rotter &
Hochreich, 1975, p. 95).
Rotter’s fifth assumption is that people are capable of anticipating events.
Moreover, they use their perceived movement in the direction of the anticipated event
as a criterion for evaluating reinforcers. Beginning with these five general assump-
tions, Rotter built a personality theory that attempts to predict human behavior.Predicting Specific Behaviors
Because Rotter’s primary concern was the prediction of human behavior, he sug-
gested four variables that must be analyzed in order to make accurate predictions
in any specific situation. These variables are behavior potential, expectancy, rein-
forcement value, and the psychological situation. Behavior potential refers to the
likelihood that a given behavior will occur in a particular situation; expectancy is
a person’s expectation of being reinforced; reinforcement value is the person’s
preference for a particular reinforcement; and the psychological situation refers to
a complex pattern of cues that a person perceives during a specific time period.Behavior Potential
Broadly considered, behavior potential (BP) is the possibility that a particular
response will occur at a given time and place. Several behavior potentials of vary-
ing strengths exist in any psychological situation. For example, as Megan walks
toward a restaurant, she has several behavioral potentials. She might pass by with-
out noticing the restaurant; actively ignore it; stop to eat; think about stopping to
eat, but go on; examine the building and contents with a consideration to purchase
it; or stop, go inside, and rob the cashier. For Megan, in this situation, the poten-
tial for some of these behaviors would approach zero, some would be very likely,
and others would be in between these extremes. How can a person predict which
behaviors are most or least likely to occur?
The behavior potential in any situation is a function of both expectancy and
reinforcement value. If a person wishes to know the likelihood that Megan will
rob the cashier rather than purchase the restaurant or stop to eat, for example, we
could hold expectancy constant and vary reinforcement value. If each of these
behavior potentials carried a 70% expectancy of being reinforced, then a person
could make a prediction about their relative probability of occurrence based solely
on the reinforcement value of each. If holding up the cashier carries a positive
reinforcement value greater than ordering food or buying the restaurant, then that
behavior has the greatest occurrence potential.
The second approach to prediction is to hold reinforcement value constant
and vary expectancy. If total reinforcements from each possible behavior are